Case Williams

P Spokane Indians

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	20	MIX3 levels	23	23	128	4.64	4.10	24.1%	8.2%	—	K 17.2% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.31
2023	21	AACOL	23	23	102	7.08	5.86	16.5%	10.7%	—	K 13.4% · BB 11.7% · FIP 6.37
2026	24	MIX3 levels	21	1	29	7.22	4.95	19.0%	21.8%	—	K 15.9% · BB 17.2% · FIP 4.72
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	2	2	11	5.23	5.23	19.6%	14.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCOL	2	2	11	5.12	5.10	20.4%	13.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAlfredo Figaro (age 25) · Carlos Torres (age 26) · Lisalverto Bonilla (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%19.6%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%5.2%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	19	17	75	355	51	47	9	89%	4.0	10.6%	15.6%	-5.0%	2.7%	5.73	5.67	—
2021	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	19	17	75	355	51	47	9	89%	4.0	14.4%	13.2%	1.1%	2.5%	5.73	5.17	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	128	560	135	46	20	100%	5.6	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	4.4%	4.64	5.31	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	128	560	135	46	20	100%	5.6	24.1%	8.2%	15.9%	3.6%	4.64	4.10	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	23	23	102	478	79	51	22	100%	4.4	13.4%	11.7%	1.7%	5.3%	7.08	6.37	—
2023	21	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	23	23	102	478	79	51	22	100%	4.4	16.5%	10.7%	5.9%	4.6%	7.08	5.86	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	29	147	28	32	1	5%	1.4	15.9%	17.2%	-1.3%	1.4%	7.22	4.72	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	29	147	28	32	1	5%	1.4	15.9%	17.2%	-1.3%	1.4%	7.22	4.72	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	29	147	28	32	1	5%	1.4	19.0%	21.8%	-2.7%	0.7%	7.22	4.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	2	2	11	46	9	7	1	100%	5.5	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	2.9%	5.23	5.23	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	4	4	26	109	22	15	3	100%	6.5	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.12	5.10	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	2	2	11	46	9	6	1	100%	5.5	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.12	5.10	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	47	10	6	1	100%	5.6	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.12	4.72	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	180	108	18	100%	6.0	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.12	4.72	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		86	64	334	1540	221	192	62	74%	3.9	14.4%	12.5%	1.9%	4.0%	5.85	5.67	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	38	200	923	133	115	37	74%	3.9	14.4%	12.5%	1.9%	4.0%	5.85	5.67	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Case Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	19.6%	14.4%	2.9%	—	5.10	20.4%	6.6%	26	-0.13	—	—	—
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	85
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	84
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	82
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	80
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	77
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	77
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	76
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	75
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	75
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	75
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	74
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	73
Grant Kipp R 2024 · 4.75 FIP	24	SP-	4.75	18.9%	14.1%	2.7%	.263	4.55	20.9%	9.0%	201	-0.20	4.32	355	73
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	73
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	72
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	72
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	72
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	72
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	71
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	71