Dylan Carmouche

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 LHP 6'5" / 233 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	27	24	122	3.38	3.28	25.4%	9.8%	—	K 19.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.35
2025	23	MIX2 levels	19	15	80	3.36	3.55	22.9%	7.0%	—	K 17.4% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.38
2026	24	MIX3 levels	21	8	54	7.21	5.35	21.4%	13.1%	—	K 15.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 6.44
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	10	10	60	5.37	5.37	15.6%	11.1%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSF	5	5	31	5.23	5.22	16.9%	10.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSF	8	8	45	5.17	5.19	17.3%	10.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMatt Walker (age 25) · Jack Snodgrass (age 27) · John Koronka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%15.6%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	122	508	129	50	10	89%	4.5	19.0%	11.6%	7.5%	2.5%	3.38	4.35	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	122	508	129	50	10	89%	4.5	19.0%	11.6%	7.5%	2.5%	3.38	4.35	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	122	508	129	50	10	89%	4.5	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	2.0%	3.38	3.28	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	80	328	75	23	9	79%	4.2	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.2%	3.36	4.38	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	80	328	75	23	9	79%	4.2	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.2%	3.36	4.38	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	15	80	328	75	23	9	79%	4.2	22.9%	7.0%	15.9%	2.7%	3.36	3.55	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	8	54	252	54	33	10	38%	2.6	15.6%	12.9%	2.7%	5.5%	7.21	6.44	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	8	54	252	54	33	10	38%	2.6	15.6%	12.9%	2.7%	5.5%	7.21	6.44	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	8	54	252	54	33	10	38%	2.6	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	4.0%	7.21	5.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	10	10	60	253	39	28	8	100%	6.0	15.6%	11.1%	4.5%	3.3%	5.37	5.37	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	72	305	51	33	10	100%	6.0	16.9%	10.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.23	5.22	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	71	301	52	32	10	100%	5.9	17.3%	10.8%	6.6%	3.3%	5.17	5.19	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	69	292	51	32	10	100%	5.8	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	3.4%	5.18	5.23	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	66	279	49	31	10	100%	6.0	17.4%	11.0%	6.4%	3.5%	5.26	5.33	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	62	262	45	30	10	100%	6.2	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	3.7%	5.41	5.51	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	31	131	22	14	4	100%	6.2	16.9%	10.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.23	5.22	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	45	190	33	20	6	100%	5.6	17.3%	10.8%	6.6%	3.3%	5.17	5.19	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	52	220	38	24	7	100%	5.8	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	3.4%	5.18	5.23	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	54	228	40	25	8	100%	6.0	17.4%	11.0%	6.4%	3.5%	5.26	5.33	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	53	224	38	25	8	100%	5.9	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	3.7%	5.41	5.51	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	235	991	171	109	34	100%	6.0	17.3%	11.0%	6.3%	3.5%	5.26	4.93	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	93	29	100%	6.0	17.3%	11.0%	6.3%	3.5%	5.26	4.93	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		67	47	256	1088	193	117	37	70%	3.8	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	4.18	4.84	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	849	151	91	29	70%	3.8	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	4.18	4.84	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Carmouche (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	15.6%	11.1%	3.3%	—	5.21	17.2%	6.4%	213	-0.16	—	—	—
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	82
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	82
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	80
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	80
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	79
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	79
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	78
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	78
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	77
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	77
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	77
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	76
J.C. Romero L 2001 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP-	4.89	13.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.285	3.46	20.7%	10.3%	218	-1.43	2.88	652	76
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	75
Pedro Hernandez L 2013 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	11.0%	8.4%	3.8%	.347	4.09	13.1%	4.2%	68	-1.22	4.09	124	75
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	75
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	75
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	67	17.0%	11.0%	1.32	5.26
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*