Brandon Pfaadt — OGILVIE

Brandon Pfaadt P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION134 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA4.34

FIP4.16

K%17.6%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

SL+1.3 (14%)

CT+1.1 (12%)

SI (17%)

CU (15%)

FB-0.6 (44%)

CH-2.2 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.2M
2027	Ext	$9M	+0.9	$3M	-$5M
2028	Ext	$9M	+0.6	$2M	-$5M
2029	Ext	$9M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$6M
2030	Ext	$9M	—	—	—
Totals		$37M		$6M	-$23M

Options · projected decision
2031	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	MUTUAL OPT	$25.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$23M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	132	529	160	28	22	100%	6.0	23.2%	6.1%	17.2%	4.7%	3.21	4.48	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	132	529	160	28	22	100%	6.0	30.2%	5.3%	25.0%	4.2%	3.21	3.48	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	167	689	218	33	28	100%	5.8	26.4%	5.2%	21.2%	4.5%	3.83	4.00	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	167	689	218	33	28	100%	5.8	31.6%	4.8%	26.9%	4.1%	3.83	3.26	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	157	676	163	42	33	97%	5.1	22.4%	6.0%	16.4%	5.2%	4.94	4.83	+0.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	157	676	163	42	33	97%	5.1	22.4%	6.0%	16.4%	5.2%	4.94	4.83	+0.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	157	676	163	42	33	97%	5.1	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	4.9%	4.94	4.56	+0.6
2024	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	182	760	185	41	24	100%	5.7	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.3%	4.71	3.56	+3.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	182	760	185	41	24	100%	5.7	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.3%	4.71	3.56	+3.0
2024	25	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	182	760	185	41	24	100%	5.7	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.2%	4.71	3.46	+3.2
2025	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	177	767	147	35	26	100%	5.4	19.2%	4.6%	14.6%	3.6%	5.25	4.03	+1.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	177	767	147	35	26	100%	5.4	19.2%	4.6%	14.6%	3.6%	5.25	4.03	+1.8
2025	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	177	767	147	35	26	100%	5.4	19.2%	4.6%	14.6%	3.4%	5.25	3.94	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			111	100	578	2461	510	130	86	90%	5.2	20.7%	5.3%	15.4%	3.5%	4.84	3.94	+6.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	20	134	550	91	30	15	67%	4.5	16.4%	5.5%	10.9%	2.9%	3.63	3.99	+1.4
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	20	134	550	91	30	15	67%	4.5	16.4%	5.5%	10.9%	2.9%	3.63	3.99	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	ARI	3	3	10	37	7	2	1	100%	3.3	18.9%	5.4%	13.5%	2.7%	1.80	3.67	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	ARI	27	17	124	513	84	28	14	63%	4.6	16.4%	5.5%	10.9%	2.7%	3.77	3.91	+1.5
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	ARI	27	17	124	513	84	28	14	63%	4.6	16.4%	5.5%	10.9%	2.7%	3.77	3.91	+1.5
ROS	27	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	15	62	11	3	2	100%	7.3	17.6%	5.3%	12.3%	3.4%	4.34	4.16	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	15	63	11	3	2	100%	7.5	17.6%	5.3%	12.3%	3.2%	4.24	4.06	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	149	612	102	33	17	—	—	16.7%	5.4%	11.2%	2.8%	3.70	4.01	+1.6
FULL	27	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	139	585	102	33	17	—	—	17.4%	5.7%	11.7%	2.9%	3.95	3.94	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	ARI	29	29	173	731	131	40	24	100%	6.0	17.9%	5.4%	12.5%	3.2%	4.47	4.44	+0.9
2028	29	MLB MLE	ARI	28	28	165	698	121	40	24	100%	5.9	17.3%	5.7%	11.7%	3.4%	4.55	4.60	+0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	155	656	109	39	24	100%	6.0	16.6%	6.0%	10.7%	3.6%	4.70	4.80	+0.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	145	612	97	39	23	100%	6.0	15.9%	6.3%	9.6%	3.8%	4.90	5.03	-0.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	134	566	85	38	23	100%	6.1	15.1%	6.7%	8.4%	4.1%	5.13	5.29	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	ARI	29	29	173	730	131	40	22	100%	6.0	17.9%	5.4%	12.5%	3.1%	4.37	4.34	+0.9
2028	29	MLB CTX	ARI	28	28	165	697	121	39	22	100%	5.9	17.3%	5.7%	11.7%	3.2%	4.45	4.50	+0.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	ARI	26	26	155	654	109	39	22	100%	6.0	16.6%	6.0%	10.7%	3.4%	4.59	4.69	+0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	145	612	97	39	22	100%	6.0	15.9%	6.3%	9.6%	3.6%	4.78	4.91	-0.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	134	566	85	38	22	100%	6.1	15.1%	6.7%	8.4%	3.8%	5.01	5.17	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		242	231	1366	5785	1065	328	199	95%	5.6	18.4%	5.7%	12.7%	3.4%	4.71	4.15	+12.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	847	156	48	29	95%	5.6	18.4%	5.7%	12.7%	3.4%	4.71	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		177	166	948	3971	878	214	160	94%	5.4	22.1%	5.4%	16.7%	4.0%	4.33	4.13	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	838	185	45	34	94%	5.4	22.1%	5.4%	16.7%	4.0%	4.33	4.13	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Pfaadt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	20.9%	5.0%	3.6%	—	4.61	17.3%	11.7%	494	+0.30	—	—	—
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	66
Sonny Gray R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	22.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	3.28	26.4%	16.5%	362	-0.40	2.55	1,792	61
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	650	59
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	59
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.44	13.5%	5.0%	286	+2.14	3.27	965	59
Marcus Stroman R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	27	SP	3.77	17.1%	8.0%	2.0%	.324	3.43	21.0%	14.4%	363	-0.34	3.28	1,367	58
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,134	57
Jake Odorizzi R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	27	SP	5.39	21.0%	9.9%	5.1%	.225	3.63	24.7%	16.1%	337	-1.76	3.16	1,048	57
Kevin Gausman R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP	4.13	19.1%	6.3%	3.4%	.295	3.14	28.6%	22.3%	354	-0.99	2.34	1,930	56
Graham Ashcraft R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	17.8%	8.3%	3.4%	.285	3.51	20.6%	11.5%	172	-1.02	2.67	569	55
Julio Teheran R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP	4.60	22.4%	11.2%	3.6%	.211	4.75	20.3%	9.7%	206	+0.15	3.61	1,134	54
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	53
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	52
Kyle Hendricks R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	27	SP	3.85	21.6%	6.8%	3.1%	.279	3.49	20.2%	16.0%	457	-0.36	3.02	1,685	52
Michael Wacha R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	27	SP	4.19	20.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.247	4.89	21.0%	13.9%	285	+0.70	3.57	1,638	52
Jerad Eickhoff R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	20.5%	8.5%	2.6%	.321	5.64	18.5%	9.8%	94	+1.77	3.87	875	50
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	50
Chris Archer R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	27.4%	7.9%	3.6%	.294	3.82	27.5%	19.6%	469	+0.04	2.85	1,018	50
Mike Clevinger R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	25.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.278	2.73	31.6%	23.9%	168	-0.69	2.28	1,236	50
Logan Gilbert R 2023 · 3.72 FIP	26	SP	3.72	24.5%	4.5%	3.9%	.271	3.40	28.6%	23.2%	512	-0.32	3.04	1,142	50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	158	17.4%	5.8%	1.39	4.68
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14