Karson Simas

2B Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 175 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AAA/AA/A+BOS	178	.199/.286/.282	2	9	25	—	.161/.234/.230
2025	24	AAA/AABOS	311	.241/.310/.330	4	16	48	—	.214/.264/.283
2026	25	AACHC	467	.219/.301/.310	5	46	41	—	.189/.252/.263
2027PROJMLE	26	MLBCHC	3	.208/.265/.286	0	0	54	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	27	MLBCHC	60	.209/.267/.290	1	3	56	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed97

Z-Con%70

Whiff%43

BB%33

K%29

wRC+23

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsLuis Aviles Jr. (age 26) · Will Holland (age 26) · Stephen Wrenn (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .265 / .286

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP307

ISO70

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	44	38	8	0	0	0	4	8	2	0	0	211	318	211	529		267	18	9	261	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	98	87	27	6	2	1	8	22	2	4	0	310	381	460	841	149	406	22	8	371	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Salem Red Sox	—	308	279	55	10	4	1	25	107	3	15	1	197	270	272	543	75	314	35	8	251	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Greenville Drive	—	174	153	29	3	0	1	18	54	2	6	2	190	283	229	512	39	283	31	10	245	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Salem Red Sox	—	120	101	24	2	3	0	13	28	4	8	4	238	347	317	664	79	320	23	11	305	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	45	41	11	0	0	1	2	13	1	2	0	268	318	341	660	73	357	29	4	295	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	53	46	7	3	0	0	1	15	5	5	2	152	250	217	467	65	226	28	2	223	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Greenville Drive	—	80	69	13	4	0	1	9	21	1	2	0	188	291	290	581	101	250	26	11	268	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	69	61	20	3	0	1	8	19	0	4	1	328	406	426	832	98	463	28	12	377	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	242	221	48	8	1	3	18	64	2	12	2	217	282	303	585	86	292	26	7	268	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	467	416	91	13	5	5	41	132	8	46	6	219	301	310	611	91	307	28	9	281	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	44	39	6	0	0	0	3	12	2	0	0	154	250	154	404		224	27	7	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	98	90	21	4	1	1	5	32	2	4	0	233	289	333	622	100	338	33	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	308	286	38	7	3	1	18	156	3	15	1	133	192	189	381	56	279	51	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	174	160	22	2	0	1	11	72	2	6	2	138	202	169	371	31	239	41	6	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	120	105	21	2	3	0	9	39	4	8	4	200	288	276	564	76	276	32	8	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	45	42	10	0	0	1	1	16	1	2	0	238	273	310	582	71	333	36	2	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	53	46	6	2	0	0	1	18	5	5	2	130	231	174	405	43	201	34	2	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	80	72	10	3	0	1	6	29	1	2	0	139	215	222	437	83	202	36	8	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	69	63	18	3	0	1	6	22	0	4	1	286	348	381	729	95	420	32	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	242	227	44	6	1	2	12	80	2	12	2	194	241	256	496	62	287	33	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	467	429	81	12	4	4	28	161	8	46	6	189	252	263	515	75	288	34	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	44	39	6	0	0	0	3	12	2	0	0	154	250	154	404		222	27	7	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	—	44	38	8	0	0	0	4	8	2	0	0	211	318	211	529		267	18	9	261	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	98	90	21	4	1	1	5	32	2	4	0	233	289	333	622	100	351	33	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	98	87	27	6	2	1	8	22	2	4	0	310	381	460	841	149	406	22	8	371	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	308	286	38	7	3	1	18	156	3	15	1	133	192	189	381	56	285	51	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	—	308	279	55	10	4	1	25	107	3	15	1	197	270	272	543	75	314	35	8	251	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	294	266	43	4	3	1	19	111	6	14	6	162	234	211	444	49	268	38	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	294	254	53	5	3	1	31	82	6	14	6	209	309	264	573	55	299	28	11	269	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	178	160	25	5	0	1	8	62	7	9	2	156	229	206	435	50	242	35	4	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	178	156	31	7	0	2	12	49	7	9	2	199	286	282	568	83	271	28	7	262	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	311	290	63	9	1	3	18	102	2	16	3	217	268	286	554	69	324	33	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	311	282	68	11	1	4	26	83	2	16	3	241	310	330	639	89	328	27	8	292	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	467	429	81	12	4	4	28	161	8	46	6	189	252	263	515	75	291	34	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	—	467	416	91	13	5	5	41	132	8	46	6	219	301	310	611	91	307	28	9	281	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	44	39	6	0	0	0	3	12	2	0	0	154	250	154	404		224	27	7	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	98	91	21	4	1	1	5	32	2	4	0	231	289	330	618	99	338	33	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	308	284	38	7	3	1	18	156	3	15	1	134	192	190	382	56	279	51	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	294	267	43	4	3	1	19	111	6	14	6	161	234	210	443	49	254	38	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	178	161	25	5	0	1	8	62	7	9	2	155	229	205	434	50	235	35	4	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	311	288	63	9	1	3	18	102	2	16	3	219	268	288	556	69	317	33	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	467	428	81	12	4	4	28	161	8	46	6	189	252	264	516	75	288	34	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	178	161	25	5	0	1	8	62	7	9	2	155	229	205	434	50	235	35	4	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	311	288	63	9	1	3	18	102	2	16	3	219	268	288	556	69	317	33	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	467	428	81	12	4	4	28	161	8	46	6	189	252	264	516	75	288	34	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	2%	380	350	72	12	2	3	22	122	5	20	3	206	263	282	545	76	303	32	6	249	54	-21	+3	+0	+1	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	208	265	286	552	78	307	33	0	251	54	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	27%	225	207	42	7	1	2	13	72	3	12	2	207	265	286	551	78	302	32	6	251	56	-12	+2	+0	+1	+5	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	27%	60	55	12	2	0	1	4	19	1	3	0	209	267	290	557	80	305	32	7	253	56	-3	+1	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	60	55	12	2	0	1	4	19	1	3	0	218	283	309	592	91	314	32	7	253	35	-3	+1	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	131	22	0	11	43	206	11	32	0	220	285	312	597	92	317	32	7	253	35	-34	+6	+0	+2	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2080	1910	348	53	14	14	121	758	35	124	21	182	244	247	491	64	291	36	6	220	35	-20	+3	+0	+1	+8	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	108	17	4	4	38	237	11	39	7	181	243	243	486	62	290	36	6	220	35	-35	+5	+0	+2	+14	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 467 PAwOBA .275 → .229 (−45)K% 28.3% → 34.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.27%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	34.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.78%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.998	5.96%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	1.44%
Singles /BIP	23.94%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.028	×0.998	22.59%
Doubles /BIP	4.58%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.028	×0.998	4.27%
Triples /BIP	1.76%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.028	×0.998	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	1.76%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	1.41%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .275 → .229; ISO .091 → .076; BABIP .307 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 242 PAwOBA .261 → .220 (−40)K% 26.4% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.45%	÷0.978	×1.220	—	—	32.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.44%	÷1.055	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.00%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.71%
Singles /BIP	22.93%	÷0.962	×0.970	×1.014	×1.012	23.73%
Doubles /BIP	5.10%	÷1.109	×0.860	×1.014	×1.012	4.05%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷1.141	×0.950	×1.014	×1.012	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	1.91%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×1.012	1.35%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .261 → .220; ISO .086 → .062; BABIP .292 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 69 PAwOBA .367 → .306 (−62)K% 27.5% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.54%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	32.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.59%	÷1.042	×0.690	—	×1.048	8.04%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	38.10%	÷1.060	×0.930	—	×1.048	35.01%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.991	×0.830	—	×1.048	6.27%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.048	1.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .367 → .306; ISO .098 → .078; BABIP .463 → .420. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 80 PAwOBA .265 → .192 (−74)K% 26.2% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.25%	÷0.960	×1.310	—	—	35.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.25%	÷0.924	×0.600	—	×0.998	7.29%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	0.96%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.013	×0.870	×0.986	×0.998	14.09%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.037	×0.780	×0.986	×0.998	6.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.927	×0.850	×0.986	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.08%	÷1.043	×0.880	—	×0.998	1.75%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .265 → .192; ISO .101 → .074; BABIP .250 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 53 PAwOBA .218 → .185 (−33)K% 28.3% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.30%	÷1.033	×1.220	—	—	33.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.89%	÷1.025	×0.700	—	×1.027	1.32%
HBP% /PA	9.43%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	8.24%
Singles /BIP	12.90%	÷1.004	×0.970	—	×1.027	12.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.68%	÷1.165	×0.860	—	×1.027	7.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .218 → .185; ISO .065 → .048; BABIP .226 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 45 PAwOBA .293 → .253 (−40)K% 28.9% → 34.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.89%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	34.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.44%	÷1.049	×0.690	—	×1.050	3.07%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.19%
Singles /BIP	35.71%	÷1.036	×0.930	—	×1.050	33.66%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.951	×0.830	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.143	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.050	2.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .293 → .253; ISO .073 → .052; BABIP .357 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 174 PAwOBA .240 → .173 (−68)K% 31.0% → 41.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.03%	÷0.981	×1.310	—	—	41.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.34%	÷1.028	×0.600	—	×1.012	6.11%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	0.90%
Singles /BIP	25.25%	÷1.053	×0.870	×1.020	×1.012	21.55%
Doubles /BIP	3.03%	÷1.033	×0.780	×1.020	×1.012	2.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.850	×1.020	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.01%	÷0.931	×0.880	—	×1.012	0.97%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .240 → .173; ISO .039 → .031; BABIP .283 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 120 PAwOBA .303 → .236 (−67)K% 23.3% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.33%	÷0.982	×1.360	—	—	32.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.83%	÷1.052	×0.690	—	—	7.11%
HBP% /PA	3.33%	—	×0.780	—	—	2.60%
Singles /BIP	26.03%	÷1.023	×0.920	×0.962	—	22.52%
Doubles /BIP	2.74%	÷0.942	×0.830	×0.962	—	2.32%
Triples /BIP	4.11%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.962	—	3.60%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.999	×0.800	—	—	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .303 → .236; ISO .079 → .066; BABIP .320 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Karson Simas (OGILVIE)	26	35	35	55	35	205/261/280	75	303	1	8	32%	6%	54	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2021 · AA	26	45→43	38→50	54→55	38	211/260/289	78	315	5	26	33%	6%	55	-1.9	205/246/340	135	278	14	19	31%	5%	63	-1.4	194/235/330	137	258	15	22	31%	4%	54	-1.2
✕Will Holland 2024 · AA	26	37→36	41→45	58→60	42	179/259/279	100	282	9	29	37%	9%	54	-2.0	198/279/310	112	288	11	26	33%	8%	69	-0.9	184/276/301	117	260	13	30	32%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Stephen Wrenn 2021 · AA	26	42→43	42→45	58→60	40	205/267/317	112	292	9	25	32%	6%	65	-1.2	211/271/323	112	320	11	22	35%	6%	68	-1.0	194/255/296	102	301	10	29	37%	5%	54	-1.2
✕Simon Whiteman 2023 · AA	26	40→45	36→30	58→55	44	183/267/248	65	298	4	26	36%	9%	51	-2.3	199/268/277	78	288	6	19	30%	8%	57	-1.8	189/255/254	65	258	4	20	26%	8%	44	-1.1
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2021 · AA	26	40→49	38→45	55→60	41	187/271/268	81	298	6	24	36%	8%	57	-1.8	203/278/306	103	286	9	23	30%	7%	68	-1.0	195/278/300	105	273	11	28	30%	7%	63	-0.9
✕Vance Vizcaino 2021 · AA	26	44	40	55	39	212/262/305	93	306	7	24	32%	6%	60	-1.6	219/277/323	104	314	10	15	31%	6%	70	-0.8	201/261/276	75	290	9	13	32%	6%	51	-0.6
✕Justin Dean 2023 · AAA	26	44→47	40→45	58→65	40	202/275/297	95	318	7	26	36%	7%	64	-1.3	208/284/297	89	321	8	39	34%	9%	68	-1.0	212/289/296	84	320	7	47	33%	9%	66	-0.8
✕Nick Dalesandro 2023 · AA	26	47	36→30	62→65	41	219/272/283	64	315	4	40	30%	6%	58	-1.7	209/266/281	72	302	5	29	30%	7%	56	-1.9	176/240/217	41	263	1	38	31%	7%	30	-1.4
✕Tanner Kirwer 2023 · AA	27	43	42→40	59→60	45	209/288/304	95	297	11	32	31%	8%	71	-0.8	207/275/301	94	292	9	27	30%	7%	65	-1.2	173/243/241	69	239	8	46	30%	7%	38	-1.1
✕Nick Heath 2019 · AA	25	48→39	36→40	59→65	40	219/274/286	67	340	4	34	35%	7%	59	-1.6	202/269/296	94	332	7	41	38%	8%	61	-1.5	184/255/285	101	305	8	50	39%	8%	51	-1.4
✕Casio Grider 2014 · A	26	44→39	37→40	56→55	39	204/264/283	79	298	3	23	31%	6%	56	-1.9	197/251/288	91	305	8	21	36%	6%	52	-2.2	159/207/246	87	251	9	28	39%	5%	23	-2.0
✕Joe Stewart 2024 · A	26	45	37→30	57→60	36	208/257/279	71	316	4	26	34%	5%	52	-2.2	208/266/283	75	312	5	22	33%	6%	56	-1.9	170/240/203	33	259	4	33	33%	7%	26	-0.9
✕D.J. Burt 2022 · AA	26	49→51	39→40	55→65	45	231/291/318	87	321	7	30	29%	8%	74	-0.6	230/296/317	87	303	6	37	24%	8%	76	-0.4	225/297/294	69	292	4	56	22%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Phillip Sikes 2024 · AA	25	38→37	44→45	58→55	39	190/260/306	116	291	11	27	37%	7%	60	-1.6	192/259/305	113	293	12	21	37%	6%	60	-1.6	176/247/286	110	265	13	20	37%	6%	49	-1.2
✕Aaron Whitefield 2022 · AA	25	44→48	38→40	56→60	39	209/262/287	78	312	6	29	33%	6%	55	-1.9	214/270/325	111	322	10	30	34%	7%	68	-1.0	198/256/320	122	300	11	40	36%	7%	60	-0.6
✕J.T. Arruda 2024 · AA	26	43→42	39→40	56→55	49	202/285/290	88	294	6	24	31%	10%	66	-1.1	209/274/299	90	290	7	20	28%	8%	63	-1.3	207/270/292	85	284	7	22	28%	7%	58	-1.0
✕Eric Reed 2007 · MLB	26	50→52	38→40	56→60	37	238/273/320	82	319	5	28	27%	4%	66	-1.1	227/266/306	79	298	4	28	24%	5%	61	-1.5	224/260/289	65	292	0	37	22%	4%	52	-0.9
✕Logan Warmoth 2022 · AAA	26	42→40	40	52→55	41	193/278/285	92	325	8	18	39%	9%	63	-1.4	198/276/297	99	295	9	21	33%	8%	64	-1.3	184/265/270	86	264	8	24	31%	8%	53	-1.2
✕Jackson Loftin 2024 · AAA	24	37→34	41→40	59→65	43	184/266/276	92	257	9	33	30%	8%	57	-1.8	184/252/281	97	272	9	26	34%	7%	52	-2.2	129/194/213	83	197	8	34	37%	6%	12	-2.0
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	195/258/316	120	275	10	24	32%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/348	126	302	12	17	29%	5%	76	-0.4	223/282/358	135	299	13	23	29%	5%	79	-0.1