Kelvin Diaz — OGILVIE

Kelvin DiazSS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 143 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 124 proj PA

wRC+†41

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .252 / .262

PA124

HR1

K%32

BB%8

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	69	56	4	2	0	0	6	35	5	3	0	71	224	107	331	36	174	51	9	175	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	69	52	8	4	0	1	10	22	5	3	0	154	343	288	632	135	226	32	14	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	170	145	22	10	1	1	20	57	5	17	5	152	276	255	532	103	241	34	12	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	170	133	29	13	2	1	32	40	5	17	5	218	388	368	757	150	304	24	19	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	109	96	15	2	1	2	10	45	2	11	1	156	250	260	510	104	265	41	9	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	109	90	21	3	2	2	16	28	2	11	1	233	361	378	739	144	317	26	15	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	2 teams	—	147	133	16	5	0	1	9	76	2	8	3	120	188	180	368	60	263	52	6	162	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	2 teams	—	147	128	23	8	0	1	14	54	2	8	3	180	271	266	536	86	297	37	10	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	128	111	13	2	1	1	13	66	1	10	3	117	216	180	396	63	267	52	10	173	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	128	104	19	4	1	1	20	44	1	10	3	183	320	269	589	87	300	34	16	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	WSH	—	124	112	20	4	1	1	10	40	1	3	1	179	252	259	511	80	263	32	8	239	41	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	WSH	30%	202	182	35	7	1	3	16	63	2	5	1	192	265	291	556	99	268	31	8	251	50	-11	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	WSH	44%	292	263	52	10	2	5	24	89	3	7	2	198	272	308	580	110	270	30	8	259	56	-15	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	WSH	30%	61	55	10	2	0	1	5	19	1	1	0	182	262	273	535	91	268	31	8	244	45	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	WSH	44%	129	116	22	4	1	2	11	39	1	3	1	190	266	293	559	103	270	30	9	251	51	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	190	171	32	6	1	3	16	58	2	4	1	187	265	287	551	99	261	31	8	249	49	-11	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	109	21	3	10	55	198	7	14	3	186	264	284	548	97	261	30	8	249	49	-38	+2	+0	+7	+18	-1.1
Career	—			—	1241	1098	177	42	7	14	108	471	21	64	16	161	249	250	500	89	263	38	9	225	30	-98	+6	+0	+13	+35	-4.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	93	22	4	7	57	247	11	34	8	162	251	250	501	89	265	38	9	225	30	-51	+4	+0	+7	+18	-2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	69	52	8	4	0	1	10	22	5	3	0	154	343	288	632	135	226	32	14	298	86	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	19	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	170	133	29	13	2	1	32	40	5	17	5	218	388	368	757	150	304	24	19	352	127	+5	+1	—	—	+5	1.2
2023	20	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	109	90	21	3	2	2	16	28	2	11	1	233	361	378	739	144	317	26	15	335	115	+2	+2	—	—	+3	0.7
2024	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	38	34	9	2	0	1	2	14	0	1	1	265	306	412	717	147	400	37	5	302	89	-0	-0	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	21	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	109	94	14	6	0	0	12	40	2	7	2	149	259	213	472	64	259	37	11	227	32	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.5
2025	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	102	83	15	3	1	1	15	33	1	8	3	181	313	277	590	96	280	32	15	273	67	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2025	22	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	26	21	4	1	0	0	5	11	0	2	0	190	346	238	584	48	400	42	19	288	79	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	314	4	7	189	260	284	+3	+6	-0.5	-0.2
	/162	664	9	16	189	260	284	+7.1	+12.7	-1.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kelvin Diaz (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	30→35	57→62	55	179/252/262	84	263	1	3	32%	8%	41	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	42	-2.3	199/264/283	84	349	5	9	41%	7%	51	-1.7	149/237/238	89	307	4	14	47%	8%	28	-0.6
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	33→36	41→45	53→55	43	170/253/270	99	234	9	20	30%	7%	44	-2.1	183/267/288	105	279	10	20	36%	8%	55	-1.4	148/255/300	152	246	20	20	45%	10%	51	-0.7
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	42	183/275/240	57	297	3	13	36%	8%	46	-2.0	217/272/277	60	282	3	17	23%	6%	51	-1.7	231/276/282	51	286	2	23	19%	5%	51	-0.6
✕Ethan Murray 2023 · AA	23	35→45	41→40	51→50	42	177/250/275	97	266	9	13	35%	8%	43	-2.2	197/270/288	91	301	7	12	34%	8%	55	-1.4	193/271/278	85	293	6	13	33%	8%	49	-1.1
✕Alfredo Reyes 2017 · A	23	36	36→30	57→55	35	178/218/236	57	272	4	20	35%	5%	17	-4.0	197/250/262	65	326	4	24	38%	6%	38	-2.6	193/254/252	59	326	4	28	39%	7%	34	-1.5
✕Oliver Marmol 2009 · A	23	37	36→40	55	38	180/236/245	66	252	3	19	29%	5%	29	-3.2	187/267/275	88	285	6	13	34%	6%	51	-1.7	159/261/249	90	258	5	10	36%	6%	42	-0.7
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	38	38→30	47→50	39	185/237/262	77	264	5	13	31%	6%	33	-2.9	197/249/259	62	309	3	10	35%	6%	37	-2.6	191/245/241	50	305	2	10	36%	6%	27	-1.8
✕Grae Kessinger 2021 · A	23	43→28	39→45	50	47	209/276/293	84	265	7	12	23%	8%	58	-1.2	188/256/297	109	262	13	15	32%	7%	51	-1.7	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	34	40→45	53→50	34	176/209/269	93	256	6	9	34%	4%	22	-3.7	215/263/298	83	301	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Leosdany Molina 2023 · A	23	40→34	38→40	53→50	37	193/242/267	74	280	6	17	32%	5%	37	-2.7	199/246/281	82	281	9	14	31%	5%	42	-2.3	184/229/246	61	251	10	18	30%	5%	24	-1.9
✕Gunnar Heidt 2016 · A	23	34→39	35→45	49→50	36	169/210/231	62	247	3	11	32%	5%	13	-4.3	191/247/294	103	286	9	12	34%	6%	46	-2.0	189/248/295	106	281	10	12	35%	7%	44	-1.6
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A	22	44→28	38→45	57→50	41	201/270/281	80	317	5	16	36%	8%	53	-1.5	213/271/338	125	320	13	13	35%	6%	68	-0.5	202/261/313	111	301	12	16	35%	6%	53	-0.8
✕Chris Hess 2018 · A	23	39→34	37→45	49→30	38	187/245/270	83	282	3	5	33%	6%	39	-2.5	194/251/308	114	284	11	4	34%	4%	52	-1.6	181/239/309	128	257	14	1	34%	4%	46	-1.6
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→50	38	201/251/299	98	265	10	15	28%	5%	49	-1.8	209/254/332	123	305	13	11	34%	5%	59	-1.1	181/215/331	150	258	17	11	37%	3%	42	-0.5
✕Stephen Wrenn 2018 · A	23	42→43	39→45	51→60	40	204/254/292	87	288	7	12	31%	6%	48	-1.9	199/255/300	101	295	8	24	33%	6%	51	-1.7	192/250/301	109	290	9	31	35%	6%	47	-1.4
✕Julio Carrion 2022 · A	23	39	38→40	50→45	42	187/268/265	78	282	6	5	33%	7%	49	-1.8	180/252/267	87	346	8	5	46%	7%	42	-2.3	150/225/232	81	315	9	4	51%	7%	19	-1.5
✕Joe Cronin 2017 · A	23	40	38→45	48→50	43	195/265/267	72	264	5	12	27%	6%	47	-1.9	180/270/270	90	282	8	7	36%	9%	51	-1.7	161/260/254	93	255	9	8	37%	10%	41	-1.0
✕Nic Kent 2023 · A	23	35→41	35→40	48→50	35	173/219/230	57	265	3	14	35%	4%	17	-4.0	199/249/278	79	265	7	10	26%	5%	43	-2.2	193/253/275	82	267	8	10	29%	6%	41	-1.3