Brandon Pfaadt
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
+1.8
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.8 · 2026
ERA4.61
FIP4.26
xFIP4.66
SIERA4.59
K%21.2%
BB%5.3%
K-BB%15.9%
IP171
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p3093.1
Whiff%
p2822.2%
K%
p1014.4%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SL+1.3 (15%)
CT+1.1 (13%)
SI (21%)
CU (21%)
FB-0.6 (39%)
CH-2.2 (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 22 | 22 | 132 | 529 | 160 | 28 | 22 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.21 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Reno Aces | 29 | 29 | 167 | 689 | 218 | 33 | 28 | 26.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.83 | 4.05 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 31 | 30 | 157 | 676 | 163 | 42 | 33 | 22.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.94 | 4.68 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 32 | 182 | 760 | 185 | 41 | 24 | 24.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 3.46 | +3.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 177 | 767 | 147 | 35 | 26 | 19.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 4.01 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3 | 3 | 17 | 73 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 15.1% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 5.94 | 5.12 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 143 | 603 | 117 | 35 | 22 | 19.4% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 4.50 | 4.16 | +1.9 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 159 | 676 | 128 | 41 | 25 | 19.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.26 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 148 | 625 | 121 | 37 | 23 | 19.4% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.69 | 4.57 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 134 | 568 | 107 | 34 | 21 | 18.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 94 | 31 | 19 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 82 | 28 | 17 | 17.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 70 | 26 | 16 | 17.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 60 | 24 | 14 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 5.08 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 57 | 19 | 13 | 17.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.98 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 48 | 17 | 12 | 17.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.05 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 16.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.18 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 150 | 149 | 830 | 3494 | 802 | 192 | 144 | 23.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.48 | 4.11 | +11.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 842 | 193 | 46 | 35 | 23.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.48 | 4.11 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Pfaadt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 21.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | — | 4.64 | 18.9% | 12.9% | 404 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 3.36 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.94 | 533 | 47 |
| Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.71 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .280 | 4.16 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 519 | +0.45 | 3.61 | 1,689 | 46 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.97 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.21 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 199 | -0.76 | 2.39 | 556 | 46 |
| Nick Martinez R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.16 | 13.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 984 | 46 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.62 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.17 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 238 | -1.45 | 1.32 | 650 | 46 |
| Collin McHugh R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.30 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.41 | 24.3% | 17.3% | 335 | +0.11 | 1.78 | 806 | 46 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.37 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.9% | .289 | 3.76 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.61 | 3.61 | 1,008 | 45 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.07 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .296 | 4.40 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.33 | 3.30 | 1,146 | 45 |
| Lance Lynn R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.34 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .313 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 343 | +0.82 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 45 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.41 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .307 | 3.88 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 265 | +0.47 | 2.98 | 598 | 45 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.12 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 233 | -0.24 | 3.93 | 368 | 44 |
| Sam Gaviglio R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.49 | 16.1% | 6.1% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.29 | 20.9% | 14.8% | 248 | -0.20 | 3.67 | 754 | 44 |
| Cory Riordan R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 154 | 44 |
| Javier Solano R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.54 | 12.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | .289 | 5.17 | 14.7% | 10.1% | 130 | +0.63 | 3.67 | 506 | 44 |
| Zach Petrick R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.38 | 14.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 157 | 44 |
| Greg Peavey R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.37 | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 147 | 44 |
| Thad Weber R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.64 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .293 | 4.59 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.05 | 4.36 | 363 | 44 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.27 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .287 | 4.12 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 622 | 43 |
| Brandon Sinnery R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.75 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 154 | 43 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.14 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.94 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.80 | 4.04 | 489 | 43 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
NTCDEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $3M | +1.8 | $14M | +$11M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $5M | +1.2 | $10M | +$4M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$0.1M |
| 2029 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +0.8 | $3M | -$8M |
| 2030 | Ext / FA-deal | $15M | +0.6 | $3M | -$13M |
| 2031 | Ext / FA-deal | $21M | +0.4 | $2M | -$19M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $25M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$25M |
| Totals | $90M | $41M | -$49M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$49M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$49M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.