Josh Ekness
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+0.7
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA3.94
FIP3.94
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.2%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.6%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 7 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 11 | 11 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.82 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 48 | 0 | 66 | 268 | 83 | 25 | 3 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 0.5% | 1.91 | 2.84 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 46 | 0 | 54 | 247 | 68 | 25 | 2 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 4.17 | 2.35 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 4 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 55 | 23 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 63 | 267 | 68 | 27 | 5 | 25.4% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 3.64 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 56 | 22 | 5 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.93 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 57 | 22 | 6 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.93 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 56 | 22 | 6 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 3.94 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 55 | 22 | 6 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 54 | 21 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.04 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 47 | 20 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 22.2% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 0 | 136 | 592 | 143 | 68 | 1 | 24.2% | 11.5% | 0.2% | 2.97 | 2.65 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 0 | 200 | 868 | 210 | 100 | 1 | 24.2% | 11.5% | 0.2% | 2.97 | 2.65 | +6.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Ekness (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.94 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 2.2% | — | 3.91 | 23.7% | 14.5% | 169 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 94 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.16 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.57 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.41 | 3.16 | 153 | 93 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 92 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 91 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 91 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 91 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.79 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.94 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 55 | +0.15 | 3.78 | 178 | 89 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .315 | 3.77 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 32 | +0.09 | 3.68 | 147 | 89 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 89 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .353 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.72 | 4.04 | 106 | 89 |
| Josh Martin R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 89 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.65 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 4.58 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +0.93 | 2.57 | 304 | 88 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.90 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.05 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.15 | 3.60 | 171 | 87 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 2.66 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 0.9% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 145 | 87 |
| Luke Murphy R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.55 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .317 | 5.29 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 45 | +1.74 | 3.14 | 192 | 87 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.80 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 2.90 | 24.7% | 9.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 2.90 | 144 | 87 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2027 · 2.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.99 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 1.2% | .280 | 3.76 | 23.9% | 11.6% | 61 | +0.77 | 2.99 | 117 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $8M | $16M | +$8M | ||