Josh Ekness — OGILVIE

Josh Ekness P Miami Marlins

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.52

FIP3.52

K%24.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5560

CTRL5045

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p1620.5%

p1015.4%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.6M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	46	11	11	0	0%	1.3	23.9%	23.9%	0.0%	0.0%	4.82	4.11	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	46	11	11	0	0%	1.3	23.9%	23.9%	0.0%	0.0%	4.82	4.11	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	46	11	11	0	0%	1.3	23.9%	23.9%	0.0%	0.0%	4.82	4.28	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	66	268	83	25	3	0%	1.4	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	0.5%	1.91	2.84	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	66	268	83	25	3	0%	1.4	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	0.5%	1.91	2.84	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	66	268	83	25	3	0%	1.4	31.0%	9.3%	21.6%	1.1%	1.91	2.31	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	247	68	25	2	0%	1.2	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	0.0%	4.17	2.35	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	247	68	25	2	0%	1.2	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	0.0%	4.17	2.35	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	54	247	68	25	2	0%	1.2	27.5%	10.1%	17.4%	0.8%	4.17	2.45	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	0	23	104	16	16	2	0%	1.0	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	1.9%	4.37	4.95	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	38	0	44	192	49	22	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	2.2%	4.12	3.83	+0.4
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	38	0	44	192	49	22	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	2.2%	4.12	3.83	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	MIA	15	0	21	88	33	6	2	0%	1.4	37.5%	6.8%	30.7%	2.3%	3.86	2.04	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	MIA	23	0	23	104	16	16	2	0%	1.0	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	1.9%	4.37	4.81	-0.1
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	MIA	23	0	23	104	16	16	2	0%	1.0	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	1.9%	4.37	4.81	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.1%	14.4%	2.2%	3.52	3.52	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIA	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.1%	14.4%	2.1%	3.46	3.46	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	50	217	55	24	5	—	—	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	2.1%	4.05	3.80	+0.4
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	29	120	55	24	5	—	—	45.7%	20.3%	25.4%	3.7%	7.02	3.87	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	87	0	91	385	91	39	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.1%	13.5%	2.2%	4.05	3.98	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	87	0	91	385	92	38	9	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	2.3%	4.00	3.95	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	85	0	90	379	90	37	9	0%	1.1	23.8%	9.8%	14.0%	2.4%	4.01	4.00	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	83	0	87	367	87	36	9	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	2.5%	4.06	4.09	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	79	0	83	351	82	36	9	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.6%	4.16	4.22	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIA	74	0	78	330	83	32	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	2.8%	4.14	4.13	+0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	83	0	87	367	86	37	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.1%	13.5%	2.1%	3.99	3.92	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	83	0	87	367	88	36	8	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	2.2%	3.94	3.89	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	81	0	85	359	86	35	8	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.8%	14.0%	2.2%	3.95	3.94	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	79	0	83	350	83	35	8	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	2.4%	3.99	4.02	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	75	0	79	334	78	34	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.5%	4.09	4.15	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIA	70	0	74	312	78	30	8	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	2.7%	4.06	4.05	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		499	0	523	2215	521	225	51	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.2%	13.4%	2.3%	4.01	3.67	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	848	199	86	20	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.2%	13.4%	2.3%	4.01	3.67	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		139	0	173	753	174	86	6	0%	1.2	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	0.8%	3.33	3.01	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	0	200	871	201	99	7	0%	1.2	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	0.8%	3.33	3.01	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Ekness (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.78	25.3%	9.8%	2.2%	—	3.98	23.8%	13.9%	272	+0.20	—	—	—
José Ramírez R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	19.5%	12.2%	1.8%	.312	3.91	22.4%	11.8%	136	-0.08	3.36	206	86
Kelvin Herrera R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	25	SU	3.35	22.4%	8.7%	1.9%	.245	3.35	25.0%	19.6%	176	-0.00	2.33	297	84
Jairo Díaz R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.281	3.33	20.2%	10.3%	18	-1.20	2.99	190	84
Bruce Rondón R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	24	SU	3.77	23.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.336	3.39	26.7%	14.0%	140	-0.38	3.31	184	83
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	83
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	82
Tayron Guerrero R 2015 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	20.9%	13.9%	1.7%	.260	4.37	21.9%	9.1%	139	+0.35	2.24	374	82
Brad Goldberg R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SU	4.07	18.2%	11.7%	1.9%	.333	3.86	21.4%	7.2%	139	-0.21	3.14	197	82
Brian Ellington R 2015 · 2.75 FIP	24	SU	2.75	20.5%	9.2%	0.4%	.239	4.10	26.5%	11.9%	136	+1.35	2.75	233	81
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	81
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	81
Colton Murray R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	25	SU	3.34	20.5%	10.4%	1.2%	.251	4.08	21.4%	12.3%	109	+0.74	3.34	187	81
Will Vest R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	.282	3.65	20.9%	11.9%	124	-0.06	2.56	448	81
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	80
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	80
Emilio Pagán R 2015 · 3.48 FIP	24	SU	3.48	20.8%	9.2%	1.8%	.280	3.78	26.0%	18.4%	209	+0.30	2.67	719	80
Matt Carasiti R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	24	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.8%	1.8%	.309	3.26	24.8%	15.5%	104	-0.59	2.80	312	80
Stephen Johnson R 2015 · 3.12 FIP	24	SU	3.12	22.8%	11.7%	0.8%	.276	5.15	16.7%	4.0%	75	+2.03	3.12	141	80
Carlos Estévez R 2017 · 3.16 FIP	24	SU	3.16	21.8%	8.1%	1.6%	.305	4.08	25.1%	17.5%	124	+0.92	2.48	603	80
Colby Blueberg R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	22.7%	11.5%	1.6%	.315	4.14	20.3%	9.8%	50	+0.62	2.36	229	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	24.1%	9.9%	0.93	4.02
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Spencer Turnbull ('24)	1.7	68	22.0%	9.2%	0.77	4.18
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45