Alimber Santa

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 228 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEFG #438

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	19	4	40	6.47	4.31	26.5%	12.4%	—	K 19.9% · BB 14.3% · FIP 5.63
2025	22	MIX2 levels	46	0	70	2.31	2.80	27.9%	13.3%	—	K 22.9% · BB 13.5% · FIP 3.30
2026	23	MIX2 levels	58	0	61	3.98	3.97	20.9%	10.8%	0.4	K 18.4% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	62	0	65	4.60	4.84	19.7%	12.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBHOU	42	0	44	4.64	4.69	20.5%	12.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBHOU	50	0	52	4.63	4.64	20.9%	11.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo64

Whiff%10

K%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Grayson Thurman (age 24) · Luis Vizcaino (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.60

FIP4.84

K%19.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—40

CMD3035

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1015.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.267

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	9	4	21	88	22	8	2	44%	2.3	17.0%	11.4%	5.6%	3.2%	3.43	4.85	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	9	4	21	88	22	8	2	44%	2.3	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	2.3%	3.43	3.39	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	2	13	4	2	0	33%	0.7	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	13.50	2.45	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	2	13	4	2	0	33%	0.7	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	13.50	2.10	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	14	87	413	119	74	5	54%	3.4	21.3%	21.1%	0.2%	1.6%	5.98	4.85	—
2023	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	14	87	413	119	74	5	54%	3.4	28.8%	17.9%	10.9%	1.2%	5.98	3.66	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	21%	2.1	19.9%	14.3%	5.6%	4.4%	6.47	5.63	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	21%	2.1	19.9%	14.3%	5.6%	4.4%	6.47	5.63	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	21%	2.1	26.5%	12.4%	14.1%	3.2%	6.47	4.31	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	0%	1.5	22.9%	13.5%	9.4%	0.8%	2.31	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	0%	1.5	22.9%	13.5%	9.4%	0.8%	2.31	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	0%	1.5	27.9%	13.3%	14.6%	0.7%	2.31	2.80	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	61	268	56	29	6	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.0%	8.5%	2.4%	3.98	4.14	+0.3
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	61	268	56	29	6	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.0%	8.5%	2.4%	3.98	4.14	+0.3
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	61	268	56	29	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	2.2%	3.98	3.97	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	15	59	9	6	1	0%	1.5	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	1.7%	1.17	3.95	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	62	0	65	274	54	35	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.8%	6.9%	2.6%	4.60	4.84	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	276	57	33	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	2.6%	4.64	4.69	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	276	58	32	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.63	4.64	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	272	57	32	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	2.7%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	42	0	44	186	38	22	5	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	2.6%	4.64	4.69	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	52	220	46	26	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.63	4.64	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	52	0	55	232	49	27	6	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	2.7%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	0	167	699	142	82	18	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.7%	8.7%	2.6%	4.32	4.26	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	838	170	98	22	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.7%	8.7%	2.6%	4.32	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		161	23	282	1261	261	192	26	14%	1.7	20.7%	15.2%	5.4%	2.1%	4.57	4.43	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	16	200	895	185	136	19	14%	1.7	20.7%	15.2%	5.4%	2.1%	4.57	4.43	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alimber Santa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	19.7%	12.8%	2.6%	—	4.66	20.8%	9.0%	195	-0.18	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	85
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	85
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	84
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	83
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	83
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	82
Chad Smith R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	24	SU	4.32	19.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.274	3.93	25.2%	12.6%	86	-0.39	3.31	258	82
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	82
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	82
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	82
Luke Stofel R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	17.6%	12.4%	2.0%	.328	4.42	14.0%	1.8%	147	+0.16	4.26	188	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	69	20.3%	12.0%	0.99	4.44
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Rich Loiselle ('01)	1.1	56	17.2%	12.0%	0.88	4.38
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Horacio Pina ('68-'78, 2 WAR*)	2.2	62	20.7%*	11.2%*	0.84*	4.01*