Justice Bigbie
OF Erie SeaWolves| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAADET | 558 | .248/.336/.334 | 4 | 8 | 61 | — | .217/.284/.294 |
| 2025 | 26 | AADET | 452 | .283/.362/.414 | 12 | 1 | 87 | — | .261/.317/.357 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AADET | 507 | .311/.392/.419 | 8 | 9 | 103 | — | .294/.354/.381 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBDET | 3 | .257/.317/.345 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBDET | 90 | .254/.315/.342 | 1 | 1 | 90 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ35% MLB | 30 | MLBDET | 81 | .250/.311/.337 | 1 | 0 | 88 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers West | — | 118 | 99 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 368 | 374 | 741 | 121 | 315 | 21 | 14 | 337 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 34 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 387 | 441 | 613 | 1.054 | 226 | 458 | 18 | 6 | 461 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 372 | 330 | 85 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 89 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 258 | 340 | 358 | 697 | 100 | 346 | 24 | 8 | 318 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 58 | 51 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 351 | 392 | 743 | 118 | 361 | 26 | 9 | 331 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 272 | 243 | 88 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 362 | 422 | 564 | 986 | 202 | 382 | 12 | 8 | 430 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 155 | 138 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 333 | 403 | 543 | 946 | 210 | 381 | 18 | 10 | 413 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 83 | 72 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 292 | 378 | 375 | 753 | 83 | 323 | 12 | 12 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 558 | 488 | 121 | 26 | 2 | 4 | 60 | 104 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 248 | 336 | 334 | 670 | 86 | 304 | 19 | 11 | 306 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 452 | 399 | 113 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 283 | 362 | 414 | 775 | 130 | 314 | 15 | 10 | 347 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 129 | 115 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 328 | 313 | 641 | 61 | 283 | 12 | 10 | 295 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 378 | 329 | 109 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 60 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 331 | 413 | 456 | 869 | 125 | 385 | 16 | 10 | 388 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers West | — | 118 | 107 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 265 | 299 | 564 | 103 | 255 | 31 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 34 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 344 | 382 | 562 | 945 | 219 | 413 | 24 | 3 | 381 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 372 | 339 | 70 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 123 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 275 | 277 | 552 | 71 | 315 | 33 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 58 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 316 | 346 | 662 | 96 | 341 | 31 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 272 | 251 | 86 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 343 | 389 | 502 | 891 | 159 | 381 | 16 | 6 | 383 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 155 | 143 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 280 | 331 | 448 | 779 | 168 | 333 | 23 | 6 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 558 | 506 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 122 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 217 | 284 | 294 | 578 | 77 | 272 | 22 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 452 | 414 | 108 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 261 | 317 | 357 | 674 | 97 | 297 | 18 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 129 | 119 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 297 | 303 | 599 | 59 | 272 | 14 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 378 | 341 | 106 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 73 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 311 | 373 | 408 | 781 | 97 | 373 | 19 | 7 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers West | — | 118 | 107 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 265 | 299 | 564 | 103 | 271 | 31 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK RAW | FCL Tigers West | — | 118 | 99 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 368 | 374 | 741 | 121 | 315 | 21 | 14 | 337 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 370 | 81 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 131 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 219 | 286 | 303 | 589 | 84 | 332 | 32 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 406 | 361 | 97 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 95 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 269 | 348 | 380 | 728 | 111 | 356 | 23 | 7 | 330 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 568 | 524 | 164 | 26 | 1 | 18 | 33 | 114 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 313 | 361 | 469 | 830 | 156 | 368 | 20 | 6 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 568 | 504 | 169 | 28 | 1 | 20 | 52 | 87 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 335 | 403 | 514 | 917 | 179 | 371 | 15 | 9 | 402 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 558 | 506 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 122 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 217 | 284 | 294 | 578 | 77 | 275 | 22 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 558 | 488 | 121 | 26 | 2 | 4 | 60 | 104 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 248 | 336 | 334 | 670 | 86 | 304 | 19 | 11 | 306 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 452 | 414 | 108 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 261 | 317 | 357 | 674 | 97 | 302 | 18 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 452 | 399 | 113 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 283 | 362 | 414 | 775 | 130 | 314 | 15 | 10 | 347 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 460 | 135 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 91 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 293 | 354 | 380 | 734 | 87 | 352 | 18 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 507 | 444 | 138 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 75 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 311 | 392 | 419 | 811 | 108 | 357 | 15 | 10 | 364 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers West | — | 118 | 107 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 265 | 299 | 564 | 103 | 255 | 31 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 368 | 81 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 131 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 220 | 286 | 304 | 591 | 84 | 323 | 32 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 568 | 524 | 164 | 26 | 1 | 18 | 33 | 114 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 313 | 361 | 469 | 830 | 156 | 361 | 20 | 6 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 558 | 506 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 122 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 217 | 284 | 294 | 578 | 77 | 272 | 22 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 452 | 415 | 108 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 260 | 317 | 357 | 674 | 96 | 297 | 18 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 459 | 135 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 91 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 294 | 354 | 381 | 735 | 87 | 347 | 18 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 558 | 506 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 122 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 217 | 284 | 294 | 578 | 77 | 272 | 22 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 452 | 415 | 108 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 260 | 317 | 357 | 674 | 96 | 297 | 18 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 459 | 135 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 91 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 294 | 354 | 381 | 735 | 87 | 347 | 18 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | DET | 2% | 380 | 347 | 90 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 73 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 261 | 321 | 352 | 674 | 91 | 314 | 19 | 7 | 304 | 92 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | DET | 2% | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 317 | 345 | 663 | 88 | 309 | 33 | 0 | 299 | 92 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 23% | 397 | 362 | 93 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 77 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 258 | 318 | 349 | 667 | 91 | 312 | 19 | 7 | 301 | 90 | -5 | -0 | -1 | -2 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 35% | 232 | 211 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 254 | 315 | 344 | 659 | 90 | 309 | 20 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -3 | -0 | -2 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 23% | 90 | 83 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 315 | 342 | 656 | 88 | 307 | 20 | 7 | 297 | 90 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 35% | 81 | 74 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 311 | 337 | 648 | 87 | 304 | 20 | 7 | 293 | 88 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 171 | 157 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 304 | 318 | 623 | 76 | 298 | 20 | 7 | 295 | 88 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 145 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 129 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 243 | 306 | 322 | 628 | 79 | 298 | 20 | 7 | 295 | 88 | -9 | +1 | -4 | -4 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3393 | 3096 | 802 | 131 | 10 | 51 | 230 | 728 | 41 | 36 | 22 | 259 | 319 | 357 | 676 | 98 | 321 | 21 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -10 | -0 | -3 | -5 | +17 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 154 | 25 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 139 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 260 | 319 | 359 | 679 | 99 | 321 | 21 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -8 | -0 | -3 | -4 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 378 PAwOBA .381 → .343 (−38)K% 15.9% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.87% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 30.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.99% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .381 → .343; ISO .125 → .104; BABIP .385 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 129 PAwOBA .287 → .257 (−30)K% 11.6% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.63% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 23.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 3.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.70% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .287 → .257; ISO .061 → .050; BABIP .283 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 452 PAwOBA .340 → .297 (−43)K% 15.3% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.27% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.18% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.76% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 25.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.85% | ÷1.075 | ×0.860 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 3.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.115 | ×0.950 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.65% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .340 → .297; ISO .130 → .100; BABIP .314 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 558 PAwOBA .302 → .258 (−43)K% 18.6% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.64% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.75% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.18% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 20.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.77% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .302 → .258; ISO .086 → .077; BABIP .304 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 272 PAwOBA .421 → .383 (−39)K% 12.5% → 16.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.09% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.14% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×1.012 | 30.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.22% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×1.039 | ×1.012 | 6.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×1.039 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.30% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .421 → .383; ISO .202 → .164; BABIP .382 → .381. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 155 PAwOBA .402 → .339 (−63)K% 18.1% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.06% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 22.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.03% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 24.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.18% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.89% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .402 → .339; ISO .210 → .178; BABIP .381 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 58 PAwOBA .328 → .286 (−43)K% 25.9% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.86% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.62% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 28.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 6.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .328 → .286; ISO .118 → .090; BABIP .361 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 372 PAwOBA .311 → .246 (−65)K% 23.9% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.92% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.53% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 5.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.31% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×0.990 | 23.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.05% | ÷0.974 | ×0.830 | ×1.028 | ×0.990 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.07% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×1.028 | ×0.990 | 1.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.279 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.51% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 108, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .311 → .246; ISO .100 → .076; BABIP .346 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .