José Suárez
OF Peoria Chiefs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKSTL | 327 | .261/.324/.405 | 7 | 8 | 40 | — | .188/.235/.289 |
| 2025 | 20 | ASTL | 366 | .248/.326/.324 | 3 | 17 | 52 | — | .211/.274/.274 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+STL | 391 | .258/.312/.411 | 10 | 26 | 59 | — | .214/.260/.326 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBSTL | 1 | .199/.248/.289 | 0 | 0 | 50 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBSTL | 118 | .204/.256/.305 | 2 | 4 | 57 | -0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 16 | ROK | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 107 | 88 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 295 | 415 | 386 | 801 | 91 | 439 | 29 | 16 | 366 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 141 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 248 | 333 | 496 | 830 | 248 | 315 | 28 | 10 | 356 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 131 | 115 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 200 | 292 | 339 | 631 | 139 | 271 | 32 | 9 | 287 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 173 | 159 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 252 | 312 | 384 | 696 | 132 | 336 | 27 | 7 | 312 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 154 | 140 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 271 | 338 | 429 | 766 | 157 | 366 | 28 | 7 | 342 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 366 | 327 | 81 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 99 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 248 | 326 | 324 | 650 | 76 | 345 | 27 | 8 | 299 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 391 | 360 | 93 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 122 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 258 | 312 | 411 | 723 | 153 | 359 | 31 | 5 | 320 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 107 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 183 | 283 | 226 | 509 | 43 | 286 | 34 | 11 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 145 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 145 | 220 | 276 | 496 | 131 | 190 | 35 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 131 | 120 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 133 | 200 | 233 | 433 | 100 | 223 | 47 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 173 | 163 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 65 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 190 | 237 | 282 | 519 | 92 | 298 | 38 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 154 | 145 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 61 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 186 | 234 | 297 | 530 | 110 | 291 | 40 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 366 | 336 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 135 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 211 | 274 | 274 | 548 | 63 | 340 | 37 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 391 | 365 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 155 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 214 | 260 | 326 | 586 | 112 | 337 | 40 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 107 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 183 | 283 | 226 | 509 | 43 | 293 | 34 | 11 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 16 | ROK RAW | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 107 | 88 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 295 | 415 | 386 | 801 | 91 | 439 | 29 | 16 | 366 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 145 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 145 | 220 | 276 | 496 | 131 | 205 | 35 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 141 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 248 | 333 | 496 | 830 | 248 | 315 | 28 | 10 | 356 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 131 | 120 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 133 | 200 | 233 | 433 | 100 | 228 | 47 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Cardinals | — | 131 | 115 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 200 | 292 | 339 | 631 | 139 | 271 | 32 | 9 | 287 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 307 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 125 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 186 | 235 | 280 | 516 | 94 | 294 | 38 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 327 | 299 | 78 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 89 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 261 | 324 | 405 | 729 | 144 | 350 | 27 | 7 | 326 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 366 | 336 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 135 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 211 | 274 | 274 | 548 | 63 | 345 | 37 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 366 | 327 | 81 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 99 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 248 | 326 | 324 | 650 | 76 | 345 | 27 | 8 | 299 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 391 | 365 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 155 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 214 | 260 | 326 | 586 | 112 | 345 | 40 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 391 | 360 | 93 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 122 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 258 | 312 | 411 | 723 | 153 | 359 | 31 | 5 | 320 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 107 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 183 | 283 | 226 | 509 | 43 | 286 | 34 | 11 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 147 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 143 | 220 | 272 | 492 | 129 | 190 | 35 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 131 | 120 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 133 | 200 | 233 | 433 | 100 | 223 | 47 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 304 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 125 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 188 | 235 | 283 | 518 | 95 | 295 | 38 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 366 | 334 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 135 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 213 | 274 | 275 | 549 | 63 | 340 | 37 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 391 | 365 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 155 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 214 | 260 | 326 | 586 | 112 | 337 | 40 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 304 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 125 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 188 | 235 | 283 | 518 | 95 | 295 | 38 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 366 | 334 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 135 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 213 | 274 | 275 | 549 | 63 | 340 | 37 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 391 | 365 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 155 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 214 | 260 | 326 | 586 | 112 | 337 | 40 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | STL | 0% | 501 | 466 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 178 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 198 | 247 | 290 | 537 | 92 | 299 | 36 | 4 | 243 | 50 | -30 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +11 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | STL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 248 | 289 | 537 | 90 | 301 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 50 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 35% | 340 | 316 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 117 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 204 | 255 | 307 | 562 | 103 | 299 | 34 | 5 | 253 | 57 | -17 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | STL | 35% | 118 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 204 | 256 | 305 | 561 | 101 | 301 | 35 | 5 | 253 | 57 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 118 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 265 | 321 | 586 | 110 | 313 | 35 | 5 | 253 | 48 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 127 | 22 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 226 | 11 | 22 | 6 | 212 | 266 | 323 | 589 | 112 | 314 | 35 | 5 | 253 | 48 | -33 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2034 | 1878 | 363 | 65 | 13 | 29 | 106 | 761 | 36 | 73 | 26 | 193 | 250 | 288 | 538 | 95 | 304 | 37 | 5 | 238 | 48 | -30 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +12 | -2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 116 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 34 | 243 | 12 | 23 | 8 | 193 | 251 | 287 | 538 | 93 | 304 | 37 | 5 | 238 | 48 | -35 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 391 PAwOBA .314 → .255 (−59)K% 31.2% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.20% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 39.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 3.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.30% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 24.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 7.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.40% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .314 → .255; ISO .153 → .115; BABIP .359 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 366 PAwOBA .293 → .245 (−48)K% 27.0% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.20% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.19% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.07% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 27.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 5.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.10% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .293 → .245; ISO .076 → .065; BABIP .345 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 173 PAwOBA .304 → .228 (−76)K% 26.6% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.59% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.89% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.030 | 22.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.08% | ÷1.153 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.030 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×1.030 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.11% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 108, 2B 131, 3B 89, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .304 → .228; ISO .132 → .094; BABIP .336 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Cardinals · 154 PAwOBA .333 → .226 (−107)K% 27.9% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.92% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.043 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 4.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.77% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | ×1.016 | ×0.995 | 21.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.25% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | ×1.016 | ×0.995 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.935 | ×0.720 | ×1.016 | ×0.995 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷0.975 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.28% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .333 → .226; ISO .157 → .105; BABIP .366 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Cardinals · 131 PAwOBA .282 → .188 (−93)K% 32.1% → 46.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.06% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 46.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.29% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.029 | ×1.008 | 18.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.029 | ×1.008 | 2.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.029 | ×1.008 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 4.31% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .282 → .188; ISO .139 → .090; BABIP .271 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Cardinals · 162 PAwOBA .353 → .209 (−143)K% 28.4% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.40% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.88% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.84% | ÷1.003 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 10.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.47% | ÷0.910 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 5.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.32% | ÷1.039 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 2.88% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 82, 3B 119, K 98, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .353 → .209; ISO .248 → .124; BABIP .315 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Cardinals Blue · 107 PAwOBA .361 → .242 (−119)K% 29.0% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.97% | ÷1.048 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.89% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 11.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.84% | ÷1.037 | ×0.680 | ×1.004 | ×1.022 | 24.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.030 | ×0.600 | ×1.004 | ×1.022 | 3.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.004 | ×1.022 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.030 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.82% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .361 → .242; ISO .091 → .049; BABIP .439 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).