Kelvin Diaz — OGILVIE

Kelvin DiazSS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 R/R 6'2" / 143 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .258 / .282

PA76

HR1

K%34

BB%7

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	69	52	8	4	0	1	10	22	5	3	0	154	343	288	632	135	226	32	14	298	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	170	133	29	13	2	1	32	40	5	17	5	218	388	368	757	150	304	24	19	352	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	109	90	21	3	2	2	16	28	2	11	1	233	361	378	739	144	317	26	15	335	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	38	34	9	2	0	1	2	14	0	1	1	265	306	412	717	147	400	37	5	302	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	109	94	14	6	0	0	12	40	2	7	2	149	259	213	472	64	259	37	11	227	-26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	102	83	15	3	1	1	15	33	1	8	3	181	313	277	590	96	280	32	15	273	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	26	21	4	1	0	0	5	11	0	2	0	190	346	238	584	48	400	42	19	288	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	—	69	55	4	2	0	0	7	28	5	3	0	73	239	109	348	36	133	41	10	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	—	170	143	19	8	1	1	22	48	5	17	5	133	271	224	494	91	188	28	13	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	109	96	14	2	1	1	10	43	2	11	1	146	241	219	459	73	237	39	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	38	35	8	2	0	1	1	18	0	1	1	229	250	371	621	143	355	47	3	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	109	99	8	3	0	0	7	58	2	7	2	81	157	111	269	30	185	53	6	130	-26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	102	88	11	2	1	1	10	46	1	8	3	125	222	205	427	80	224	45	10	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	26	23	2	0	0	0	3	16	0	2	0	87	192	87	279		312	62	12	160	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	—	69	55	4	2	0	0	7	28	5	3	0	73	239	109	348	36	138	41	10	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Black	—	69	52	8	4	0	1	10	22	5	3	0	154	343	288	632	135	226	32	14	298	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	—	170	143	19	8	1	1	22	48	5	17	5	133	271	224	494	91	191	28	13	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Black	—	170	133	29	13	2	1	32	40	5	17	5	218	388	368	757	150	304	24	19	352	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	109	96	14	2	1	1	10	43	2	11	1	146	241	219	459	73	250	39	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	—	109	90	21	3	2	2	16	28	2	11	1	233	361	378	739	144	317	26	15	335	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	133	16	5	0	1	9	76	2	8	3	120	188	180	368	60	263	52	6	157	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	147	128	23	8	0	1	14	54	2	8	3	180	271	266	536	86	297	37	10	247	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	128	111	13	2	1	1	13	62	1	10	3	117	216	180	396	63	245	48	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	128	104	19	4	1	1	20	44	1	10	3	183	320	269	589	87	300	34	16	276	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	—	69	57	4	2	0	0	7	28	5	3	0	70	239	105	344	35	133	41	10	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	—	170	141	19	8	1	1	22	48	5	17	5	135	271	227	498	92	188	28	13	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	109	96	14	2	1	1	10	43	2	11	1	146	241	219	459	73	237	39	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	135	16	5	0	1	9	76	2	8	3	119	188	178	365	59	229	52	6	157	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	128	113	13	2	1	1	13	62	1	10	3	115	216	177	393	62	242	48	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	135	16	5	0	1	9	76	2	8	3	119	188	178	365	59	229	52	6	157	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	128	113	13	2	1	1	13	62	1	10	3	115	216	177	393	62	242	48	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	200	181	35	7	1	3	15	68	2	6	1	191	260	284	544	93	286	34	8	248	54	-11	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	30%	131	119	23	4	1	2	10	44	1	4	1	196	264	297	561	101	287	34	8	255	59	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	44%	235	213	42	8	1	4	18	77	2	8	2	199	268	306	574	108	287	33	8	260	62	-11	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	49%	299	271	54	10	2	5	23	97	3	10	3	200	270	309	579	109	287	32	8	262	64	-13	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	51%	340	308	62	12	2	6	26	110	3	12	3	201	270	310	580	109	286	32	8	263	64	-15	+1	-1	+4	+7	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	30%	39	36	7	1	0	1	3	13	0	1	0	195	264	294	558	99	286	33	8	254	59	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	44%	104	94	20	4	1	2	8	34	1	4	1	198	267	304	572	106	286	33	8	259	62	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	49%	146	133	27	5	1	3	11	47	1	5	1	200	269	307	576	107	286	32	8	261	64	-6	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	51%	175	157	32	6	1	3	14	56	2	6	1	200	270	308	577	107	286	32	8	262	64	-7	+1	-0	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	464	420	86	16	3	9	36	150	4	16	3	205	274	321	595	117	292	32	8	261	46	-20	+2	-0	+5	+10	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	120	22	4	13	50	210	6	22	4	204	273	321	594	117	290	32	8	261	46	-29	+3	-1	+7	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	1704	1518	260	56	9	22	144	611	25	85	22	171	254	264	518	92	266	36	8	236	46	-49	+3	-1	+12	+23	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	98	21	3	8	55	233	10	32	8	169	253	257	510	88	264	36	8	236	46	-29	+2	-0	+7	+14	-0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.8	541	9	18	200	265	306	+6	+9	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	11	22	+7.1	+11.1	-0.2	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kelvin Diaz (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	190/258/282	92	286	1	2	34%	7%	54	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Maverick Handley 2022 · A	24	39	41→40	53→50	40	186/267/286	100	308	9	16	39%	8%	59	-1.6	201/292/301	100	281	10	12	30%	9%	72	-0.7	195/293/283	88	266	8	10	27%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	177/235/240	63	250	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	215/285/296	81	280	8	14	24%	8%	67	-1.1	210/285/284	74	270	8	16	24%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Shawn Goosenberg 2024 · A	24	40→38	42→45	56→55	41	196/265/296	100	285	10	23	33%	7%	60	-1.6	197/250/309	112	295	11	18	35%	6%	57	-1.8	184/234/312	127	273	14	18	37%	5%	49	-1.7
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→30	42→45	48→50	41	192/253/286	94	259	11	15	30%	6%	53	-2.1	198/271/310	112	262	13	14	28%	8%	66	-1.1	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Ashton Creal 2023 · A	24	38	41→40	54→55	39	183/258/280	97	290	8	22	37%	7%	54	-2.0	192/267/282	90	334	8	15	41%	7%	58	-1.7	135/227/179	45	293	7	12	51%	7%	18	-1.0
✕E.J. Exposito 2024 · A	23	37→33	41→50	50→55	43	177/262/268	90	293	9	14	39%	9%	53	-2.1	189/246/321	132	265	16	17	34%	6%	59	-1.7	184/237/328	144	240	19	19	32%	6%	55	-1.5
✕Ben Cowles 2024 · A	24	41→40	43→45	52→50	39	198/267/307	109	311	11	16	37%	7%	63	-1.4	210/271/322	112	295	9	16	30%	6%	68	-1.0	206/265/314	109	283	9	17	29%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→50	54→45	41	194/257/295	101	291	10	12	35%	8%	56	-1.9	208/270/316	108	304	10	9	33%	8%	66	-1.1	167/227/257	90	235	8	0	31%	7%	34	-0.6
✕Ben Gobbel 2024 · A	24	44→41	41→45	52→50	42	208/277/307	100	306	8	14	33%	7%	67	-1.1	216/267/338	122	283	14	12	28%	5%	70	-0.8	216/266/339	123	276	15	11	27%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	40→30	42→45	51→60	40	198/262/303	106	282	9	12	32%	6%	60	-1.6	182/252/273	91	277	7	13	35%	6%	50	-2.3	178/268/298	120	261	12	28	34%	10%	60	-0.9
✕Sammy Infante 2024 · A	23	37→26	42→45	50→55	37	183/252/282	99	292	10	15	39%	7%	52	-2.2	200/263/295	95	313	8	15	36%	7%	59	-1.7	164/228/246	82	264	6	18	38%	6%	32	-0.9
✕Thomas Jones 2022 · A	24	36	40	52→50	37	174/253/267	93	285	8	17	39%	6%	50	-2.3	180/259/292	112	314	11	13	43%	7%	58	-1.7	123/216/249	125	228	14	10	49%	8%	32	-1.4
✕Jacob Wetzel 2024 · A	24	38→34	41→45	50	44	185/262/277	92	271	8	12	33%	8%	55	-2.0	199/275/320	121	288	9	14	31%	9%	69	-0.9	196/279/346	150	275	11	17	30%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Max George 2021 · A	25	40→39	41→45	54→55	43	195/279/295	99	285	9	20	32%	8%	65	-1.2	193/280/317	124	321	13	15	41%	8%	72	-0.7	149/258/287	138	249	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Gunnar Heidt 2017 · A	24	39→41	41→45	48→50	39	193/250/295	101	280	8	15	32%	6%	53	-2.1	197/251/297	100	295	9	12	34%	6%	54	-2.0	194/248/291	96	283	9	9	33%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Alerick Soularie 2023 · A	24	40	44→45	53→60	44	195/276/310	114	290	11	16	34%	9%	68	-1.0	200/282/313	113	289	12	26	32%	9%	71	-0.8	182/274/287	105	255	13	39	32%	9%	61	-0.5
✕Tony Bullard 2024 · A	24	40	44→40	52→50	43	202/263/315	113	267	12	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	214/271/319	105	285	9	12	27%	6%	68	-1.0	210/267/311	102	278	9	13	27%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Justin Farmer 2023 · A	24	38→32	43→40	54→55	50	183/286/289	106	286	11	20	36%	12%	68	-1.0	187/262/275	88	306	8	18	38%	9%	54	-2.0	160/223/221	61	269	5	22	40%	7%	25	-2.3
✕Jawuan Harris 2021 · A	24	37→27	40	54→55	41	171/260/263	92	306	7	18	42%	9%	51	-2.2	178/258/261	83	372	6	20	48%	9%	50	-2.3	92/196/136	44	239	2	38	56%	10%	-2	-1.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps