Spencer Miles
P
Toronto Blue Jays
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9585vR 76
ERA3.41
FIP3.53
K%23.8%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%15.1%
ROS IP12
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p5723.5%
xwOBA vs
p800.283
FB+3.0 (56%)
SI (40%)
CU (26%)
SL-0.8 (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 40.0% | 10.0% | 30.0% | 3.3% | 3.68 | 2.82 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 40.0% | 10.0% | 30.0% | 3.3% | 3.68 | 2.83 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | ACL Giants | 5 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 60% | 1.5 | 31.2% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 1.25 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | ACL Giants | 5 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 60% | 1.5 | 31.2% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 1.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 26 | 3 | 60 | 243 | 57 | 19 | 4 | 12% | 2.3 | 23.5% | 7.8% | 15.6% | 1.6% | 2.85 | 3.01 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 2.4% | 3.41 | 3.53 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 2.4% | 3.41 | 3.53 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 72 | 295 | 69 | 24 | 5 | — | — | 23.5% | 8.0% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 2.95 | 3.10 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 72 | 305 | 69 | 24 | 5 | — | — | 22.7% | 7.7% | 15.0% | 1.7% | 2.95 | 3.10 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 72 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 69 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 65 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 69 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 3 | 268 | 1121 | 265 | 98 | 28 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 3.56 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 2 | 200 | 837 | 198 | 73 | 21 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 6 | 75 | 305 | 79 | 24 | 5 | 17% | 2.1 | 25.9% | 7.9% | 18.0% | 1.6% | 3.13 | 2.81 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 16 | 200 | 817 | 212 | 64 | 13 | 17% | 2.1 | 25.9% | 7.9% | 18.0% | 1.6% | 3.13 | 2.81 | +6.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Miles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 24.3% | 9.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.11 | 23.7% | 14.6% | 206 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Richard Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 3.0% | .267 | 3.39 | 26.2% | 19.8% | 205 | -0.42 | 2.16 | 545 | 80 |
| Stephen Perakslis R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.17 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 1.5% | .313 | 5.36 | 11.8% | 5.9% | 42 | +2.19 | 3.17 | 211 | 78 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 78 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 77 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 77 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 77 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .298 | 3.09 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -1.00 | 1.97 | 682 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 76 |
| Blake Treinen R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 76 |
| Seth Simmons R 2027 · 3.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.06 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.93 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.87 | 3.06 | 251 | 76 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.55 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 3.24 | 24.5% | 15.5% | 94 | -1.31 | 2.35 | 238 | 75 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.04 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .267 | 3.26 | 29.8% | 22.2% | 215 | +0.22 | 1.35 | 797 | 75 |
| Joe Navilhon R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.06 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 1.3% | .322 | 4.41 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 99 | +1.35 | 2.12 | 273 | 75 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 75 |
| Anthony Vizcaya R 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.19 | 21.9% | 10.8% | 1.0% | .259 | 7.08 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 13 | +3.89 | 3.19 | 115 | 75 |
| Madison Younginer IV R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.24 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .370 | 4.72 | 14.0% | -5.3% | 27 | +0.48 | 3.04 | 219 | 75 |
| Louis Head R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.30 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 1.5% | .282 | 3.44 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 89 | +0.14 | 2.75 | 336 | 75 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 75 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 70 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 1.06 | 4.05 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Juan Nicasio ('19) | 5 | 68 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 0.83 | 4.21 |