Brandon Pfaadt

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MLBARI	32	32	182	4.71	3.46	24.3%	5.4%	4.3
2025	26	MLBARI	33	33	177	5.25	3.94	19.2%	4.6%	3.1
2026	27	MIX2 levels	32	22	146	3.64	3.73	16.9%	5.5%	2.9	K 16.7% · BB 5.5% · FIP 3.83
2027PROJ	28	MLBARI	18	18	109	4.38	4.27	18.6%	5.3%	1.4
2028PROJ	29	MLBARI	16	16	93	4.31	4.33	18.0%	5.5%	1.1
2029PROJ	30	MLBARI	13	13	76	4.45	4.54	17.3%	5.8%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 10.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service3.500First FA2030Options2

2027Ext$9M2028Ext$9M2029Ext$9M2030Ext$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs57

FB Velo32

K%12

Form4.65 ERA (proj 4.38) · K 16.8% (proj 18.6%) · BB 4.6% (proj 5.3%) · last 60d · 31 IP through Oct 27

CompsBud Norris (age 28) · Lance Lynn (age 28) · Kyle Gibson (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA4.38

FIP4.27

K%18.6%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%13.3%

Proj IP109

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$7M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.500 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$9M	+1.4	$11M	+$2M
2028	Ext	$9M	+1.1	$8M	+$0.1M
2029	Ext	$9M	+0.7	$2M	-$5M
2030	Ext	$9M	+0.4	$1M	-$5M
Totals		$36M		$23M	-$8M

Options · projected decision
2031	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	MUTUAL OPT	$25.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	132	529	160	28	22	100%	6.0	23.2%	6.1%	17.2%	4.7%	3.21	4.48	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	132	529	160	28	22	100%	6.0	30.2%	5.3%	25.0%	4.2%	3.21	3.48	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	167	689	218	33	28	100%	5.8	26.4%	5.2%	21.2%	4.5%	3.83	4.00	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	167	689	218	33	28	100%	5.8	31.6%	4.8%	26.9%	4.1%	3.83	3.26	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	157	676	163	42	33	97%	5.1	22.7%	6.0%	16.7%	5.2%	4.94	4.80	+1.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	157	676	163	42	33	97%	5.1	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	4.9%	4.94	4.56	+1.5
2024	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	182	760	185	41	24	100%	5.7	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.3%	4.71	3.56	+4.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	182	760	185	41	24	100%	5.7	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.3%	4.71	3.56	+4.1
2024	25	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	182	760	185	41	24	100%	5.7	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.2%	4.71	3.46	+4.3
2025	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	177	767	147	35	26	100%	5.4	19.2%	4.6%	14.6%	3.6%	5.25	4.03	+2.9
2025	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	177	767	147	35	26	100%	5.4	19.2%	4.6%	14.6%	3.6%	5.25	4.03	+2.9
2025	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	177	767	147	35	26	100%	5.4	19.2%	4.6%	14.6%	3.4%	5.25	3.94	+3.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	22	146	599	101	33	15	69%	4.6	16.7%	5.5%	11.2%	2.6%	3.64	3.83	+2.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	22	146	599	101	33	15	69%	4.6	16.7%	5.5%	11.2%	2.6%	3.64	3.83	+2.7
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	22	146	599	101	33	15	69%	4.6	16.9%	5.5%	11.4%	2.5%	3.64	3.73	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			113	102	590	2510	520	133	86	90%	5.2	20.7%	5.3%	15.4%	3.4%	4.82	3.91	+10.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	ARI	18	18	109	460	85	24	14	100%	6.1	18.6%	5.3%	13.3%	3.1%	4.38	4.27	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	93	392	70	22	13	100%	6.2	18.0%	5.5%	12.5%	3.2%	4.41	4.43	+1.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	76	322	56	19	11	100%	5.9	17.3%	5.8%	11.5%	3.4%	4.55	4.64	+0.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	61	256	42	16	9	100%	6.1	16.5%	6.1%	10.4%	3.7%	4.74	4.87	+0.4
2031	32	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	45	191	30	12	7	100%	5.7	15.7%	6.5%	9.2%	3.9%	4.97	5.13	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	93	393	71	22	12	100%	5.8	18.0%	5.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.31	4.33	+1.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	76	321	55	19	10	100%	5.8	17.3%	5.8%	11.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.54	+0.7
2030	31	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	61	258	43	16	9	100%	6.1	16.5%	6.1%	10.4%	3.5%	4.63	4.76	+0.4
2031	32	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	45	190	30	12	7	100%	5.6	15.7%	6.5%	9.2%	3.7%	4.85	5.01	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		159	148	865	3670	718	201	124	93%	5.4	19.6%	5.5%	14.1%	3.4%	4.72	4.00	+14.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	34	200	848	166	46	29	93%	5.4	19.6%	5.5%	14.1%	3.4%	4.72	4.00	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		179	168	960	4020	890	217	160	94%	5.4	22.1%	5.4%	16.7%	4.0%	4.32	4.10	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	838	186	45	33	94%	5.4	22.1%	5.4%	16.7%	4.0%	4.32	4.10	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 10 IPFIP 3.67 → 3.97 (+0.30)K% 18.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.92%	—	×0.860	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.41%	—	×0.900	4.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 61 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.42 (+0.45)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.860	23.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.27%	—	×0.900	5.65%
HR / BF /BF	4.31%	÷1.012	×1.100	4.69%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 105 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.05 (+0.80)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.21%	—	×0.810	26.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.25%	—	×1.100	4.68%
HR / BF /BF	4.25%	÷1.094	×1.200	4.66%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 62 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.92 (+0.63)K% 30.6% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.58%	—	×0.880	26.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.79%	—	×1.050	6.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.72%	÷0.965	×1.100	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hillsboro Hops · 58 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.63 (+1.04)K% 29.5% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.52%	—	×0.770	22.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.17%	—	×1.150	7.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷0.972	×1.250	2.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 40 IPFIP 2.36 → 3.94 (+1.58)K% 35.6% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.62%	—	×0.740	26.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.38%	—	×1.180	5.16%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.923	×1.300	4.40%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.36 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 33 IPFIP 6.22 → 6.43 (+0.21)K% 25.4% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.35%	—	×0.810	20.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.93%	—	×1.100	5.42%
HR / BF /BF	8.45%	÷1.271	×1.200	7.98%

Result: FIP 6.22 → 6.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Pfaadt (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.62	17.4%	11.6%	230	+0.35	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	63
Lance Lynn R 2015 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	22.2%	8.4%	1.9%	.313	4.15	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.84	2.85	2,006	63
Kyle Gibson R 2016 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP	4.44	15.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.325	4.12	21.0%	12.3%	532	-0.32	3.56	1,920	62
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	62
Dave Bush R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	14.3%	5.9%	3.8%	.231	4.65	15.1%	8.1%	326	-0.08	3.65	1,141	61
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	61
Marcus Stroman R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	28	SP	3.58	20.5%	7.4%	2.3%	.306	3.48	21.3%	15.3%	318	-0.10	2.70	1,497	61
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	60
Josh Fogg R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	28	SP-	4.85	11.5%	5.7%	3.6%	.287	4.77	12.4%	5.7%	416	-0.08	0.87	1,159	60
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	60
Brian Lawrence R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	28	SP	4.26	13.9%	5.5%	3.0%	.296	4.02	12.8%	6.6%	225	-0.24	3.33	963	60
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	60
Walker Buehler R 2022 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	21.2%	6.2%	2.8%	.309	4.97	17.6%	7.8%	234	+1.33	2.67	1,118	60
Jason Johnson R 2002 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.3%	7.0%	3.4%	.300	4.27	12.9%	6.3%	596	-0.11	4.12	1,351	60
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	60
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	59
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	59
Joe Blanton R 2009 · 4.26 FIP	28	SP	4.26	19.5%	6.6%	3.6%	.285	3.83	19.1%	14.9%	408	-0.43	3.01	1,799	58
Brian Bannister R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	14.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.287	5.42	13.3%	4.7%	128	+1.45	3.97	667	58
Sonny Gray R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	28	SP-	3.79	21.1%	9.8%	2.2%	.320	3.21	28.5%	19.1%	367	-0.58	2.55	2,087	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	108	19.4%	5.6%	1.32	4.71
Phil Hughes ('18)	6.5	108	18.9%	5.7%	1.33	4.52
Lee Stange ('61-'70, 9 WAR*)	6.1	135	17.8%*	6.6%*	1.36*	4.14*
Willie Blair ('90-'01, 1 WAR*)	6.4	106	16.4%*	7.2%*	1.32*	4.86*
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Luke Hochevar ('16)	4.6	116	17.7%	7.5%	1.12	4.98