Shane Panzini

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

Scout OFP42ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+KC	16	7	51	5.29	4.79	21.9%	11.9%	—	K 16.9% · BB 13.7% · FIP 6.02
2025	23	MIX3 levels	26	17	109	3.39	3.97	24.2%	10.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.59
2026	24	MIX2 levels	20	4	33	9.99	7.66	20.2%	17.9%	—	K 14.8% · BB 13.3% · FIP 8.48
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	10	10	60	5.74	5.74	17.0%	11.2%	-0.6
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBKC	8	8	47	5.57	5.55	18.0%	10.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBKC	11	11	64	5.48	5.49	18.3%	10.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command55FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 26) · Jake Bray (age 25) · Colby Morris (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.74

FIP5.74

K%17.0%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5045

CTRL5045

CMD5555

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	63	283	66	38	9	100%	3.7	17.3%	15.8%	1.4%	3.6%	5.00	5.64	—
2022	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	63	283	66	38	9	100%	3.7	23.3%	13.4%	9.9%	3.2%	5.00	4.67	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	97	434	105	56	11	100%	4.4	18.3%	15.2%	3.1%	2.4%	5.29	4.80	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	97	434	105	56	11	100%	4.4	24.2%	12.9%	11.3%	2.5%	5.29	4.14	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	7	51	219	48	26	8	44%	3.2	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	4.8%	5.29	6.02	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	7	51	219	48	26	8	44%	3.2	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	4.8%	5.29	6.02	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	7	51	219	48	26	8	44%	3.2	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.7%	5.29	4.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	109	471	114	47	14	65%	4.2	19.4%	10.5%	9.0%	3.3%	3.39	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	109	471	114	47	14	65%	4.2	19.4%	10.5%	9.0%	3.3%	3.39	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	17	109	471	114	47	14	65%	4.2	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	3.0%	3.39	3.97	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	33	168	34	30	10	20%	1.7	14.8%	13.3%	1.5%	9.0%	9.99	8.48	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	33	168	34	30	10	20%	1.7	14.8%	13.3%	1.5%	9.0%	9.99	8.48	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	4	33	168	34	30	10	20%	1.7	20.2%	17.9%	2.4%	6.0%	9.99	7.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	10	10	60	253	43	28	11	100%	6.0	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	4.2%	5.74	5.74	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	98	414	74	45	17	100%	6.1	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	4.0%	5.57	5.55	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	97	408	75	43	16	100%	6.0	18.3%	10.6%	7.6%	4.0%	5.48	5.49	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	94	396	73	42	16	100%	5.9	18.3%	10.6%	7.7%	4.1%	5.47	5.51	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	90	378	69	41	16	100%	6.0	18.2%	10.8%	7.4%	4.2%	5.54	5.61	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	84	355	63	39	16	100%	6.0	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	4.4%	5.69	5.79	-0.8
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	47	198	36	21	8	100%	5.9	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	4.0%	5.57	5.55	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	64	270	49	29	11	100%	5.8	18.3%	10.6%	7.6%	4.0%	5.48	5.49	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	72	304	56	32	12	100%	6.0	18.3%	10.6%	7.7%	4.1%	5.47	5.51	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	74	312	57	34	13	100%	6.2	18.2%	10.8%	7.4%	4.2%	5.54	5.61	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	55	34	14	100%	6.1	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	4.4%	5.69	5.79	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	330	1395	253	151	58	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.8%	7.3%	4.2%	5.55	5.22	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	91	35	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.8%	7.3%	4.2%	5.55	5.22	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		101	67	353	1575	282	212	62	66%	3.5	17.9%	13.5%	4.4%	3.9%	5.09	5.45	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	38	200	892	159	120	35	66%	3.5	17.9%	13.5%	4.4%	3.9%	5.09	5.45	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Panzini (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.74	17.0%	11.2%	4.2%	—	5.52	18.2%	7.5%	288	-0.22	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	87
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	85
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	82
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	81
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	80
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	80
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	80
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	79
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	79
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	78
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	78
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	77
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	77
Cole Percival R 2024 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	17.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.296	3.58	20.5%	9.5%	36	-1.02	3.58	327	77
Ryan Long R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP-	5.29	15.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.239	4.87	18.7%	8.7%	159	-0.42	4.20	433	76
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	87	18.0%	10.8%	1.60	5.57
Jerry Casale ('58-'62, -1 WAR*)	1.9	93	18.7%*	11.2%*	1.44*	5.30*
Johnnie Wittig ('38-'49, -2 WAR*)	1.5	102	19.4%*	11.7%*	1.68*	5.81*
Art Ceccarelli ('55-'60, -2 WAR*)	1.5	102	19.2%*	9.8%*	1.71*	5.41*
Brandon Backe ('09)	2.6	88	15.4%	10.2%	1.49	5.23
Matt Kinney ('05)	1.9	97	16.8%	9.9%	1.39	5.29
Hector Noesí ('19)	2.1	70	16.4%	8.7%	1.53	5.51