Kelvin DiazSS
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 23
R/R
6'2" / 143 lbs
A
HR -9%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2030
wRC+†56
AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .265 / .297
PA124
HR2
K%34
BB%8
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20↗25
PWR
30↗35
SPD
57↗62
EYE
50↗55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2030
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $4M | $-3M | -$7M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL PIT Black | 69 | 56 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .071 | .224 | .107 | .331 | .036 | .160 | 48 | 9 | .185 | 0 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL PIT Black | 170 | 145 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 57 | 5 | 17 | 5 | .145 | .271 | .241 | .512 | .097 | .230 | 34 | 12 | .241 | 43 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 109 | 96 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 2 | 11 | 1 | .156 | .250 | .260 | .510 | .104 | .265 | 41 | 9 | .215 | 23 | -10 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | 2 teams | 147 | 133 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 77 | 2 | 8 | 3 | .120 | .188 | .180 | .368 | .060 | .268 | 52 | 6 | .159 | -20 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -1.4 |
| 2025 | 22 | A | 2 teams | 128 | 111 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 64 | 1 | 10 | 3 | .117 | .216 | .180 | .396 | .063 | .255 | 50 | 10 | .181 | -3 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 124 | 112 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .188 | .260 | .295 | .555 | .107 | .283 | 35 | 8 | .258 | 56 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB 10% | WSH | 202 | 181 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 66 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .199 | .275 | .315 | .590 | .116 | .284 | 33 | 8 | .269 | 64 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB 25% | WSH | 292 | 261 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 93 | 3 | 7 | 2 | .203 | .283 | .326 | .608 | .123 | .286 | 32 | 9 | .276 | 70 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB 42% | WSH | 354 | 315 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 111 | 4 | 9 | 2 | .206 | .288 | .333 | .621 | .127 | .287 | 31 | 9 | .280 | 73 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB 58% | WSH | 385 | 343 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 121 | 4 | 10 | 2 | .207 | .288 | .335 | .623 | .128 | .287 | 31 | 9 | .282 | 74 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB 68% | WSH | 402 | 358 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 127 | 4 | 10 | 2 | .207 | .288 | .332 | .621 | .126 | .287 | 32 | 9 | .280 | 73 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB 77% | WSH | 406 | 362 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 129 | 4 | 9 | 2 | .204 | .285 | .329 | .614 | .124 | .286 | 32 | 9 | .278 | 71 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB 94% | WSH | 406 | 362 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 130 | 4 | 9 | 2 | .204 | .285 | .329 | .614 | .124 | .284 | 32 | 9 | .275 | 69 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +4 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 396 | 353 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 129 | 4 | 8 | 1 | .198 | .280 | .314 | .594 | .116 | .283 | 33 | 9 | .271 | 66 | -15 | +1 | -3 | +4 | +11 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 381 | 339 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 126 | 4 | 8 | 1 | .198 | .280 | .316 | .596 | .118 | .281 | 33 | 9 | .267 | 62 | -16 | +1 | -4 | +4 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 353 | 315 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 119 | 3 | 7 | 0 | .194 | .274 | .308 | .582 | .114 | .279 | 34 | 9 | .262 | 58 | -17 | +1 | -4 | +4 | +10 | -0.6 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 311 | 277 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 108 | 3 | 6 | 0 | .184 | .266 | .278 | .544 | .094 | .277 | 35 | 9 | .255 | 54 | -16 | +1 | -5 | +3 | +9 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4635 | 4119 | 786 | 153 | 24 | 89 | 420 | 1578 | 55 | 140 | 28 | .191 | .274 | .304 | .579 | .114 | .281 | 34 | 9 | .263 | 59 | -214 | +17 | -20 | +50 | +131 | -3.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 578 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 221 | 8 | 20 | 4 | .189 | .273 | .298 | .571 | .109 | .278 | 34 | 9 | .263 | 59 | -30 | +2 | -3 | +7 | +18 | -0.5 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL PIT Black | 69 | 52 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .154 | .343 | .288 | .632 | .135 | .226 | 32 | 14 | .298 | 86 | -1 | +1 | — | — | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL PIT Black | 170 | 133 | 29 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 40 | 5 | 17 | 5 | .218 | .388 | .368 | .757 | .150 | .304 | 24 | 19 | .352 | 127 | +5 | +1 | — | — | +5 | 1.2 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 109 | 90 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 28 | 2 | 11 | 1 | .233 | .361 | .378 | .739 | .144 | .317 | 26 | 15 | .335 | 115 | +2 | +2 | — | — | +3 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 38 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .265 | .306 | .412 | .717 | .147 | .400 | 37 | 5 | .302 | 89 | -0 | -0 | — | — | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 109 | 94 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 2 | 7 | 2 | .149 | .259 | .213 | .472 | .064 | .259 | 37 | 11 | .227 | 32 | -8 | +1 | — | — | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 102 | 83 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 33 | 1 | 8 | 3 | .181 | .313 | .277 | .590 | .096 | .280 | 32 | 15 | .273 | 67 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 26 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .190 | .346 | .238 | .584 | .048 | .400 | 42 | 19 | .288 | 79 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Kelvin Diaz (OGILVIE) | 23 | 20→25 | 30→35 | 57→62 | 55 | .190/.265/.297 | .107 | .283 | 2 | 3 | 34% | 8% | 56 | -0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A |
24 | 37 | 39→40 | 49→50 | 44 | .183/.260/.264 | .081 | .271 | 8 | 14 | 33% | 9% | 45 | -2.1 | .205/.286/.296 | .091 | .292 | 7 | 13 | 29% | 9% | 63 | -0.8 | .211/.301/.305 | .094 | .293 | 5 | 13 | 27% | 10% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA |
23 | 41 | 39→45 | 53→50 | 39 | .193/.262/.274 | .080 | .300 | 7 | 13 | 36% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .208/.307/.328 | .120 | .294 | 12 | 12 | 31% | 10% | 82 | +0.5 | .212/.315/.318 | .105 | .301 | 9 | 14 | 29% | 10% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A |
23 | 36 | 40→45 | 52→50 | 36 | .183/.218/.281 | .098 | .255 | 7 | 9 | 31% | 4% | 30 | -3.1 | .212/.258/.297 | .085 | .293 | 5 | 9 | 28% | 6% | 50 | -1.7 | .233/.289/.308 | .075 | .313 | 4 | 8 | 25% | 7% | 63 | -0.4 |
|
✕Chase Strumpf 2021 · A |
23 | 44→35 | 42→50 | 49→45 | 42 | .208/.284/.314 | .106 | .302 | 8 | 7 | 32% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .197/.289/.340 | .143 | .309 | 15 | 5 | 38% | 9% | 77 | +0.1 | .182/.286/.344 | .162 | .286 | 20 | 4 | 40% | 10% | 74 | -0.1 |
|
✕Brian Ruggiano 2009 · A |
23 | 40→44 | 38→45 | 54→55 | 38 | .192/.247/.277 | .085 | .295 | 5 | 10 | 35% | 6% | 41 | -2.3 | .215/.269/.322 | .107 | .306 | 9 | 14 | 31% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .218/.273/.332 | .114 | .299 | 9 | 15 | 29% | 5% | 64 | -0.4 |
|
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A |
22 | 42→30 | 38→45 | 56→50 | 41 | .197/.266/.279 | .082 | .311 | 5 | 16 | 36% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .214/.271/.343 | .129 | .318 | 13 | 13 | 35% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .203/.261/.318 | .115 | .298 | 12 | 16 | 35% | 6% | 54 | -0.8 |
|
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA |
23 | 39 | 44→45 | 51→55 | 40 | .195/.268/.308 | .113 | .290 | 12 | 13 | 35% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .200/.270/.300 | .100 | .307 | 9 | 12 | 35% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .166/.253/.240 | .073 | .276 | 4 | 11 | 37% | 10% | 33 | -0.6 |
|
✕Jackson Loftin 2023 · A |
23 | 42→34 | 42→40 | 53→65 | 36 | .199/.268/.301 | .102 | .322 | 9 | 14 | 39% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .180/.256/.275 | .095 | .260 | 9 | 31 | 33% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .158/.237/.244 | .086 | .226 | 9 | 40 | 32% | 7% | 28 | -1.9 |
|
✕Alerick Soularie 2022 · A |
23 | 44 | 42→45 | 54→60 | 45 | .209/.287/.315 | .106 | .311 | 10 | 14 | 34% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .196/.278/.313 | .117 | .292 | 12 | 21 | 34% | 9% | 66 | -0.6 | .179/.268/.293 | .114 | .262 | 13 | 29 | 34% | 9% | 54 | -0.6 |
|
✕Maverick Handley 2022 · A |
24 | 40 | 42→45 | 52→50 | 40 | .189/.270/.291 | .102 | .312 | 9 | 16 | 39% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .201/.289/.309 | .108 | .281 | 11 | 12 | 30% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .196/.292/.292 | .096 | .264 | 10 | 10 | 27% | 9% | 64 | -0.4 |
|
✕Justin Farmer 2023 · A |
24 | 39→33 | 44→40 | 54→55 | 51 | .190/.295/.305 | .115 | .292 | 12 | 19 | 36% | 12% | 71 | -0.3 | .186/.265/.277 | .091 | .307 | 8 | 19 | 38% | 9% | 50 | -1.7 | .159/.224/.221 | .061 | .275 | 5 | 22 | 41% | 7% | 15 | -2.3 |
|
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A |
23 | 44→42 | 42→45 | 51→55 | 48 | .212/.285/.319 | .107 | .280 | 9 | 10 | 26% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .204/.289/.323 | .119 | .267 | 12 | 14 | 26% | 10% | 72 | -0.2 | .192/.284/.327 | .135 | .243 | 17 | 21 | 27% | 10% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A |
23 | 39→40 | 39→45 | 49→45 | 37 | .187/.241/.273 | .085 | .291 | 6 | 9 | 36% | 6% | 37 | -2.6 | .183/.266/.292 | .109 | .257 | 11 | 5 | 31% | 9% | 55 | -1.4 | .165/.258/.271 | .106 | .227 | 11 | 3 | 31% | 10% | 44 | -1.1 |
|
✕Raul Beracierta 2022 · A |
23 | 42 | 44→50 | 50 | 38 | .206/.263/.332 | .126 | .313 | 11 | 8 | 36% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .226/.273/.356 | .130 | .336 | 15 | 5 | 35% | 5% | 73 | -0.1 | .235/.278/.368 | .133 | .343 | 18 | 1 | 36% | 4% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A |
23 | 41 | 35→30 | 52→55 | 42 | .188/.277/.248 | .060 | .302 | 3 | 12 | 35% | 8% | 49 | -1.8 | .222/.280/.282 | .060 | .288 | 3 | 17 | 22% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .244/.292/.297 | .053 | .299 | 2 | 23 | 18% | 5% | 62 | -0.3 |
|
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2022 · A |
23 | 43 | 41→40 | 57→60 | 40 | .203/.269/.298 | .096 | .321 | 9 | 24 | 38% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .188/.271/.269 | .081 | .305 | 6 | 20 | 37% | 9% | 51 | -1.7 | .098/.228/.122 | .024 | .176 | 0 | 28 | 38% | 12% | -2 | -1.2 |
|
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA |
23 | 36 | 43→50 | 49→40 | 40 | .184/.244/.291 | .107 | .270 | 10 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 44 | -2.1 | .200/.256/.326 | .126 | .277 | 13 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .206/.268/.347 | .141 | .262 | 15 | 2 | 27% | 6% | 67 | -0.3 |
|
✕Juan Uriarte 2021 · A |
23 | 38 | 41→45 | 48→30 | 32 | .190/.229/.285 | .095 | .284 | 9 | 6 | 36% | 4% | 36 | -2.7 | .195/.244/.278 | .083 | .290 | 6 | 6 | 33% | 4% | 40 | -2.4 | .151/.199/.200 | .049 | .234 | 0 | 0 | 33% | 2% | -2 | -1.2 |
|
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A |
22 | 41 | 39→40 | 49→40 | 40 | .198/.263/.282 | .084 | .277 | 6 | 7 | 29% | 6% | 50 | -1.7 | .218/.296/.304 | .086 | .283 | 8 | 4 | 24% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .219/.302/.289 | .070 | .280 | 7 | 1 | 22% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A |
23 | 36 | 47→50 | 49→50 | 38 | .190/.256/.326 | .136 | .273 | 15 | 10 | 35% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .205/.269/.352 | .147 | .297 | 17 | 9 | 35% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .199/.264/.350 | .151 | .290 | 18 | 7 | 36% | 6% | 66 | -0.2 |