Spencer Miles

P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX2 levels	5	0	7	3.68	2.83	40.0%	10.0%	—	K 40.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 2.82
2024	24	ROKSF	5	3	7	4.91	1.19	31.2%	6.2%	—	K 31.2% · BB 6.2% · FIP 1.25
2026	26	MLBTOR	49	8	96	2.73	2.59	24.0%	6.2%	2.3
2027PROJ	27	MLBTOR	69	0	72	3.40	3.48	23.8%	7.0%	0.9
2028PROJ90% MLB	28	MLBTOR	57	0	60	3.58	3.64	23.5%	7.3%	0.7
2029PROJ92% MLB	29	MLBTOR	47	0	49	3.76	3.85	22.8%	7.5%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$0.8M2030Arb-2$0.8M2031Ext$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo71

K%60

Form1.35 ERA (proj 3.40) · K 24.5% (proj 23.8%) · BB 5.5% (proj 7.0%) · last 90d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsRichard Rodríguez (age 27) · Heath Hembree (age 27) · Austin Ross (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9284vR 76

ERA3.40

FIP3.48

K%23.8%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%16.8%

Proj IP82

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.271

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-2	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.1M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	30	12	3	1	0%	1.5	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	3.3%	3.68	2.82	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	7	30	12	3	1	0%	1.5	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	3.3%	3.68	2.83	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	5	3	7	32	10	2	0	60%	1.5	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.91	1.25	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	5	3	7	32	10	2	0	60%	1.5	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.91	1.25	—
2024	24	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	5	3	7	32	10	2	0	60%	1.5	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.91	1.19	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	49	8	96	388	93	24	5	16%	2.0	24.0%	6.2%	17.8%	1.3%	2.73	2.57	+2.3
2026	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	49	8	96	388	93	24	5	16%	2.0	24.0%	6.2%	17.8%	1.3%	2.73	2.57	+2.3
2026	26	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	49	8	96	388	93	24	5	16%	2.0	24.0%	6.2%	17.8%	1.3%	2.73	2.59	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			49	8	96	388	93	24	5	16%	2.0	24.0%	6.2%	17.8%	1.3%	2.73	2.59	+2.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TOR	69	0	72	304	73	21	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	2.0%	3.40	3.48	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	63	0	67	281	66	20	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.3%	16.3%	2.2%	3.58	3.64	+0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	51	0	54	226	52	17	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	2.4%	3.76	3.85	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	41	0	43	181	40	14	5	0%	1.0	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.7%	3.96	4.07	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	57	0	60	253	60	18	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.3%	16.3%	2.2%	3.58	3.64	+0.7
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	47	0	49	207	47	16	5	0%	1.0	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	2.4%	3.76	3.85	+0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	38	0	40	169	37	13	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.7%	3.96	4.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	8	245	1018	237	71	20	4%	1.3	23.3%	7.0%	16.3%	2.0%	3.35	3.11	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		156	7	200	831	194	58	16	4%	1.3	23.3%	7.0%	16.3%	2.0%	3.35	3.11	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		59	11	110	450	115	29	6	19%	1.9	25.6%	6.4%	19.1%	1.3%	2.94	2.49	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	20	200	816	208	53	11	19%	1.9	25.6%	6.4%	19.1%	1.3%	2.94	2.49	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 ROKACL Giants · 7 IPFIP 1.25 → 2.30 (+1.04)K% 31.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.680	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.250	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.178	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 1.25 → 2.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Miles (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.0%	—	3.82	22.9%	15.4%	163	+0.34	—	—	—
Richard Rodríguez R 2017 · 3.03 FIP	27	SU	3.03	24.7%	6.3%	2.2%	.279	3.45	28.4%	22.2%	158	+0.42	2.23	545	79
Heath Hembree R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	21.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	4.03	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.29	2.52	382	79
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	76
Brandon Brennan R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SU	3.42	19.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.263	3.81	21.7%	12.0%	85	+0.39	3.11	403	75
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	75
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	75
Luke Barker R 2019 · 2.74 FIP	27	SU	2.74	25.8%	7.5%	1.6%	.159	3.64	27.4%	22.0%	86	+0.90	2.74	261	75
Will Vest R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	27	SU	3.43	23.2%	8.1%	2.3%	.309	2.91	25.4%	18.5%	200	-0.52	2.56	448	74
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	74
Wil Browning R 2016 · 2.77 FIP	27	SU	2.77	23.8%	7.4%	1.3%	.292	4.44	17.9%	4.8%	58	+1.67	2.14	162	74
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	74
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	74
Trent Harris R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.36	24.7%	16.7%	121	-0.09	3.06	198	74
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	74
Jhan Mariñez R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	27	SU	3.16	18.6%	6.7%	1.4%	.294	4.02	19.0%	10.6%	106	+0.86	3.16	253	73
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	73
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	73
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	23.4%	7.1%	0.78	3.37
Bob Reynolds ('69-'75, 4 WAR*)	1.3	85	23.1%*	7.4%*	0.94*	3.63*
Steve Olin ('89-'92, 4 WAR*)	1.4	68	20.3%*	7.5%*	0.64*	3.30*
Ramon Hernandez ('67-'77, 6 WAR*)	2.2	61	19.7%*	7.3%*	0.77*	3.65*
Bobby Jenks ('11)	1.8	60	23.4%	8.2%	0.65	3.53
Alex Colomé ('23)	2.7	60	21.0%	8.3%	0.83	3.36
Luke Gregerson ('19)	3.1	69	24.7%	7.0%	0.79	3.15