Ryan Cepero — OGILVIE

Ryan CeperoSS Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj PA

wRC+†40

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .253 / .259

PA68

HR1

K%35

BB%7

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Gold	—	41	36	1	0	0	0	2	29	2	1	0	28	125	28	153		143	71	5	109	-58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Gold	—	41	34	3	0	0	1	4	20	2	1	0	88	225	176	401	88	154	49	10	199	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	ACL Royals	—	57	55	3	1	0	0	2	37	0	0	0	55	88	73	160	18	167	65	4	94	-70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	ACL Royals	—	57	54	7	2	0	1	3	25	0	0	0	130	175	222	398	93	214	44	5	182	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	88	79	7	2	0	0	5	39	2	2	0	89	163	114	277	25	167	44	6	142	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	88	76	12	4	0	0	8	27	2	2	0	158	256	211	466	53	235	31	9	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	69	59	9	1	0	0	7	32	1	5	1	153	254	169	423	17	333	46	10	188	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	69	55	11	1	0	0	11	22	1	5	1	200	343	218	561	18	333	32	16	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	KC	—	68	62	12	2	0	1	5	24	1	1	0	194	265	274	539	81	288	35	7	238	40	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	KC	30%	142	129	26	5	1	2	10	47	2	2	1	202	270	302	572	101	290	33	7	249	49	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	KC	44%	248	225	45	8	1	4	18	81	3	4	1	200	268	298	566	98	290	33	7	257	55	-13	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	KC	30%	43	40	6	1	0	0	3	14	0	1	0	150	209	175	384	25	287	33	7	239	41	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	KC	44%	109	99	20	3	1	2	8	35	1	2	0	202	269	313	582	111	287	32	7	246	47	-7	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	152	139	26	4	1	2	11	49	1	3	0	187	252	273	525	86	270	32	7	244	45	-9	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	111	17	4	9	47	210	4	13	0	187	251	274	525	88	269	32	7	244	45	-40	+3	+0	+7	+18	-1.3
Career	—			—	713	645	103	19	2	7	49	289	11	15	3	160	231	228	459	68	272	41	7	211	20	-65	+2	+0	+8	+20	-3.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	93	17	2	6	45	263	10	14	3	158	231	224	455	66	269	40	7	211	20	-59	+2	+0	+7	+18	-3.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Gold	—	41	34	3	0	1	4	20	2	1	0	88	225	176	401	88	154	49	10	199	10	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	19	ROK	ACL Royals	—	57	54	7	2	1	3	25	0	0	0	130	175	222	398	93	214	44	5	182	-3	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2023	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	88	76	12	4	0	8	27	2	2	0	158	256	211	466	53	235	31	9	221	27	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2024	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	38	33	4	0	0	3	15	1	2	0	121	216	121	337		222	39	8	170	-12	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	21	ROK	ACL Royals	—	31	22	7	1	0	8	7	0	3	1	318	500	364	864	45	467	23	26	397	162	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	220	3	4	196	261	284	+2	+6	-0.4	-0.2
	/162	664	8	11	196	261	284	+7.1	+18.1	-1.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Cepero (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	186/253/259	73	288	1	1	35%	7%	40	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Hess 2018 · A	23	39→34	37→45	49→30	38	187/245/270	83	282	3	5	33%	6%	39	-2.5	194/251/308	114	284	11	4	34%	4%	52	-1.6	181/239/309	128	257	14	1	34%	4%	46	-1.6
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	42	-2.3	199/264/283	84	349	5	9	41%	7%	51	-1.7	149/237/238	89	307	4	14	47%	8%	28	-0.6
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39	40→45	50→45	37	189/243/279	90	293	7	9	36%	6%	40	-2.4	181/265/289	108	254	11	5	31%	9%	54	-1.4	161/255/263	101	223	11	3	31%	10%	40	-1.3
✕Connor Justus 2018 · A	23	41→37	38→40	46→45	45	193/275/270	77	281	5	9	31%	8%	53	-1.5	176/256/248	72	256	5	8	31%	8%	40	-2.4	158/238/217	59	235	4	6	32%	7%	21	-2.5
✕Chris Okey 2018 · A	23	34	38→45	48→40	36	169/228/242	73	279	6	5	40%	6%	24	-3.5	181/236/284	103	274	12	4	36%	6%	39	-2.5	203/255/307	104	286	10	2	31%	5%	49	-0.5
✕Gunnar Heidt 2016 · A	23	34→39	35→45	49→50	36	169/210/231	62	247	3	11	32%	5%	13	-4.3	191/247/294	103	286	9	12	34%	6%	46	-2.0	189/248/295	106	281	10	12	35%	7%	44	-1.6
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→33	41→40	49→55	33	185/229/278	92	285	8	9	37%	4%	33	-2.9	172/223/263	91	273	9	12	38%	5%	28	-3.2	143/198/223	80	227	9	13	40%	5%	4	-2.5
✕Julio Carrion 2022 · A	23	39	38→40	50→45	42	187/268/265	78	282	6	5	33%	7%	49	-1.8	180/252/267	87	346	8	5	46%	7%	42	-2.3	150/225/232	81	315	9	4	51%	7%	19	-1.5
✕Matt Winn 2016 · A	23	40→34	40→50	50→30	37	196/246/288	92	293	7	7	34%	6%	43	-2.2	190/247/324	134	306	16	2	41%	7%	54	-1.4	173/233/309	136	290	16	0	44%	7%	41	-1.5
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	38→36	36→45	47→40	40	182/248/249	67	278	3	8	34%	7%	35	-2.8	175/232/242	67	239	6	4	28%	6%	27	-3.3	194/263/331	137	266	18	1	33%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	38	41→40	46→40	41	184/265/285	101	288	8	8	36%	8%	53	-1.5	205/278/297	92	316	7	5	34%	7%	60	-1.0	204/278/288	84	318	5	2	34%	7%	56	-0.7
✕Daniel Berg 2008 · A	23	37	39→40	45→40	39	180/245/262	82	274	6	4	35%	6%	37	-2.6	203/273/289	86	313	6	4	34%	7%	56	-1.3	201/278/285	84	310	6	2	34%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Nic Kent 2023 · A	23	35→41	35→40	48→50	35	173/219/230	57	265	3	14	35%	4%	17	-4.0	199/249/278	79	265	7	10	26%	5%	43	-2.2	193/253/275	82	267	8	10	29%	6%	41	-1.3
✕Andrés Alvarez 2021 · A	24	41→30	37→45	48→50	42	195/261/270	74	275	4	7	29%	7%	46	-2.0	201/266/321	120	293	13	15	34%	7%	62	-0.9	177/245/298	121	254	15	15	35%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Brock Carpenter 2018 · A	23	37	41→40	48→30	42	184/257/280	96	282	10	6	36%	8%	47	-1.9	201/263/302	101	330	8	6	38%	7%	55	-1.4	188/249/306	119	317	7	3	40%	7%	46	-0.7
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	38	38→30	47→50	39	185/237/262	77	264	5	13	31%	6%	33	-2.9	197/249/259	62	309	3	10	35%	6%	37	-2.6	191/245/241	50	305	2	10	36%	6%	27	-1.8
✕Joe Donovan 2022 · A	23	39	41→45	52→40	37	183/264/283	100	312	9	10	41%	7%	52	-1.6	185/249/295	110	299	10	5	39%	6%	48	-1.9	171/233/286	115	268	11	2	38%	5%	36	-1.0
✕Gift Ngoepe 2013 · A	23	40	37→45	47→50	39	192/249/264	71	295	5	14	35%	6%	39	-2.5	194/253/292	98	314	8	14	38%	7%	48	-1.9	171/250/283	112	296	11	5	43%	9%	43	-0.9
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Vicente Conde 2017 · AA	23	40→34	39→45	46→45	44	192/257/281	88	278	6	7	32%	8%	46	-2.0	176/250/262	86	262	7	6	32%	9%	40	-2.4	103/200/175	72	170	6	2	40%	10%	-4	-1.7