Sabin Ceballos

3B Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 24 R/R 6'2" / 236 lbs AA HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	AASF	420	.232/.334/.338	6	4	65	—	.214/.295/.295
2025	22	INTLGigantes de C…	48	.200/.250/.289	1	1	52	—
2026	23	AASF	504	.227/.358/.398	18	11	76	—	.199/.300/.336
2027PROJ2% MLB	24	MLBSF	6	.212/.298/.324	0	0	82	0.0
2028PROJ39% MLB	25	MLBSF	143	.214/.300/.329	3	2	84	0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	26	MLBSF	227	.215/.301/.332	5	3	85	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.4M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%84

BB%83

Whiff%74

ISO63

wRC+62

Z-Con%61

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsOrlando Mercado (age 24) · Abrahan Gutierrez (age 24) · Alika Williams (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .298 / .324

PA6

HR0

K%17

BB%17

BABIP258

ISO117

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	20	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	35	32	9	0	0	1	3	11	0	0	0	281	343	375	718	94	400	31	9	326	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	FCL Braves	—	15	8	3	0	0	0	6	3	1	2	0	375	667	375	1.042		600	20	40	509	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	517	450	121	30	1	10	52	104	11	9	6	269	359	407	765	138	326	20	10	344	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	17	14	3	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	214	353	214	567		333	29	12	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	420	358	83	20	0	6	47	73	8	4	3	232	334	338	672	106	273	17	11	306	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	48	45	9	1	0	1	3	9	0	1	2	200	250	289	539	89	229	19	6	246	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	504	415	94	17	0	18	72	90	13	11	2	227	358	398	756	171	245	18	14	342	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	35	33	8	0	0	1	2	15	0	0	0	242	286	333	619	91	385	43	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	15	10	3	0	0	0	4	4	1	2	0	300	533	300	833		496	27	27	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	517	465	102	25	1	8	37	145	11	9	6	219	292	329	621	110	288	28	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	420	370	79	18	0	4	35	87	8	4	3	214	295	295	590	81	261	21	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	504	437	87	15	0	15	50	110	13	11	2	199	300	336	636	137	223	22	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	50	43	11	0	0	1	6	19	1	2	0	256	360	326	686	70	435	38	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	50	40	12	0	0	1	9	14	1	2	0	300	440	375	815	75	440	28	18	381	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	534	480	105	26	1	8	38	150	12	9	6	219	292	327	620	108	298	28	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	534	464	124	30	1	10	54	109	12	9	6	267	358	401	759	134	327	20	10	342	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	468	414	89	20	0	5	39	97	8	5	5	215	295	300	595	85	267	21	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	468	403	92	21	0	7	50	82	8	5	5	228	325	333	658	104	268	18	11	300	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	504	437	87	15	0	15	50	110	13	11	2	199	300	336	636	137	229	22	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	504	415	94	17	0	18	72	90	13	11	2	227	358	398	756	171	245	18	14	342	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	50	43	11	0	0	1	6	19	1	2	0	256	360	326	686	70	418	38	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	534	479	105	26	1	8	38	150	12	9	6	219	292	328	620	109	288	28	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	468	418	89	20	0	5	39	97	8	5	5	213	295	297	592	84	261	21	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	504	436	87	15	0	15	50	110	13	11	2	200	300	337	637	138	223	22	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	534	479	105	26	1	8	38	150	12	9	6	219	292	328	620	109	288	28	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	468	418	89	20	0	5	39	97	8	5	5	213	295	297	592	84	261	21	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	504	436	87	15	0	15	50	110	13	11	2	200	300	337	637	138	223	22	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	2%	380	336	72	15	0	8	34	84	7	5	2	215	301	332	634	117	261	22	9	289	82	-8	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	2%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	212	298	324	622	112	258	17	17	284	82	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	39%	370	327	71	14	1	8	33	82	7	5	2	218	303	339	642	121	263	22	9	292	84	-7	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	56%	407	360	79	16	1	9	37	90	7	5	2	219	304	342	646	123	264	22	9	293	85	-7	+0	+2	+1	+9	0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	62%	420	372	81	16	1	9	38	93	7	5	2	219	304	342	646	123	265	22	9	293	85	-8	+0	+2	+1	+9	0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	65%	425	377	82	16	1	9	38	96	7	4	2	218	303	341	644	122	265	23	9	292	84	-8	+0	+1	+2	+9	0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	64%	420	372	81	16	1	9	38	96	7	3	2	217	301	338	638	120	265	23	9	290	82	-9	-0	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	64%	414	367	79	16	0	9	37	95	7	2	2	214	297	329	626	115	262	23	9	285	79	-10	-0	-0	+1	+9	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	39%	143	126	27	6	0	3	13	32	3	2	1	214	300	329	629	116	259	22	9	287	84	-3	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	56%	227	200	43	9	0	5	21	50	4	3	1	215	301	332	633	117	260	22	9	288	85	-4	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	62%	259	229	48	10	0	5	23	58	5	3	1	215	301	333	633	118	261	22	9	288	85	-5	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	65%	275	243	52	11	0	6	25	62	5	3	1	215	299	331	631	117	261	23	9	287	84	-5	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	64%	271	241	50	10	0	5	24	62	4	2	1	213	297	328	625	115	261	23	9	285	82	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	64%	267	237	49	10	0	5	24	62	4	1	1	210	293	320	614	110	259	23	9	280	79	-7	-0	-0	+1	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1442	1276	269	56	0	29	130	326	25	14	6	211	296	323	619	112	259	23	9	286	78	-29	+0	+3	+5	+31	1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	121	25	0	13	59	147	11	6	3	210	296	322	618	111	258	23	9	286	78	-13	+0	+1	+2	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4332	3831	825	167	6	89	383	999	82	55	26	215	300	332	632	116	266	23	9	284	78	-57	+0	+7	+10	+60	2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	123	25	1	13	57	150	12	8	4	214	298	329	627	115	264	23	9	284	78	-13	+0	+2	+2	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.2	1,447	32	14	218	299	340	+5	+8	1.6	1.6
/162	664	15	7	+2.4	+3.7	0.7	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sabin Ceballos (OGILVIE)	24	36→40	35→39	40	58	213/299/329	116	261	7	4	22%	9%	82	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Orlando Mercado 2009 · AA	24	44	42→45	39→40	57	215/308/316	101	247	10	4	17%	11%	81	-0.1	231/299/304	73	267	5	4	14%	8%	74	-0.6	234/295/297	64	268	4	2	14%	8%	69	-0.5
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2024 · AA	24	44→41	42→45	43→40	46	214/283/317	104	276	10	4	25%	8%	72	-0.7	219/267/300	81	280	6	5	23%	5%	61	-1.5	225/261/287	62	286	4	2	22%	4%	51	-0.5
✕Alika Williams 2023 · AAA	24	42→45	42→45	43→45	44	210/266/307	97	266	10	7	25%	6%	62	-1.4	225/280/328	103	288	9	7	24%	6%	72	-0.7	245/294/352	106	307	8	5	22%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Luis Vázquez 2024 · AAA	24	46→47	46→45	42→50	42	227/286/351	124	297	14	10	28%	6%	80	-0.1	228/285/350	122	302	13	11	28%	6%	80	-0.2	221/274/331	110	296	12	13	28%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Adam Donachie 2008 · AA	24	42	45	41→30	46	213/279/334	121	275	14	2	27%	8%	74	-0.6	194/261/285	91	265	9	3	28%	8%	56	-1.9	171/241/257	87	234	9	0	29%	8%	41	-1.3
✕Quincy McAfee 2022 · AA	24	42	43→45	48→45	50	206/300/320	113	269	10	10	25%	9%	79	-0.2	193/276/313	120	251	12	8	27%	8%	69	-0.9	178/260/298	120	224	14	8	26%	7%	57	-1.0
✕Tyler Ogle 2015 · A	24	45→43	45→50	39→30	54	224/311/349	125	271	13	3	22%	10%	90	+0.6	211/282/359	148	263	18	3	26%	8%	81	-0.1	192/263/353	161	229	22	0	27%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	40→39	47→50	47→45	51	202/293/345	143	270	14	9	29%	11%	82	+0.0	198/291/335	137	280	14	7	32%	10%	79	-0.2	177/277/302	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	66	-0.8
✕Renae Martinez 2018 · A	24	45→31	43→45	40	44	222/275/329	108	272	12	5	23%	6%	71	-0.8	211/271/317	106	281	10	3	27%	6%	67	-1.1	190/256/297	106	260	11	2	30%	7%	54	-1.1
✕Yusniel Díaz 2021 · AA	24	47→54	47→45	42→50	47	232/295/371	139	295	14	7	25%	8%	88	+0.4	203/264/311	108	285	11	9	31%	7%	63	-1.4	203/270/314	111	271	13	9	29%	8%	64	-0.7
✕Alsander Womack 2023 · A	24	46→47	44→45	44→45	47	230/287/335	106	275	12	7	21%	7%	77	-0.3	221/284/305	84	277	8	9	22%	7%	69	-0.9	215/283/285	70	269	7	8	22%	7%	61	-0.8
✕Adam Fox 2006 · AA	24	44→43	43→45	46→45	49	219/282/327	108	252	12	10	18%	7%	73	-0.6	218/270/334	116	263	11	8	21%	6%	70	-0.8	212/260/332	120	258	14	7	24%	5%	63	-0.9
✕Jacob Wilson 2015 · AA	25	44→48	46→50	43→40	46	221/280/353	133	261	13	5	21%	6%	79	-0.2	197/257/323	126	244	14	4	25%	6%	63	-1.3	220/285/374	154	261	17	1	22%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Clay Harris 2007 · A	24	41→44	44→45	43→30	47	206/278/322	116	266	11	2	26%	8%	71	-0.8	228/300/357	129	272	14	2	21%	8%	87	+0.4	234/310/367	133	268	15	0	18%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Jeremy Lucas 2015 · AA	24	45→44	46→45	46→30	49	223/295/358	136	273	13	3	23%	8%	85	+0.2	222/287/333	111	276	11	3	23%	7%	76	-0.4	222/287/326	104	272	10	1	21%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Andrew Navigato 2022 · AA	24	41	44→55	46→50	45	204/280/319	115	283	11	13	30%	8%	72	-0.7	220/279/374	154	275	17	14	26%	6%	84	+0.1	218/278/389	170	267	20	17	26%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Luca Tresh 2024 · AA	24	40→42	47→50	43→40	46	207/272/339	131	258	16	4	26%	8%	72	-0.7	210/264/345	135	277	15	4	29%	6%	70	-0.8	208/257/339	131	282	15	2	31%	5%	64	-0.8
✕Walter Sevilla 2006 · A	24	44	44→45	41→45	49	217/282/333	116	263	11	7	22%	8%	74	-0.5	205/264/303	98	264	8	7	24%	7%	60	-1.6	173/230/257	84	223	5	4	24%	7%	34	-1.2
✕Austin Davidson 2017 · A	24	44→42	44→45	43→45	48	216/287/333	117	252	11	6	19%	7%	76	-0.4	221/281/332	111	278	9	6	23%	7%	74	-0.6	214/275/321	107	273	9	5	23%	7%	67	-0.7
✕Corey Joyce 2023 · AAA	24	44	46→40	49→50	49	214/312/344	129	290	14	11	29%	10%	89	+0.5	212/309/310	98	304	8	14	30%	10%	80	-0.1	207/293/299	92	288	9	15	29%	9%	68	-0.6

Sabin Ceballos

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps