Randal Diaz

SS Frederick Keys

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	AWSH	428	.226/.322/.280	1	29	34	—	.182/.255/.221
2025	22	INTLSenadores de …	85	.139/.215/.153	0	0	0	—
2026	23	A+BAL	372	.260/.360/.436	12	26	64	—	.197/.271/.331
2027PROJ0% MLB	24	MLBBAL	2	.203/.271/.304	0	0	61	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBBAL	101	.207/.275/.314	2	3	64	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBBAL	169	.209/.278/.320	3	5	67	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

ISO62

wRC+61

wOBA59

Speed59

K%54

Chase%49

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsHunter Jones (age 24) · Connor Kokx (age 24) · Tony Bullard (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .271 / .304

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%7

BABIP274

ISO99

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	71	63	14	4	0	0	4	15	3	1	0	222	300	286	586	63	286	21	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	428	371	84	11	3	1	46	66	6	29	7	226	322	280	602	54	269	15	11	280	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	85	72	10	1	0	0	6	23	1	0	1	139	215	153	368	14	196	27	7	169	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Frederick Keys	—	372	319	83	18	1	12	40	86	10	26	10	260	360	436	796	176	317	23	11	355	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	428	385	70	8	2	1	32	93	6	29	7	182	255	221	476	39	230	22	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	372	335	66	13	1	10	24	113	10	26	10	197	271	331	602	134	253	30	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	INTL MLE	Senadores de San Juan	—	71	63	14	4	0	0	4	15	3	1	0	222	300	286	586	63	286	21	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	INTL RAW	Senadores de San Juan	—	71	63	14	4	0	0	4	15	3	1	0	222	300	286	586	63	286	21	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	513	457	84	10	3	1	38	111	7	29	8	184	257	225	482	42	236	22	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	513	443	94	12	3	1	52	89	7	29	8	212	305	260	564	47	259	17	10	262	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	372	335	66	13	1	10	24	113	10	26	10	197	271	331	602	134	260	30	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	—	372	319	83	18	1	12	40	86	10	26	10	260	360	436	796	176	317	23	11	355	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	513	463	84	10	3	1	38	111	7	29	8	181	257	222	479	41	230	22	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	372	335	66	13	1	10	24	113	10	26	10	197	271	331	602	134	253	30	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	513	463	84	10	3	1	38	111	7	29	8	181	257	222	479	41	230	22	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	372	335	66	13	1	10	24	113	10	26	10	197	271	331	602	134	253	30	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	380	345	69	12	2	6	26	109	6	13	4	200	269	297	566	97	270	29	7	258	61	-18	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	203	271	304	575	101	274	50	0	262	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	30%	333	302	61	11	1	6	23	94	5	10	3	203	272	307	580	104	272	28	7	263	64	-14	+1	+0	+4	+7	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	44%	382	346	72	13	2	7	27	107	6	11	4	206	275	313	588	108	272	28	7	267	67	-15	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	49%	403	365	76	13	2	8	29	112	6	11	4	207	276	315	592	109	273	28	7	269	68	-15	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	414	375	78	14	2	8	30	115	6	10	3	207	277	316	592	109	273	28	7	269	68	-16	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	51%	413	374	78	14	2	8	30	115	6	9	3	207	276	314	591	108	273	28	7	268	68	-16	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	51%	410	371	75	14	1	7	30	115	6	8	3	204	273	307	580	103	271	28	7	264	65	-17	+0	-2	+4	+9	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	30%	101	91	18	3	0	2	7	29	2	3	1	207	275	314	590	107	276	29	7	267	64	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	44%	169	152	32	6	1	3	12	47	3	5	2	209	278	320	598	111	276	28	7	271	67	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	49%	198	179	38	7	1	4	14	55	3	5	2	210	280	323	602	113	277	28	7	273	68	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	213	192	40	7	1	4	16	59	3	5	2	210	280	323	603	113	277	28	8	273	68	-8	+0	-0	+2	+5	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	51%	213	192	40	7	1	4	16	59	3	4	2	210	279	322	601	112	277	28	8	272	68	-8	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	51%	211	191	40	7	1	4	15	59	3	4	2	207	276	314	590	107	275	28	7	268	65	-9	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1105	997	208	37	5	21	80	308	17	26	11	209	279	319	598	110	277	28	7	271	58	-44	+1	-2	+12	+24	-0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	122	22	3	12	47	181	10	15	6	208	278	317	596	109	277	28	7	271	58	-26	+0	-1	+7	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3612	3260	659	116	15	60	256	983	60	125	41	202	273	302	575	100	267	27	7	254	58	-108	+5	-4	+28	+58	-2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	119	21	3	11	46	177	11	22	7	203	273	305	578	102	268	27	7	254	58	-26	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
#4Chuck Cottier'59-'69 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,770 PA	2.7	1,770	19	28	219*	280*	330*	+7	+14	0.5	0.9
/162	664	7	11	+2.7	+5.3	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.7	1,106	21	27	207	273	314	+12	+9	0.0	0.1
/162	664	12	16	+7.1	+5.4	0.0	pk7: 0
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Billy Hunter'53-'58 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,052 PA	3.1	2,052	16	23	213*	254*	312*	+20	+13	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	5	7	+6.4	+4.3	-0.9	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Randal Diaz (OGILVIE)	24	40	20	60	40	198/266/295	97	270	5	10	29%	7%	61	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hunter Jones 2016 · A	24	40→50	39→40	55	41	194/256/275	81	272	7	21	30%	6%	51	-2.2	218/272/309	91	285	6	17	25%	6%	65	-1.2	226/281/321	94	290	6	16	23%	5%	69	-0.8
✕Connor Kokx 2024 · AA	24	44	39→40	54→60	48	209/298/296	87	286	6	23	27%	9%	73	-0.6	216/293/300	84	304	6	22	29%	7%	72	-0.7	199/279/224	26	297	0	37	30%	5%	46	-0.5
✕Tony Bullard 2024 · A	24	40	44→40	52→50	43	202/263/315	113	267	12	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	214/271/319	105	285	9	12	27%	6%	68	-1.0	210/267/311	102	278	9	13	27%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Ryan Leonards 2015 · A	24	46	39→40	56→50	43	220/275/306	87	278	6	12	23%	6%	65	-1.2	217/278/294	77	278	5	9	22%	6%	63	-1.3	212/277/276	64	270	3	8	21%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Luke Williams 2021 · AA	24	42→44	42→45	52→65	44	208/270/316	107	274	9	20	27%	7%	65	-1.2	229/287/323	94	314	7	28	27%	7%	74	-0.6	229/291/325	96	311	8	37	27%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Devin Lohman 2013 · A	24	44→46	41→40	51→50	44	214/278/311	97	275	9	16	25%	7%	68	-1.0	211/265/296	85	266	7	13	23%	5%	59	-1.6	202/253/276	74	253	6	11	22%	5%	48	-1.5
✕Maverick Handley 2022 · A	24	39	41→40	53→50	40	186/267/286	100	308	9	16	39%	8%	59	-1.6	201/292/301	100	281	10	12	30%	9%	72	-0.7	195/293/283	88	266	8	10	27%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Eduardo Torrealba 2023 · A	24	44	39→30	54→50	44	211/263/291	80	254	6	17	20%	5%	57	-1.8	209/267/282	73	262	5	14	21%	6%	57	-1.8	203/264/251	48	253	3	15	20%	6%	48	-1.3
✕Ben Gobbel 2024 · A	24	44→41	41→45	52→50	42	208/277/307	100	306	8	14	33%	7%	67	-1.1	216/267/338	122	283	14	12	28%	5%	70	-0.8	216/266/339	123	276	15	11	27%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Shawn Goosenberg 2024 · A	24	40→38	42→45	56→55	41	196/265/296	100	285	10	23	33%	7%	60	-1.6	197/250/309	112	295	11	18	35%	6%	57	-1.8	184/234/312	127	273	14	18	37%	5%	49	-1.7
✕Mike Martin 2017 · A	24	44	36→30	51→55	44	209/274/269	60	285	4	14	27%	7%	57	-1.8	226/276/298	72	285	4	18	21%	5%	63	-1.3	236/281/294	58	290	2	27	18%	5%	61	-0.8
✕Justin Dean 2021 · A	24	47	42→45	58→65	44	221/291/328	107	313	8	23	30%	8%	76	-0.4	202/279/300	98	317	8	27	36%	8%	67	-1.1	212/289/296	84	320	7	47	33%	9%	66	-0.8
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Nate Eaton 2022 · A	25	40→49	40→45	55→60	43	194/260/285	90	269	7	19	29%	7%	55	-1.9	215/270/336	121	283	13	28	28%	6%	70	-0.8	210/267/331	121	274	12	27	27%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Stephen Wrenn 2019 · AA	24	42→43	40→45	56→60	39	204/256/295	91	288	7	24	31%	6%	55	-1.9	204/265/312	108	298	9	24	33%	6%	63	-1.4	193/259/307	113	288	9	27	34%	6%	58	-1.2
✕Najee Gaskins 2022 · A	24	44	39→30	51→50	36	209/259/295	86	315	7	12	34%	5%	57	-1.8	213/283/290	77	359	4	9	39%	6%	65	-1.2	209/294/267	58	376	2	10	40%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Errol Robinson 2019 · AA	24	46→49	40	51→55	41	221/268/310	89	296	8	17	27%	6%	63	-1.4	211/268/290	79	295	7	13	29%	7%	59	-1.7	197/269/244	47	303	3	26	33%	8%	46	-0.9
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	177/235/240	63	250	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	215/285/296	81	280	8	14	24%	8%	67	-1.1	210/285/284	74	270	8	16	24%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Johnni Turbo 2013 · AA	24	48→51	39→40	56→55	38	232/266/318	86	304	6	18	26%	4%	63	-1.3	238/271/322	84	288	5	17	19%	3%	67	-1.1	236/272/299	63	288	2	18	18%	4%	59	-0.6
✕Kenny Wilson 2014 · AA	24	46→51	39→40	57→60	43	218/285/304	86	302	5	28	28%	6%	69	-0.9	227/282/313	86	310	5	27	27%	6%	69	-0.9	198/266/289	91	302	7	22	34%	7%	56	-0.7

Randal Diaz

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps