Josh Ekness
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.5 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9585vR 76
ERA3.26
FIP3.26
K%26.5%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%17.0%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 23.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.82 | 4.11 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 23.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.82 | 4.28 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 66 | 268 | 83 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 0.6% | 1.91 | 2.86 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 66 | 268 | 83 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.0% | 9.3% | 21.6% | 1.1% | 1.91 | 2.31 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 54 | 247 | 68 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 4.17 | 2.35 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 54 | 247 | 68 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.5% | 10.1% | 17.4% | 0.8% | 4.17 | 2.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 17 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.5% | 9.0% | 27.5% | 1.6% | 3.74 | 2.02 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 62 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 17.0% | 2.2% | 3.26 | 3.26 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 62 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 17.0% | 2.1% | 3.23 | 3.23 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 77 | 325 | 96 | 33 | 6 | — | — | 29.5% | 10.2% | 19.2% | 1.9% | 3.40 | 2.91 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 60 | 255 | 96 | 33 | 6 | — | — | 37.5% | 13.0% | 24.5% | 2.3% | 4.28 | 2.85 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 97 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 2.2% | 3.79 | 3.74 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 97 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.79 | 3.76 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 95 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 3.82 | 3.82 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 92 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.92 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 79 | 0 | 83 | 351 | 87 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 4.05 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 74 | 0 | 78 | 330 | 87 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.95 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 69 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 80 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 93 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 3.71 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 93 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.76 | 3.73 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 81 | 0 | 85 | 359 | 90 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 3.78 | 3.78 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 79 | 0 | 83 | 350 | 87 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 3.88 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 82 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 4.01 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 82 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.91 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 76 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 595 | 0 | 624 | 2633 | 669 | 252 | 62 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 9.6% | 15.9% | 2.4% | 3.78 | 3.47 | +14.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 215 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 9.6% | 15.9% | 2.4% | 3.78 | 3.47 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 118 | 0 | 151 | 653 | 164 | 73 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 0.5% | 3.16 | 2.64 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 0 | 200 | 865 | 217 | 96 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 0.5% | 3.16 | 2.64 | +6.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Ekness (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.75 | 25.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | — | 3.77 | 25.2% | 15.8% | 272 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 91 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .304 | 4.02 | 25.6% | 14.1% | 62 | +0.30 | 2.90 | 176 | 91 |
| Zach Franklin R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 91 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 90 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.43 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 50 | -0.34 | 2.79 | 164 | 89 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.05 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 1.3% | .280 | 4.18 | 22.9% | 7.4% | 77 | +1.13 | 3.05 | 134 | 89 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 88 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 88 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 88 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 88 |
| Josh Martin R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 88 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 87 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 87 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 87 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.96 | 27.7% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .321 | 4.46 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 44 | +1.50 | 2.96 | 194 | 86 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 86 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .271 | 3.80 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.33 | 3.36 | 311 | 86 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2028 · 2.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.67 | 25.8% | 9.8% | 0.9% | .331 | 3.87 | 21.8% | 13.2% | 125 | +1.20 | 2.67 | 177 | 86 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 82 | 25.3% | 9.5% | 0.95 | 3.88 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |
| David Phelps ('22) | 6 | 62 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 0.87 | 3.55 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |