Josh Ekness

P Miami Marlins

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	48	66	1.91	2.31	31.0%	9.3%	—	K 23.2% · BB 11.1% · FIP 2.84
2025	23	MIX2 levels	46	54	4.17	2.45	27.5%	10.1%	—	K 23.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 2.35
2026	24	MIX2 levels	45	52	3.48	3.29	25.7%	10.8%	0.8	K 23.6% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.51
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIA	27	28	3.90	3.96	25.4%	10.4%	0.2
2028PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBMIA	28	29	3.96	3.98	25.4%	10.2%	0.2
2029PROJ84% MLB	27	MLBMIA	27	28	4.02	4.04	25.3%	10.2%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs59

K%21

Form5.27 ERA (proj 3.90) · K 20.0% (proj 25.4%) · BB 18.5% (proj 10.4%) ▼▼ last 60d · 14 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 2.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsWill Vest (age 24) · Zach Franklin (age 25) · Jhan Mariñez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.90

FIP3.96

K%25.4%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%15.1%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.0

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	46	11	11	0	0%	1.3	23.9%	23.9%	0.0%	0.0%	4.82	4.11	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	46	11	11	0	0%	1.3	23.9%	23.9%	0.0%	0.0%	4.82	4.28	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	66	268	83	25	3	0%	1.4	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	0.5%	1.91	2.84	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	66	268	83	25	3	0%	1.4	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	0.5%	1.91	2.84	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	66	268	83	25	3	0%	1.4	31.0%	9.3%	21.6%	1.1%	1.91	2.31	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	247	68	25	2	0%	1.2	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	0.0%	4.17	2.35	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	247	68	25	2	0%	1.2	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	0.0%	4.17	2.35	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	54	247	68	25	2	0%	1.2	27.5%	10.1%	17.4%	0.8%	4.17	2.45	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	52	222	57	24	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	1.9%	3.48	3.51	+0.6
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	52	222	57	24	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	1.9%	3.48	3.51	+0.6
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	52	222	57	24	4	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.8%	14.9%	1.8%	3.48	3.29	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			30	0	31	134	24	18	2	0%	1.0	17.9%	13.4%	4.5%	1.5%	3.23	4.14	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	27	0	28	118	30	12	3	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.4%	15.1%	2.4%	3.90	3.96	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	35	0	36	154	39	16	4	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.2%	15.2%	2.5%	3.96	3.98	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	32	0	33	140	35	14	4	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.2%	15.1%	2.6%	4.02	4.04	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	31	13	3	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.2%	15.2%	2.5%	3.96	3.98	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	27	0	28	118	30	12	3	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.2%	15.1%	2.6%	4.02	4.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	0	88	375	85	43	8	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.1%	3.72	3.80	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	855	194	98	18	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.1%	3.72	3.80	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		146	0	181	783	183	88	6	0%	1.2	23.4%	11.2%	12.1%	0.7%	3.18	2.95	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	0	200	865	202	97	6	0%	1.2	23.4%	11.2%	12.1%	0.7%	3.18	2.95	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 21 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.53 (+0.48)K% 37.5% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.860	32.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×0.900	6.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 53 IPFIP 1.78 → 2.35 (+0.57)K% 28.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.810	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.66%	—	×1.100	9.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.103	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 1.78 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 49 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.21 (+0.83)K% 27.6% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.64%	—	×0.770	21.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.55%	—	×1.150	12.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.50%	÷0.935	×1.250	0.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 13 IPFIP 0.31 → 1.37 (+1.06)K% 42.0% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.00%	—	×0.740	31.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.00%	—	×1.180	7.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.888	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 0.31 → 1.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 9 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.27 (+1.12)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.180	29.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.924	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Ekness (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	4.01	25.4%	15.1%	70	+0.05	—	—	—
Will Vest R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	.282	3.65	20.9%	11.9%	124	-0.06	2.56	448	82
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	82
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	81
Jake Barrett R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	22.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.250	3.86	24.1%	12.5%	118	+0.13	1.48	230	81
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	81
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	81
Isaiah Campbell R 2023 · 3.35 FIP	25	SU	3.35	25.5%	9.2%	2.3%	.273	4.01	19.1%	12.4%	128	+0.66	3.31	246	80
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.56	20.2%	4.0%	131	+0.72	3.70	201	80
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	80
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	80
Brandon Medders R 2005 · 3.00 FIP	25	SU	3.00	25.4%	9.0%	1.6%	.244	4.71	14.7%	5.3%	121	+1.71	3.00	235	80
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	80
Jack Sinclair R 2024 · 3.19 FIP	25	SU	3.19	23.2%	9.2%	1.6%	.229	3.99	20.6%	8.6%	124	+0.80	2.88	305	80
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	79
Josh Roenicke R 2009 · 3.25 FIP	26	SU	3.25	23.9%	10.9%	1.5%	.341	4.17	15.4%	4.7%	124	+0.92	3.25	500	79
Brian Ellington R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	27.5%	14.3%	1.6%	.252	5.01	24.6%	9.0%	97	+1.57	2.75	233	79
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	79
Alexi Ogando R 2010 · 2.83 FIP	26	SU	2.83	22.8%	8.2%	1.1%	.250	3.77	19.1%	12.0%	339	+0.94	2.83	538	79
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	79
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	35	23.7%	11.3%	0.87	3.80
Chaz Roe ('21)	1.1	43	26.4%	11.1%	0.79	3.89
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
George Sherrill ('12)	1.6	46	22.9%	11.0%	0.80	3.77
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*