Brandon Pfaadt — OGILVIE

Brandon Pfaadt P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 119 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114104vR 95

ERA4.31

FIP4.09

K%19.3%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP119

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 183 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p2822.2%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

SL+1.3 (13%)

CT+1.1 (13%)

SI (19%)

CU (19%)

FB-0.6 (43%)

CH-2.2 (12%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$4M	+1.0	$8M	+$4M
2027	Ext	$9M	+1.7	$13M	+$5M
2028	Ext	$9M	+1.3	$9M	+$2M
2029	Ext	$9M	+0.9	$3M	-$4M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$31M		$32M	+$7M

Options · projected decision
2031	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	MUTUAL OPT	$25.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	MIX	3 levels	22	22	132	529	160	28	22	100%	6.0	23.2%	6.1%	17.2%	4.5%	3.21	4.36	—
2021	22	MIX	3 levels	22	22	132	529	160	28	22	100%	6.0	30.2%	5.3%	25.0%	4.2%	3.21	3.48	—
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	29	29	167	689	218	33	28	100%	5.8	26.4%	5.2%	21.2%	4.3%	3.83	3.90	—
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	29	29	167	689	218	33	28	100%	5.8	31.6%	4.8%	26.9%	4.1%	3.83	3.26	—
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	31	30	157	676	163	42	33	97%	5.1	22.9%	6.3%	16.6%	4.9%	4.94	4.64	+1.4
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	31	30	157	676	163	42	33	97%	5.1	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	4.9%	4.94	4.56	+1.5
2024	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	182	760	185	41	24	100%	5.7	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.0%	4.71	3.39	+4.3
2024	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	182	760	185	41	24	100%	5.7	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.2%	4.71	3.46	+4.1
2025	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	177	767	147	35	26	100%	5.4	19.2%	4.6%	14.6%	3.2%	5.25	3.84	+3.2
2025	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	177	767	147	35	26	100%	5.4	19.2%	4.6%	14.6%	3.4%	5.25	3.94	+3.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	19	9	64	268	48	20	9	47%	3.4	17.7%	7.8%	10.0%	3.5%	4.24	4.49	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB	ARI	114	0	119	504	97	31	17	0%	1.0	19.3%	6.1%	13.1%	3.4%	4.31	4.09	+1.8
ROS	27	MLB	ARI	113	0	119	502	97	31	17	0%	1.1	19.3%	6.1%	13.1%	3.4%	4.35	4.13	+1.8
2026 TOT	27	MLB	ARI	—	—	183	772	145	51	26	—	—	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	3.4%	4.29	4.23	+2.5
2026 FULL	27	MLB	ARI	—	—	173	731	145	51	26	—	—	19.9%	7.0%	12.9%	3.6%	4.56	4.28	+2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	ARI	29	29	173	731	142	46	25	100%	6.0	19.4%	6.3%	13.2%	3.5%	4.59	4.53	+1.8
2028	29	MLB	ARI	28	28	165	698	132	45	25	100%	5.9	18.9%	6.5%	12.3%	3.6%	4.65	4.69	+1.4
2029	30	MLB	ARI	26	26	155	656	119	45	25	100%	6.0	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	3.8%	4.80	4.90	+0.9
2027	28	MLB	ARI	29	29	173	730	142	46	26	100%	6.0	19.4%	6.3%	13.2%	3.5%	4.63	4.57	+1.7
2028	29	MLB	ARI	28	28	165	697	131	45	26	100%	5.9	18.9%	6.5%	12.3%	3.7%	4.69	4.73	+1.3
2029	30	MLB	ARI	26	26	155	654	119	45	25	100%	6.0	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	3.9%	4.85	4.95	+0.8
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			296	171	1121	4768	957	287	174	58%	3.8	20.1%	6.0%	14.0%	3.7%	4.85	4.18	+16.1
/ 200 IP	—			53	31	200	851	171	51	31	58%	3.8	20.1%	6.0%	14.0%	3.7%	4.85	4.18	+2.9
Career	—			166	155	877	3689	839	207	144	93%	5.3	22.7%	5.6%	17.1%	3.9%	4.43	4.03	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—			38	35	200	841	191	47	33	93%	5.3	22.7%	5.6%	17.1%	3.9%	4.43	4.03	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Pfaadt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	21.0%	5.1%	3.3%	—	4.70	18.8%	12.3%	494	+0.53	—	—	—
Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	28	SP-	3.89	20.9%	8.7%	2.7%	.302	3.31	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.58	2.88	533	48
Lance Lynn R 2027 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	22.2%	8.4%	1.7%	.313	4.07	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.83	2.87	1,390	47
Merrill Kelly R 2029 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	20.3%	6.8%	3.6%	.289	3.67	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.54	3.54	1,102	46
Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	27	SP	3.39	17.8%	6.9%	1.7%	.307	3.91	19.9%	12.6%	265	+0.52	2.71	598	46
Alec Marsh R 2025 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP	3.91	23.5%	7.2%	3.4%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	424	46
Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	19.0%	8.4%	2.4%	.309	3.19	24.6%	14.1%	199	-0.68	2.48	556	45
Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	27	SP	3.71	17.7%	7.2%	2.2%	.280	4.25	19.0%	10.3%	519	+0.54	3.60	1,689	45
Collin McHugh R 2027 · 3.32 FIP	28	SP	3.32	19.9%	5.9%	2.1%	.304	3.35	24.3%	17.3%	335	+0.03	1.79	806	45
Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	27	SP	4.72	17.3%	10.4%	3.2%	.289	3.26	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.46	1.32	650	44
Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	23.3%	8.9%	3.2%	.281	4.09	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.06	3.92	287	44
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	27	SP	3.86	17.3%	5.9%	2.7%	.296	4.60	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.74	3.42	1,146	44
Sam Gaviglio R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	16.1%	6.1%	3.8%	.282	4.35	20.9%	14.8%	248	-0.22	3.73	754	43
Ian Kennedy R 2029 · 4.46 FIP	30	SP	4.46	24.4%	6.7%	4.7%	.293	4.91	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.45	2.87	864	43
Nick Martinez R 2025 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	1,073	43
Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	28	SP	3.77	20.5%	8.0%	2.5%	.326	4.61	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.84	3.77	786	43
Seth Lugo R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	27	SP	3.65	19.9%	5.4%	2.8%	.328	2.85	28.8%	23.7%	218	-0.80	2.19	1,320	43
Alec Mills R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP-	4.20	21.1%	6.9%	3.6%	.313	4.64	17.0%	10.8%	223	+0.44	2.65	785	43
Jeremy Hellickson R 2027 · 4.11 FIP	28	SP	4.11	19.0%	6.3%	3.3%	.285	4.39	17.2%	11.3%	444	+0.28	3.80	646	43
Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	20.2%	6.3%	2.7%	.306	5.21	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.53	3.68	244	43
Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	27	SP-	4.44	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.90	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.46	4.44	200	42

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4	167	19.4%	6.1%	1.37	4.60
Jason Hammel ('18)	4	161	19.8%	6.5%	1.28	4.65
Jeff Samardzija ('19)	5	170	20.0%	5.9%	1.24	4.31
Ricky Nolasco ('17)	3	139	18.1%	6.5%	1.38	4.85
Iván Nova ('19)	5	158	16.3%	5.3%	1.38	4.40
Rick Porcello ('20)	6	171	20.8%	5.2%	1.31	4.50
Jeremy Hellickson ('19)	5	126	17.5%	6.6%	1.44	4.49