Chase Centala

P Everett AquaSox

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AMIA	6	0	10	3.72	4.44	15.4%	10.3%	—	K 15.4% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.51
2025	23	MIX3 levels	47	1	72	3.25	3.45	20.7%	7.8%	—	K 16.1% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.37
2026	24	A+SEA	21	14	69	5.84	3.10	22.3%	6.5%	—	K 17.2% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	25	MLBSEA	46	0	48	4.58	4.58	17.8%	8.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSEA	27	0	28	4.51	4.49	19.1%	8.2%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSEA	38	0	40	4.51	4.51	19.4%	8.4%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsBrad Deppermann (age 25) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Shohei Tomioka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%17.8%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	10	39	6	4	1	0%	1.6	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.6%	3.72	4.51	—
2024	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	10	39	6	4	1	0%	1.6	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.6%	3.72	4.51	—
2024	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	10	39	6	4	1	0%	1.6	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.6%	3.72	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	1	72	295	61	23	6	2%	1.5	16.1%	9.4%	6.7%	2.6%	3.25	4.37	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	1	72	295	61	23	6	2%	1.5	16.1%	9.4%	6.7%	2.6%	3.25	4.37	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	1	72	295	61	23	6	2%	1.5	20.7%	7.8%	12.9%	2.0%	3.25	3.45	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	21	14	69	309	69	20	6	67%	3.3	17.2%	7.4%	9.8%	2.4%	5.84	3.92	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	21	14	69	309	69	20	6	67%	3.3	17.2%	7.4%	9.8%	2.4%	5.84	3.92	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	21	14	69	309	69	20	6	67%	3.3	22.3%	6.5%	15.9%	1.9%	5.84	3.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SEA	46	0	48	203	36	17	6	0%	1.0	17.8%	8.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	52	23	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	8.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.49	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	SEA	61	0	64	269	52	23	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	SEA	27	0	28	118	23	10	3	0%	1.0	19.1%	8.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.49	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SEA	38	0	40	169	33	14	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	0	68	287	55	24	8	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.51	4.12	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	71	24	0%	1.1	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.51	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		74	15	151	643	107	55	16	20%	2.0	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	2.5%	4.47	4.16	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	20	200	852	141	72	21	20%	2.0	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	2.5%	4.47	4.16	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Centala (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	17.8%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.50	19.2%	10.9%	129	-0.08	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	93
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	87
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	86
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	85
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	85
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	84
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	82
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	82
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	81
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	81
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	81
Michael Flynn R 2022 · 3.89 FIP	25	SW	3.89	14.2%	8.4%	1.7%	.362	4.41	24.5%	14.0%	98	+0.52	3.89	168	81
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	80
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	80
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	80
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	80
Seth McGarry R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	17.1%	9.6%	3.2%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	261	80
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	18.8%	8.3%	1.12	4.53
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Trevor Gott ('15-'23, -1 WAR*)	1.2	61	18.5%*	8.4%*	1.01*	4.85*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*