Alex Martinez

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 170 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	MIX2 levels	20	31	1.74	2.81	30.9%	18.4%	—	K 24.3% · BB 19.1% · FIP 3.47
2024	21	ASEA	48	69	2.60	2.41	26.6%	10.7%	—	K 19.7% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.32
2026	23	MIX2 levels	40	67	6.45	4.03	29.9%	12.5%	—	K 22.6% · BB 14.5% · FIP 5.32
2027PROJ	24	MLBLAA	45	47	5.07	5.07	22.5%	13.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBLAA	25	26	4.90	4.83	22.9%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBLAA	38	40	4.81	4.77	23.2%	12.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsHarrison Cohen (age 24) · Brandon Johnson (age 24) · Ben Hecht (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%22.5%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	24	101	33	13	0	0%	1.4	24.7%	13.7%	10.9%	0.0%	1.52	2.76	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	24	101	33	13	0	0%	1.4	32.7%	12.9%	19.8%	0.0%	1.52	1.96	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	26	123	40	18	1	0%	1.3	21.9%	18.6%	3.4%	1.4%	6.23	4.34	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	26	123	40	18	1	0%	1.3	32.5%	14.6%	17.9%	0.8%	6.23	2.60	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	31	136	42	25	0	0%	1.6	24.3%	19.1%	5.2%	0.0%	1.74	3.47	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	31	136	42	25	0	0%	1.6	30.9%	18.4%	12.5%	0.0%	1.74	2.81	—
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	48	0	69	289	77	31	1	0%	1.4	19.7%	12.7%	7.1%	0.5%	2.60	3.32	—
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	48	0	69	289	77	31	1	0%	1.4	19.7%	12.7%	7.1%	0.5%	2.60	3.32	—
2024	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	48	0	69	289	77	31	1	0%	1.4	26.6%	10.7%	15.9%	0.3%	2.60	2.41	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	67	304	91	38	10	0%	1.7	22.6%	14.5%	8.1%	4.2%	6.45	5.32	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	67	304	91	38	10	0%	1.7	22.6%	14.5%	8.1%	4.2%	6.45	5.32	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	67	304	91	38	10	0%	1.7	29.9%	12.5%	17.4%	3.3%	6.45	4.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	LAA	45	0	47	198	45	27	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.7%	8.8%	3.2%	5.07	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	58	0	61	258	59	32	8	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.90	4.83	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	58	0	61	258	60	31	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.0%	11.2%	3.2%	4.81	4.77	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	25	0	26	110	25	13	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.90	4.83	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	38	0	40	169	39	20	5	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.0%	11.2%	3.2%	4.81	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	67	281	65	34	9	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.1%	11.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.41	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	102	27	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.1%	11.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		145	0	217	953	211	144	16	0%	1.5	22.1%	15.1%	7.0%	1.7%	3.98	4.05	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	0	200	878	194	132	15	0%	1.5	22.1%	15.1%	7.0%	1.7%	3.98	4.05	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	22.5%	13.7%	3.2%	—	4.80	23.1%	11.0%	122	-0.27	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	97
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	93
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	93
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	92
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	92
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	91
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	91
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	88
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	88
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	88
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	88
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	88
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	88
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	88
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	87
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
David Garner R 2017 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	21.5%	13.8%	3.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	154	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	22.9%	12.5%	1.23	4.91
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27