Austin Amaral

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	17	3	38	4.03	4.57	20.0%	14.1%	—	K 12.1% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.94
2025	23	MIX3 levels	44	0	70	2.45	2.87	21.5%	7.6%	—	K 16.5% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.56
2026	24	MIX3 levels	32	3	48	2.45	2.76	27.3%	15.6%	—	K 21.9% · BB 18.0% · FIP 3.53
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	57	0	60	5.23	5.23	17.3%	14.4%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	26	0	27	5.12	5.11	18.1%	13.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	37	0	39	5.08	5.09	18.5%	13.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKevin Kopps (age 25) · Juan Paniagua (age 25) · Cole Hillier (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%17.3%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	4	3	8	36	13	5	0	75%	2.0	36.1%	13.9%	22.2%	0.0%	3.38	1.81	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	4	3	8	36	13	5	0	75%	2.0	36.1%	13.9%	22.2%	0.0%	3.38	1.73	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	3	38	170	34	24	4	18%	2.2	12.1%	14.4%	-2.4%	3.7%	4.03	5.94	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	3	38	170	34	24	4	18%	2.2	12.1%	14.4%	-2.4%	3.7%	4.03	5.94	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	3	38	170	34	24	4	18%	2.2	20.0%	14.1%	5.9%	2.4%	4.03	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	70	275	59	21	3	0%	1.6	16.5%	8.7%	7.8%	1.4%	2.45	3.56	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	70	275	59	21	3	0%	1.6	16.5%	8.7%	7.8%	1.4%	2.45	3.56	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	70	275	59	21	3	0%	1.6	21.5%	7.6%	13.8%	1.1%	2.45	2.87	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	3	48	205	56	32	0	9%	1.5	21.9%	18.0%	3.9%	0.0%	2.45	3.53	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	3	48	205	56	32	0	9%	1.5	21.9%	18.0%	3.9%	0.0%	2.45	3.53	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	3	48	205	56	32	0	9%	1.5	27.3%	15.6%	11.7%	0.0%	2.45	2.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	57	0	60	253	44	37	6	0%	1.1	17.3%	14.4%	2.8%	2.5%	5.23	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	60	0	63	265	48	37	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.9%	4.2%	2.6%	5.12	5.11	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	59	0	62	261	48	35	7	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.6%	4.9%	2.6%	5.08	5.09	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	26	0	27	114	21	16	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.9%	4.2%	2.6%	5.12	5.11	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	37	0	39	165	30	22	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.6%	4.9%	2.6%	5.08	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	278	51	38	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	13.7%	4.6%	2.6%	5.10	4.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	115	21	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.7%	4.6%	2.6%	5.10	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		97	9	163	686	124	90	10	9%	1.7	18.0%	13.2%	4.9%	1.5%	2.87	4.05	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	11	200	840	151	111	12	9%	1.7	18.0%	13.2%	4.9%	1.5%	2.87	4.05	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Amaral (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	17.3%	14.4%	2.5%	—	5.10	18.3%	4.6%	124	-0.13	—	—	—
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	90
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	88
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	88
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	87
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	87
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	86
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	86
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	86
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	86
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	85
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	85
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	85
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	18.0%	14.0%	0.99	5.14
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*