Nick Raposo
C Arkansas Travelers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAATOR | 280 | .206/.280/.340 | 8 | 0 | 34 | — | .172/.226/.272 |
| 2025 | 27 | AASEA | 338 | .250/.341/.339 | 3 | 4 | 61 | — | .215/.287/.294 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/AASEA | 334 | .253/.366/.402 | 8 | 4 | 65 | — | .203/.287/.314 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBSEA | 3 | .211/.285/.311 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBSEA | 48 | .210/.283/.308 | 1 | 0 | 70 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 137 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 370 | 362 | 732 | 95 | 337 | 20 | 12 | 332 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 229 | 204 | 55 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 270 | 346 | 461 | 807 | 191 | 336 | 24 | 10 | 356 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 108 | 95 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 324 | 368 | 692 | 137 | 250 | 15 | 11 | 315 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 54 | 50 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 315 | 420 | 735 | 160 | 300 | 17 | 7 | 326 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 280 | 253 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 280 | 340 | 619 | 134 | 237 | 21 | 9 | 280 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 338 | 292 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 341 | 339 | 680 | 89 | 306 | 19 | 11 | 310 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 121 | 102 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 353 | 441 | 794 | 196 | 278 | 22 | 14 | 349 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 213 | 179 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 52 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 373 | 380 | 753 | 123 | 344 | 24 | 14 | 343 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 137 | 121 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 248 | 326 | 331 | 657 | 83 | 333 | 25 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 229 | 211 | 48 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 285 | 374 | 659 | 147 | 297 | 28 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 108 | 99 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 269 | 303 | 572 | 101 | 224 | 18 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 54 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 259 | 353 | 612 | 137 | 270 | 20 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 280 | 261 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 226 | 272 | 498 | 100 | 209 | 25 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 338 | 303 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 72 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 287 | 294 | 581 | 79 | 262 | 21 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 121 | 108 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 204 | 277 | 352 | 629 | 148 | 232 | 26 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 213 | 188 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 202 | 292 | 293 | 585 | 90 | 286 | 30 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 137 | 121 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 248 | 326 | 331 | 657 | 83 | 333 | 25 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 137 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 370 | 362 | 732 | 95 | 337 | 20 | 12 | 332 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 229 | 211 | 48 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 285 | 374 | 659 | 147 | 303 | 28 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 229 | 204 | 55 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 270 | 346 | 461 | 807 | 191 | 336 | 24 | 10 | 356 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 162 | 150 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 265 | 320 | 585 | 113 | 241 | 19 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 162 | 145 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 321 | 386 | 707 | 145 | 267 | 15 | 10 | 319 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 280 | 261 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 226 | 272 | 498 | 100 | 212 | 25 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 280 | 253 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 280 | 340 | 619 | 134 | 237 | 21 | 9 | 280 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 338 | 303 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 72 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 287 | 294 | 581 | 79 | 268 | 21 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 338 | 292 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 341 | 339 | 680 | 89 | 306 | 19 | 11 | 310 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 334 | 296 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 96 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 203 | 287 | 314 | 601 | 111 | 274 | 29 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 334 | 281 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 46 | 79 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 253 | 366 | 402 | 768 | 149 | 320 | 24 | 14 | 346 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 137 | 122 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 246 | 326 | 328 | 654 | 82 | 333 | 25 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 229 | 210 | 48 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 285 | 376 | 661 | 148 | 297 | 28 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 162 | 149 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 265 | 322 | 588 | 114 | 239 | 19 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 280 | 260 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 226 | 273 | 499 | 100 | 209 | 25 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 338 | 304 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 72 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 287 | 293 | 580 | 79 | 262 | 21 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 334 | 296 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 96 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 203 | 287 | 314 | 601 | 111 | 266 | 29 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 280 | 260 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 226 | 273 | 499 | 100 | 209 | 25 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 338 | 304 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 72 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 287 | 293 | 580 | 79 | 262 | 21 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 334 | 296 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 96 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 203 | 287 | 314 | 601 | 111 | 266 | 29 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | SEA | 2% | 380 | 341 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 95 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 213 | 286 | 315 | 601 | 101 | 275 | 25 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | SEA | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 285 | 311 | 595 | 99 | 273 | 33 | 0 | 271 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | SEA | 23% | 212 | 191 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 53 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 285 | 312 | 596 | 100 | 274 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -8 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | SEA | 23% | 48 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 283 | 308 | 590 | 98 | 272 | 25 | 8 | 269 | 70 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 318 | 589 | 114 | 258 | 25 | 8 | 269 | 64 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 122 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 54 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 320 | 591 | 116 | 257 | 25 | 8 | 269 | 64 | -23 | +0 | -6 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1847 | 1673 | 350 | 69 | 9 | 29 | 144 | 461 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 209 | 278 | 313 | 591 | 104 | 269 | 25 | 8 | 262 | 64 | -13 | -0 | -2 | +7 | +8 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 123 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 162 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 209 | 279 | 311 | 590 | 102 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 262 | 64 | -23 | -0 | -4 | +12 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 213 PAwOBA .337 → .263 (−74)K% 24.4% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.41% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 9.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×0.968 | 21.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.953 | ×0.968 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.953 | ×0.968 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 1.83% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .337 → .263; ISO .123 → .097; BABIP .344 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 121 PAwOBA .343 → .269 (−74)K% 22.3% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.31% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 17.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.63% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .343 → .269; ISO .196 → .145; BABIP .278 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 338 PAwOBA .305 → .259 (−46)K% 18.6% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.64% | ÷1.061 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.95% | ÷0.950 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.02% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×0.978 | 20.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.68% | ÷0.914 | ×0.840 | ×0.952 | ×0.978 | 4.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷1.018 | ×0.940 | ×0.952 | ×0.978 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.31% | ÷0.800 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.28% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 100, 2B 83, 3B 104, K 112, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .305 → .259; ISO .089 → .082; BABIP .306 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 280 PAwOBA .273 → .218 (−55)K% 21.1% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.07% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.93% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.53% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 15.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.97% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .273 → .218; ISO .134 → .100; BABIP .237 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 108 PAwOBA .307 → .255 (−52)K% 14.8% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.81% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.99% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 17.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.06% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.80% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.87% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .307 → .255; ISO .137 → .109; BABIP .250 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 54 PAwOBA .317 → .264 (−52)K% 16.7% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 17.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 5.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 2.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .317 → .264; ISO .160 → .132; BABIP .300 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 229 PAwOBA .348 → .285 (−64)K% 24.0% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.02% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.04% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.13% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 18.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.08% | ÷0.935 | ×0.840 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 10.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.70% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.56% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .348 → .285; ISO .191 → .154; BABIP .336 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 137 PAwOBA .327 → .294 (−32)K% 19.7% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.71% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.41% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 8.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.97% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 27.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.107 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 3.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.25% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 2.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.91% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .327 → .294; ISO .095 → .086; BABIP .337 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).