Spencer Miles

P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANFG #583Pre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX2 levels	5	0	7	3.68	2.83	40.0%	10.0%	—	K 40.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 2.82
2024	24	ROKSF	5	3	7	4.91	1.19	31.2%	6.2%	—	K 31.2% · BB 6.2% · FIP 1.25
2026	26	MLBTOR	49	8	96	2.73	2.59	24.0%	6.2%	2.3
2027PROJ	27	MLBTOR	91	0	96	3.40	3.48	23.8%	7.0%	1.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBTOR	87	0	91	3.58	3.64	23.5%	7.3%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBTOR	83	0	87	3.76	3.85	22.8%	7.5%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.000First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Ext$4M2032Ext$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo71

K%60

Whiff%10

CompsRichard Rodríguez (age 27) · Heath Hembree (age 27) · Austin Ross (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9284vR 76

ERA3.40

FIP3.48

K%23.8%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%16.8%

Proj IP96

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL5550

CMD3040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.271

FB+3.0 (59%)

SI (45%)

CU (24%)

SL-0.8 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.8M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$22M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	30	12	3	1	0%	1.5	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	3.3%	3.68	2.82	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	7	30	12	3	1	0%	1.5	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	3.3%	3.68	2.83	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	5	3	7	32	10	2	0	60%	1.5	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.91	1.25	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	5	3	7	32	10	2	0	60%	1.5	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.91	1.25	—
2024	24	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	5	3	7	32	10	2	0	60%	1.5	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.91	1.19	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	49	8	96	388	93	24	5	16%	2.0	24.0%	6.2%	17.8%	1.3%	2.73	2.57	+2.3
2026	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	49	8	96	388	93	24	5	16%	2.0	24.0%	6.2%	17.8%	1.3%	2.73	2.57	+2.3
2026	26	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	49	8	96	388	93	24	5	16%	2.0	24.0%	6.2%	17.8%	1.3%	2.73	2.59	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			49	8	96	388	93	24	5	16%	2.0	24.0%	6.2%	17.8%	1.3%	2.73	2.59	+2.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TOR	91	0	96	405	97	29	8	0%	1.1	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	2.0%	3.40	3.48	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	91	0	96	404	95	29	9	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.3%	16.3%	2.2%	3.58	3.64	+1.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	87	0	91	386	88	29	9	0%	1.1	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	2.4%	3.76	3.85	+0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	82	0	86	363	80	28	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.7%	3.96	4.07	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	87	0	91	384	90	28	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.3%	16.3%	2.2%	3.58	3.64	+1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	83	0	87	367	84	28	9	0%	1.0	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	2.4%	3.76	3.85	+0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	78	0	82	346	77	27	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.7%	3.96	4.07	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		296	8	355	1483	343	106	32	3%	1.2	23.1%	7.2%	16.0%	2.1%	3.48	3.23	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	5	200	835	193	60	18	3%	1.2	23.1%	7.2%	16.0%	2.1%	3.48	3.23	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		59	11	110	450	115	29	6	19%	1.9	25.6%	6.4%	19.1%	1.3%	2.94	2.49	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	20	200	816	208	53	11	19%	1.9	25.6%	6.4%	19.1%	1.3%	2.94	2.49	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Miles (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.48	23.8%	7.0%	2.0%	—	3.85	22.9%	15.3%	273	+0.37	—	—	—
Richard Rodríguez R 2017 · 3.03 FIP	27	SU	3.03	24.7%	6.3%	2.2%	.279	3.45	28.4%	22.2%	158	+0.42	2.23	545	78
Heath Hembree R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	21.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	4.03	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.29	2.52	382	76
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	75
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	74
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	74
Brandon Brennan R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SU	3.42	19.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.263	3.81	21.7%	12.0%	85	+0.39	3.11	403	74
Luke Barker R 2019 · 2.74 FIP	27	SU	2.74	25.8%	7.5%	1.6%	.159	3.64	27.4%	22.0%	86	+0.90	2.74	261	73
Will Vest R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	27	SU	3.43	23.2%	8.1%	2.3%	.309	2.91	25.4%	18.5%	200	-0.52	2.56	448	73
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	73
Trent Harris R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.36	24.7%	16.7%	121	-0.09	3.06	198	73
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	72
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	72
Wil Browning R 2016 · 2.77 FIP	27	SU	2.77	23.8%	7.4%	1.3%	.292	4.44	17.9%	4.8%	58	+1.67	2.14	162	72
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	72
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	72
Jhan Mariñez R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	27	SU	3.16	18.6%	6.7%	1.4%	.294	4.02	19.0%	10.6%	106	+0.86	3.16	253	72
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	72
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	71
Adam Ottavino R 2013 · 2.84 FIP	27	SU	2.84	23.3%	7.8%	1.3%	.301	2.65	27.8%	22.0%	92	-0.19	2.10	733	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	93	23.3%	7.2%	0.83	3.47
Johnny Enzmann ('14-'20, 2 WAR*)	1.3	90	19.4%*	5.8%*	0.95*	3.84*
Wally Burnette ('56-'58, 3 WAR*)	1.3	88	17.5%*	7.6%*	1.03*	3.68*
Johnny Miljus ('15-'29, 4 WAR*)	2.3	91	21.2%*	9.4%*	0.80*	4.09*
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.3%	6.6%	1.05	3.11
Spencer Turnbull ('25)	1.8	73	21.8%	9.1%	0.77	4.31
Reese Olson ('25)	1.4	95	23.0%	7.8%	0.82	3.60