Daniel Guilarte
SS Wisconsin Timber Rattlers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A/INTL2 orgs | 511 | .242/.351/.320 | 3 | 40 | 57 | — | .201/.282/.266 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+MIL | 345 | .157/.251/.193 | 1 | 15 | -7 | — | .117/.192/.146 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA/AA/A+/ROKMIL | 232 | .184/.287/.284 | 3 | 15 | 26 | — | .158/.235/.249 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBMIL | 1 | .156/.230/.213 | 0 | 0 | 28 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBMIL | 78 | .164/.239/.236 | 1 | 2 | 37 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 144 | 124 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 306 | 403 | 371 | 774 | 65 | 409 | 22 | 13 | 357 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 265 | 223 | 60 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 66 | 5 | 26 | 8 | 269 | 380 | 314 | 694 | 45 | 377 | 25 | 13 | 325 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 22 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 450 | 500 | 450 | 950 | 500 | 9 | 5 | 435 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 468 | 400 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 63 | 115 | 2 | 40 | 12 | 245 | 351 | 328 | 678 | 83 | 333 | 25 | 13 | 313 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | INTL | Caribes de Anzoategui | — | 43 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 206 | 357 | 235 | 592 | 29 | 292 | 26 | 19 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 300 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 120 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 157 | 251 | 193 | 445 | 37 | 249 | 35 | 10 | 212 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 28 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 321 | 240 | 561 | 429 | 39 | 11 | 269 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 57 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 286 | 367 | 653 | 184 | 189 | 18 | 12 | 289 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 126 | 109 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 44 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 183 | 288 | 275 | 563 | 92 | 292 | 35 | 12 | 262 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 111 | 238 | 167 | 405 | 56 | 167 | 29 | 14 | 204 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 144 | 131 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 44 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 229 | 299 | 275 | 573 | 46 | 337 | 31 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 265 | 234 | 53 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 91 | 5 | 26 | 8 | 226 | 312 | 265 | 577 | 38 | 355 | 34 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 22 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 350 | 409 | 350 | 759 | 412 | 14 | 5 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 468 | 418 | 84 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 154 | 2 | 40 | 12 | 201 | 282 | 266 | 547 | 65 | 306 | 33 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 309 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 161 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 117 | 192 | 146 | 338 | 29 | 219 | 47 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 28 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 250 | 192 | 442 | 419 | 46 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 57 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 250 | 353 | 603 | 176 | 184 | 21 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 126 | 113 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 56 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 150 | 232 | 230 | 462 | 80 | 267 | 44 | 9 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 21 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 190 | 158 | 348 | 53 | 124 | 43 | 10 | 124 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 144 | 131 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 44 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 229 | 299 | 275 | 573 | 46 | 345 | 31 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 144 | 124 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 306 | 403 | 371 | 774 | 65 | 409 | 22 | 13 | 357 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 287 | 254 | 60 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 94 | 6 | 31 | 8 | 236 | 319 | 272 | 591 | 35 | 370 | 33 | 9 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 287 | 243 | 69 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 68 | 6 | 31 | 8 | 284 | 389 | 325 | 715 | 41 | 390 | 24 | 13 | 333 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 511 | 456 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 169 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 202 | 282 | 265 | 547 | 64 | 311 | 33 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 511 | 434 | 105 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 71 | 126 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 242 | 351 | 320 | 671 | 78 | 330 | 25 | 14 | 311 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 309 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 161 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 117 | 192 | 146 | 338 | 29 | 229 | 47 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 300 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 120 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 157 | 251 | 193 | 445 | 37 | 249 | 35 | 10 | 212 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 232 | 210 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 90 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 152 | 226 | 229 | 455 | 76 | 252 | 39 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 232 | 201 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 71 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 184 | 287 | 284 | 571 | 100 | 266 | 31 | 12 | 264 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 144 | 130 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 44 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 231 | 299 | 277 | 576 | 46 | 337 | 31 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 287 | 254 | 60 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 94 | 6 | 31 | 8 | 236 | 319 | 272 | 591 | 35 | 359 | 33 | 9 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 511 | 455 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 169 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 202 | 282 | 266 | 548 | 64 | 306 | 33 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 313 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 161 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 115 | 192 | 144 | 336 | 29 | 219 | 47 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 232 | 210 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 90 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 152 | 226 | 229 | 455 | 76 | 252 | 39 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 511 | 455 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 169 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 202 | 282 | 266 | 548 | 64 | 306 | 33 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 313 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 161 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 115 | 192 | 144 | 336 | 29 | 219 | 47 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 232 | 210 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 90 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 152 | 226 | 229 | 455 | 76 | 252 | 39 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIL | 0% | 342 | 309 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 126 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 158 | 232 | 216 | 448 | 58 | 255 | 37 | 8 | 210 | 28 | -29 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 230 | 213 | 443 | 57 | 251 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 28 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIL | 30% | 258 | 233 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 93 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 166 | 240 | 239 | 479 | 73 | 259 | 36 | 9 | 223 | 37 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIL | 30% | 78 | 71 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 164 | 239 | 236 | 475 | 72 | 255 | 36 | 9 | 221 | 37 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 78 | 71 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 244 | 239 | 483 | 70 | 262 | 36 | 9 | 221 | 38 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 100 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 58 | 233 | 0 | 17 | 8 | 169 | 243 | 238 | 481 | 69 | 262 | 36 | 9 | 221 | 38 | -49 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1965 | 1763 | 315 | 46 | 12 | 9 | 169 | 720 | 14 | 123 | 43 | 179 | 256 | 234 | 490 | 55 | 292 | 37 | 9 | 224 | 38 | -35 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | -2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 104 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 56 | 238 | 5 | 41 | 14 | 178 | 256 | 233 | 489 | 55 | 291 | 37 | 9 | 224 | 38 | -52 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -3.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 126 PAwOBA .258 → .201 (−57)K% 34.9% → 44.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.92% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 44.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 20.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 3.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 2.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.23% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .258 → .201; ISO .092 → .069; BABIP .292 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 57 PAwOBA .282 → .245 (−36)K% 17.5% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.54% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 12.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 2.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 2.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.21% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .282 → .245; ISO .184 → .163; BABIP .189 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAANashville Sounds · 28 PAwOBA .263 → .220 (−43)K% 39.3% → 47.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 41.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .263 → .220; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .429 → .419. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Brewers · 21 PAwOBA .200 → .124 (−75)K% 28.6% → 41.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 41.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 8.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 6.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 5.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .200 → .124; ISO .056 → .034; BABIP .167 → .124. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 345 PAwOBA .211 → .158 (−53)K% 34.8% → 46.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.78% | ÷0.943 | ×1.270 | — | — | 46.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.43% | ÷0.965 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 19.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.013 | ×0.810 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 2.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.246 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.36% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .211 → .158; ISO .037 → .025; BABIP .249 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 468 PAwOBA .308 → .249 (−58)K% 24.6% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.57% | ÷1.013 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.46% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.96% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 23.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.32% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.101 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 113, 2B 92, 3B 101, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .308 → .249; ISO .083 → .068; BABIP .333 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 265 PAwOBA .320 → .262 (−58)K% 24.9% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.91% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.21% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.12% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 31.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.82% | ÷1.090 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 3.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .320 → .262; ISO .045 → .039; BABIP .377 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Brewers · 22 PAwOBA .424 → .334 (−90)K% 9.1% → 13.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.969 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.998 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 2.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 50.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 41.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.923 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 90, 3B 85, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .424 → .334; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .500 → .412. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .