Sean Sullivan

P Altoona Curve

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AAPIT	15	13	73	3.84	3.51	18.7%	7.2%	—	K 15.1% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.36
2025	24	MIX4 levels	30	7	68	3.86	4.37	22.8%	10.0%	—	K 19.9% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.54
2026	25	MIX2 levels	12	0	15	2.40	2.03	22.6%	6.5%	—	K 22.6% · BB 6.5% · FIP 2.01
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	11	11	70	4.72	4.72	18.6%	8.7%	0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBPIT	4	4	26	4.57	4.59	19.1%	8.8%	0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBPIT	6	6	40	4.60	4.64	19.3%	9.0%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAaron Northcraft (age 26) · Dakota Hawkins (age 24) · Josh Roeder (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%18.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	15	75	325	84	27	16	75%	3.8	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	4.8%	4.68	5.28	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	15	75	325	84	27	16	75%	3.8	25.8%	8.3%	17.5%	4.9%	4.68	4.71	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	24	21	114	476	97	38	13	88%	4.7	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	3.0%	3.88	4.44	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	24	21	114	476	97	38	13	88%	4.7	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	2.7%	3.88	3.88	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	15	13	73	305	57	22	6	87%	4.8	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	2.8%	3.84	4.36	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	15	13	73	305	57	22	6	87%	4.8	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	2.8%	3.84	4.36	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	15	13	73	305	57	22	6	87%	4.8	18.7%	7.2%	11.5%	2.0%	3.84	3.51	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	7	68	281	64	28	10	23%	2.3	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.7%	3.86	4.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	7	68	281	64	28	10	23%	2.3	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.7%	3.86	4.54	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	30	7	68	281	64	28	10	23%	2.3	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	3.6%	3.86	4.37	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	62	14	4	0	0%	1.2	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	0.0%	2.40	2.01	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	62	14	4	0	0%	1.2	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	0.0%	2.40	2.01	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	15	62	14	4	0	0%	1.2	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	0.0%	2.40	2.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	11	11	70	296	55	26	9	100%	6.4	18.6%	8.7%	10.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.72	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	69	291	56	26	9	100%	6.3	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	3.2%	4.70	4.72	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	67	282	54	25	9	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.0%	10.3%	3.2%	4.73	4.77	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	64	270	52	25	9	100%	6.4	19.3%	9.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.81	4.88	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	4	4	26	110	21	10	3	100%	6.5	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	2.9%	4.57	4.59	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	40	169	33	15	5	100%	6.7	19.3%	9.0%	10.3%	3.0%	4.60	4.64	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	45	190	37	18	6	100%	6.4	19.3%	9.2%	10.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	111	468	90	42	14	100%	6.5	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	3.0%	4.62	4.29	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	162	76	25	100%	6.3	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	3.0%	4.62	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		101	56	344	1449	259	126	49	55%	3.4	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	3.4%	3.98	4.53	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	33	200	842	151	73	28	55%	3.4	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	3.4%	3.98	4.53	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Sullivan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	18.6%	8.7%	3.1%	—	4.79	19.2%	10.2%	200	+0.07	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	87
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	82
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	82
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	82
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	82
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	82
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	79
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	79
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	78
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.82	13.1%	3.7%	116	+0.21	2.84	310	78
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	78
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	78
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	78
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	77
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	77
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	19.1%	8.9%	1.25	4.74
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*