Luke Hayden

P Dayton Dragons

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ACIN	4	0	5	3.60	1.90	28.6%	9.5%	—	K 28.6% · BB 9.5% · FIP 1.89
2025	22	A+CIN	24	24	101	4.09	4.70	17.6%	16.0%	—	K 13.5% · BB 18.4% · FIP 5.38
2026	23	MIX4 levels	20	16	76	6.01	4.61	25.8%	14.5%	—	K 20.3% · BB 16.3% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	24	MLBCIN	12	12	67	6.46	6.46	15.5%	20.0%	-1.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCIN	7	7	40	6.10	6.01	16.9%	17.5%	-0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCIN	10	10	61	5.89	5.84	17.6%	16.7%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control25Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsAndrew Thurman (age 24) · Joel Hanrahan (age 25) · Kyle Larsen (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156148vR 140

ERA6.46

FIP6.46

K%15.5%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-4.5%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2525

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	4	0	5	21	6	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	0.0%	3.60	1.89	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	4	0	5	21	6	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	0.0%	3.60	1.89	—
2024	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	4	0	5	21	6	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	0.0%	3.60	1.90	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	24	101	449	79	72	8	100%	4.2	13.5%	18.4%	-4.9%	2.0%	4.09	5.38	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	24	101	449	79	72	8	100%	4.2	13.5%	18.4%	-4.9%	2.0%	4.09	5.38	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	24	24	101	449	79	72	8	100%	4.2	17.6%	16.0%	1.6%	1.8%	4.09	4.70	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	16	76	345	89	50	11	80%	3.8	20.3%	16.3%	4.1%	4.1%	6.01	5.67	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	16	76	345	89	50	11	80%	3.8	20.3%	16.3%	4.1%	4.1%	6.01	5.67	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	16	76	345	89	50	11	80%	3.8	25.8%	14.5%	11.3%	3.2%	6.01	4.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CIN	12	12	67	283	44	57	9	100%	5.6	15.5%	20.0%	-4.5%	3.2%	6.46	6.46	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	92	390	66	68	12	100%	5.8	16.9%	17.5%	-0.6%	3.2%	6.10	6.01	-1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	92	390	69	65	12	100%	6.2	17.6%	16.7%	0.9%	3.2%	5.89	5.84	-1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	91	384	68	63	12	100%	6.1	17.8%	16.3%	1.5%	3.2%	5.81	5.80	-0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	88	372	66	61	12	100%	5.9	17.8%	16.3%	1.5%	3.3%	5.82	5.85	-0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	84	356	62	59	12	100%	6.0	17.5%	16.5%	1.1%	3.4%	5.92	5.98	-1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	79	334	64	53	12	100%	6.1	19.2%	16.0%	3.2%	3.6%	5.90	5.89	-0.9
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	40	169	29	30	5	100%	5.7	16.9%	17.5%	-0.6%	3.2%	6.10	6.01	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	61	258	45	43	8	100%	6.1	17.6%	16.7%	0.9%	3.2%	5.89	5.84	-0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	70	296	53	48	9	100%	5.8	17.8%	16.3%	1.5%	3.2%	5.81	5.80	-0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	74	312	56	51	10	100%	6.2	17.8%	16.3%	1.5%	3.3%	5.82	5.85	-0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	74	312	55	51	11	100%	6.2	17.5%	16.5%	1.1%	3.4%	5.92	5.98	-0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	71	300	58	48	11	100%	5.9	19.2%	16.0%	3.2%	3.6%	5.90	5.89	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	390	1648	295	271	55	100%	6.0	17.9%	16.5%	1.4%	3.3%	5.89	5.51	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	151	139	28	100%	6.0	17.9%	16.5%	1.4%	3.3%	5.89	5.51	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		48	40	183	815	137	141	23	83%	3.8	16.8%	17.3%	-0.5%	2.8%	4.88	5.41	-5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	44	200	892	150	154	25	83%	3.8	16.8%	17.3%	-0.5%	2.8%	4.88	5.41	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Hayden (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.46	15.5%	20.0%	3.2%	—	5.88	17.4%	0.6%	276	-0.58	—	—	—
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	86
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	80
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	80
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	79
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	78
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	77
Johnny Hellweg R 2013 · 5.63 FIP	24	SP	5.63	5.6%	16.0%	1.8%	.298	5.82	9.6%	-8.1%	82	+0.19	2.98	140	77
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	76
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	76
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76
Mitchell Boggs R 2008 · 5.80 FIP	24	SP-	5.80	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	.298	3.63	18.0%	8.6%	186	-2.17	3.21	330	75
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	75
M.D. Johnson R 2021 · 5.30 FIP	24	SP	5.30	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.67	3.52	395	75
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.20	19.2%	6.0%	114	-0.66	3.85	263	74
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	74
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	73
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	73
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	73
Braden Webb R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP	5.44	15.0%	19.7%	2.0%	.239	5.15	25.2%	10.4%	49	-0.29	4.48	308	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	85	17.5%	16.9%	1.28	5.97
Bob Wiesler ('51-'58, -3 WAR*)	1.2	80	16.6%*	16.0%*	0.74*	6.20*
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
George Boehler ('12-'26, -5 WAR*)	1.0	51	20.1%*	14.7%*	0.82*	6.12*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77