Spencer Miles — OGILVIE

Spencer Miles P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8981vR 73

ERA3.26

FIP3.39

K%24.1%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%16.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL5550

CMD3040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p1019.0%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.266

FB+3.0 (59%)

SI (45%)

CU (25%)

SL-0.8 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.7M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.2M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$10M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	30	12	3	1	0%	1.5	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	3.3%	3.68	2.82	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	7	30	12	3	1	0%	1.5	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	3.3%	3.68	2.83	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	5	3	7	32	10	2	0	60%	1.5	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.91	1.25	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	5	3	7	32	10	2	0	60%	1.5	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.91	1.25	—
2024	24	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	5	3	7	32	10	2	0	60%	1.5	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.91	1.19	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			46	7	90	359	86	22	5	15%	1.9	24.0%	6.1%	17.8%	1.4%	2.71	2.64	+2.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	46	7	90	359	86	22	5	15%	1.9	24.0%	6.1%	17.8%	1.4%	2.71	2.62	+2.1
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	46	7	90	359	86	22	5	15%	1.9	24.0%	6.1%	17.8%	1.4%	2.71	2.62	+2.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	TOR	46	7	90	359	86	22	5	15%	1.9	24.0%	6.1%	17.8%	1.4%	2.71	2.62	+2.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	TOR	46	7	90	359	86	22	5	15%	1.9	24.0%	6.1%	17.8%	1.4%	2.71	2.62	+2.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TOR	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	24.1%	7.4%	16.6%	2.5%	3.26	3.39	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	TOR	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	24.1%	7.4%	16.6%	2.5%	3.26	3.39	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	96	384	92	24	6	—	—	24.0%	6.2%	17.8%	1.5%	2.74	2.67	+2.7
FULL	26	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	96	403	92	24	6	—	—	22.8%	5.9%	16.9%	1.4%	2.74	2.69	+2.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	88	0	92	390	93	30	9	0%	1.1	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.3%	3.62	3.69	+1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	88	0	92	390	92	30	10	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.7%	15.9%	2.5%	3.75	3.81	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	84	0	88	372	87	30	10	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.0%	15.4%	2.6%	3.89	3.97	+0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	79	0	83	350	80	29	10	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	2.8%	4.05	4.15	+0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	84	0	88	372	89	28	9	0%	1.0	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.3%	3.62	3.69	+0.9
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	84	0	88	372	88	29	9	0%	1.0	23.6%	7.7%	15.9%	2.5%	3.75	3.81	+0.8
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	80	0	84	355	83	28	9	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.0%	15.4%	2.6%	3.89	3.97	+0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	75	0	79	334	76	27	9	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	2.8%	4.05	4.15	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		374	7	434	1811	427	136	42	2%	1.2	23.6%	7.5%	16.0%	2.3%	3.58	3.34	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		172	3	200	835	197	63	19	2%	1.2	23.6%	7.5%	16.0%	2.3%	3.58	3.34	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		56	10	104	421	108	27	6	18%	1.9	25.7%	6.4%	19.2%	1.4%	2.93	2.53	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	19	200	807	207	52	12	18%	1.9	25.7%	6.4%	19.2%	1.4%	2.93	2.53	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Miles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.05	24.3%	8.8%	2.7%	—	3.82	23.6%	15.9%	273	-0.23	—	—	—
Richard Rodríguez R 2016 · 3.34 FIP	26	SU	3.34	21.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.267	3.40	26.2%	19.8%	205	+0.06	2.23	545	82
Stephen Perakslis R 2017 · 3.07 FIP	26	SW	3.07	21.3%	8.2%	1.3%	.313	5.15	11.8%	5.9%	42	+2.08	3.07	211	77
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	76
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	76
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	76
Ian Gardeck R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	24	SU	2.93	22.4%	7.7%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	105	76
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	76
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	76
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	75
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	75
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	75
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	74
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	74
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	74
Luke Barker R 2018 · 3.21 FIP	26	SU	3.21	20.0%	7.6%	1.5%	.275	3.20	27.5%	21.9%	122	-0.01	2.74	261	74
Louis Head R 2016 · 3.25 FIP	26	SU	3.25	18.3%	7.3%	1.4%	.282	3.53	21.9%	10.7%	89	+0.28	2.76	336	74
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	74
Alex Colomé R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	26	SW	3.33	19.3%	5.9%	2.0%	.309	2.95	25.5%	19.3%	191	-0.38	2.72	530	74
Raisel Iglesias R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	26	SU	3.01	25.5%	7.7%	2.0%	.267	3.22	29.8%	22.2%	215	+0.21	1.34	820	74
Danny Farquhar R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	22.4%	6.8%	3.2%	.324	3.84	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.01	3.62	224	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	89	23.6%	8.1%	1.00	3.84
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Braxton Garrett ('24)	1.6	80	23.1%	5.7%	1.04	3.98