Christian Cerda

C Reno Aces

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #893Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP40ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	AAARI	383	.237/.345/.449	18	1	61	—	.182/.267/.313
2026	23	AAAARI	242	.234/.335/.361	5	0	63	—	.207/.284/.305
2027PROJ10% MLB	24	MLBARI	25	.213/.294/.330	0	0	75	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	25	MLBARI	107	.215/.297/.337	2	1	77	0.2
2029PROJ46% MLB	26	MLBARI	174	.217/.298/.341	4	1	79	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Chase%71

BB%64

K%56

Whiff%48

Max EV35

Z-Con%26

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 8, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 75%

CompsDrew Ellis (age 25) · Wyatt Toregas (age 24) · Orlando Mercado (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .294 / .330

PA25

HR0

K%24

BB%8

BABIP269

ISO43

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	164	133	29	9	2	1	25	25	6	5	3	218	366	338	704	120	262	15	15	330	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	88	24	8	0	2	23	19	0	5	0	273	423	432	855	159	324	17	21	385	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	168	127	30	6	0	6	38	35	1	0	0	236	416	425	841	189	273	21	23	379	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	302	238	60	14	1	5	55	61	5	1	0	252	403	382	785	130	312	20	18	358	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	18	14	4	0	0	1	4	5	0	0	0	286	444	500	944	214	375	28	22	421	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	66	50	10	3	0	0	16	22	0	1	0	200	394	260	654	60	357	33	24	323	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	354	292	71	11	0	5	55	62	3	4	3	243	369	332	701	89	288	18	16	325	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	321	76	14	0	18	51	67	2	1	0	237	345	449	794	212	241	17	13	345	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA	Reno Aces	—	242	205	48	11	0	5	28	53	3	0	0	234	335	361	696	127	287	22	12	311	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	164	142	18	5	1	1	16	31	6	5	3	127	244	197	441	70	157	19	10	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	97	18	5	0	2	14	28	0	5	0	186	288	299	587	113	239	25	12	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	168	138	27	5	0	5	27	48	1	0	0	196	331	341	672	145	247	29	16	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	302	254	50	11	1	4	39	82	5	1	0	197	315	295	611	98	258	27	13	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	66	55	10	3	0	0	11	26	0	1	0	182	318	236	555	55	343	39	17	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	354	311	60	8	0	5	36	87	3	4	3	193	283	267	550	74	241	25	10	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	335	61	11	0	11	37	84	2	1	0	182	267	313	581	131	198	22	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	242	213	44	9	0	4	20	64	3	0	0	207	284	305	589	99	261	26	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	164	142	18	5	1	1	16	31	6	5	3	127	244	197	441	70	155	19	10	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	—	164	133	29	9	2	1	25	25	6	5	3	218	366	338	704	120	262	15	15	330	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	97	18	5	0	2	14	28	0	5	0	186	288	299	587	113	235	25	12	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	88	24	8	0	2	23	19	0	5	0	273	423	432	855	159	324	17	21	385	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	488	408	81	17	1	10	68	134	6	1	0	199	322	319	640	120	263	27	14	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	488	379	94	20	1	12	97	101	6	1	0	248	409	401	810	153	301	21	20	368	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	420	366	70	11	0	5	47	113	3	5	3	191	288	262	551	71	258	27	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	420	342	81	14	0	5	71	84	3	5	3	237	373	322	694	85	296	20	17	324	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	335	61	11	0	11	37	84	2	1	0	182	267	313	581	131	204	22	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	321	76	14	0	18	51	67	2	1	0	237	345	449	794	212	241	17	13	345	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	242	213	44	9	0	4	20	64	3	0	0	207	284	305	589	99	270	26	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	242	205	48	11	0	5	28	53	3	0	0	234	335	361	696	127	287	22	12	311	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	164	141	18	5	1	1	16	31	6	5	3	128	244	199	442	71	157	19	10	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	97	18	5	0	2	14	28	0	5	0	186	288	299	587	113	239	25	12	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	488	411	81	17	1	10	68	134	6	1	0	197	322	316	638	119	254	27	14	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	420	367	70	11	0	5	47	113	3	5	3	191	288	262	550	71	257	27	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	341	61	11	0	11	37	84	2	1	0	179	267	308	575	129	198	22	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	242	217	44	9	0	4	20	64	3	0	0	203	284	300	583	97	261	26	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	420	367	70	11	0	5	47	113	3	5	3	191	288	262	550	71	257	27	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	341	61	11	0	11	37	84	2	1	0	179	267	308	575	129	198	22	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	242	217	44	9	0	4	20	64	3	0	0	203	284	300	583	97	261	26	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	292	261	54	11	0	6	27	72	2	2	0	208	289	323	612	115	261	25	9	279	75	-9	+0	+1	+5	+6	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	25	23	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	213	294	330	624	117	269	24	8	283	75	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	33%	324	287	61	12	1	7	31	80	3	2	0	210	292	331	623	120	262	25	10	283	77	-9	+0	+1	+6	+7	0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	46%	375	334	72	14	1	9	35	92	3	2	1	212	294	334	628	122	263	25	9	285	79	-9	+0	+2	+7	+8	0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	394	351	75	15	1	9	37	97	3	2	1	213	294	335	629	123	264	25	9	285	79	-10	+0	+2	+7	+9	0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	405	361	77	15	1	9	38	100	3	1	0	213	293	334	627	122	265	25	9	284	79	-10	+0	+1	+7	+9	0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	402	359	76	15	1	9	37	100	3	1	0	212	292	332	623	120	265	25	9	283	77	-11	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	400	357	75	14	1	9	37	101	3	0	0	209	288	324	612	115	263	25	9	278	74	-12	+0	-0	+7	+9	0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	375	335	68	13	0	8	34	96	3	0	0	204	283	314	597	109	259	26	9	272	70	-13	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	33%	107	95	20	4	0	2	10	26	1	1	0	215	297	337	634	122	271	24	9	287	77	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	46%	174	155	33	7	0	4	16	43	1	1	0	217	298	341	639	124	272	25	9	289	79	-4	+0	+1	+3	+4	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	205	182	39	9	0	4	19	50	2	1	0	218	298	342	641	124	273	24	9	290	79	-5	+0	+1	+4	+4	0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	225	200	43	9	0	5	21	55	2	0	0	218	298	341	639	124	273	24	9	289	79	-6	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	226	201	43	9	0	5	21	56	2	0	0	217	296	338	635	122	273	25	9	287	77	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	226	201	43	9	0	5	21	57	2	0	0	213	292	330	623	117	271	25	9	282	74	-7	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	213	190	39	8	0	4	19	54	2	0	0	209	287	320	607	111	267	25	9	276	70	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1376	1224	260	55	0	29	127	341	12	3	0	212	293	328	621	116	268	25	9	286	71	-39	+1	+2	+25	+30	1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	123	26	0	14	60	161	6	1	0	213	293	330	624	118	268	25	9	286	71	-18	+0	+1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4737	4170	842	165	8	98	475	1183	43	26	8	202	290	316	606	114	255	25	10	273	71	-82	+1	+6	+52	+63	4.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	115	23	1	13	65	162	6	4	1	201	289	313	602	112	254	25	10	273	71	-18	+0	+1	+12	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Lou Criger'01-'12 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,522 PA	3.8	2,522	6	31	203*	288*	330*	+44	-1	3.8	4.2
/162	664	2	8	+11.6	-0.3	1.0	pk7: 5
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.1	1,402	31	4	211	288	330	+25	+8	2.4	2.4
/162	664	15	2	+11.9	+3.8	1.1	pk7: 2
#6Malachi Kittridge'01-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,664 PA	2.5	1,664	4	11	219*	281*	319*	+30	+0	1.3	1.3
/162	664	2	4	+11.9	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Cerda (OGILVIE)	24	30→40	35→45	30	60	206/287/320	114	261	5	1	25%	9%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2021 · AA	25	40→38	47→55	37→40	47	206/278/343	137	265	15	3	28%	8%	76	-0.4	202/292/370	168	265	18	5	29%	10%	88	+0.4	186/283/356	170	238	19	4	29%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Wyatt Toregas 2007 · AA	24	47→39	41→45	37→40	44	227/278/328	101	282	9	3	23%	6%	72	-0.7	227/280/342	115	267	12	4	20%	6%	76	-0.4	215/269/335	119	245	15	1	19%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Orlando Mercado 2009 · AA	24	44	42→45	39→40	57	215/308/316	101	247	10	4	17%	11%	81	-0.1	231/299/304	73	267	5	4	14%	8%	74	-0.6	234/295/297	64	268	4	2	14%	8%	69	-0.5
✕Caleb Joseph 2011 · AA	25	44→49	44→50	36→40	43	222/266/337	115	260	13	3	20%	5%	69	-0.9	228/275/341	113	269	12	5	20%	6%	74	-0.6	227/271/365	138	268	16	1	22%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Adam Donachie 2008 · AA	24	42	45	41→30	46	213/279/334	121	275	14	2	27%	8%	74	-0.6	194/261/285	91	265	9	3	28%	8%	56	-1.9	171/241/257	87	234	9	0	29%	8%	41	-1.3
✕Jett Bandy 2015 · AA	25	44	46→50	38→45	44	222/284/350	129	254	14	4	19%	5%	80	-0.2	227/286/361	134	270	16	4	22%	5%	83	+0.1	223/282/358	135	265	17	2	22%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Tyler Ogle 2015 · A	24	45→43	45→50	39→30	54	224/311/349	125	271	13	3	22%	10%	90	+0.6	211/282/359	148	263	18	3	26%	8%	81	-0.1	192/263/353	161	229	22	0	27%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Brett Cumberland 2019 · AA	24	39→41	46→45	38→30	41	191/287/320	129	294	14	2	37%	8%	75	-0.5	199/302/320	121	292	12	3	34%	8%	81	-0.1	177/295/278	101	266	11	1	34%	8%	67	-0.4
✕Ian Rice 2018 · AA	24	39→40	51→50	41→30	50	208/291/361	154	264	19	3	29%	10%	85	+0.2	201/283/316	115	282	12	3	31%	9%	72	-0.7	183/271/276	93	265	9	1	32%	9%	58	-0.9
✕Luis Carpio 2021 · AA	24	46→43	41→45	38→50	47	222/285/321	99	280	8	7	23%	8%	72	-0.7	207/265/299	92	292	7	10	30%	7%	60	-1.6	191/250/276	84	273	7	10	31%	7%	46	-1.3
✕Tony Cruz 2012 · MLB	25	47→39	43→45	38→40	44	229/277/344	114	284	10	3	23%	6%	74	-0.5	225/267/326	101	273	8	4	20%	5%	66	-1.1	214/252/298	84	255	5	0	18%	4%	55	-0.4
✕Michael Paez 2019 · A	24	43	43→40	37→40	46	210/282/321	110	271	10	5	25%	7%	72	-0.7	208/270/297	89	260	7	5	22%	7%	61	-1.5	190/251/254	63	231	4	0	18%	6%	42	-1.7
✕Martín Maldonado 2011 · AAA	24	42→51	41→50	40	41	206/267/299	92	269	9	4	26%	6%	61	-1.5	226/288/344	118	288	13	4	25%	6%	80	-0.2	214/290/359	146	262	18	1	25%	8%	85	+0.1
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2023 · AAA	25	44	50	35→45	37	229/263/382	153	275	18	2	24%	3%	79	-0.2	219/271/352	133	259	17	4	22%	5%	75	-0.5	205/264/324	119	239	16	2	22%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Alvin Colina 2006 · AA	24	45	46→45	38→40	42	226/281/349	122	285	15	5	26%	6%	78	-0.3	206/252/323	117	270	13	4	28%	5%	61	-1.5	207/259/330	123	274	15	3	30%	5%	64	-0.5
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2024 · AA	24	44→41	42→45	43→40	46	214/283/317	104	276	10	4	25%	8%	72	-0.7	219/267/300	81	280	6	5	23%	5%	61	-1.5	225/261/287	62	286	4	2	22%	4%	51	-0.5
✕Scott Manea 2021 · A	25	40→42	46→45	39→30	41	204/281/329	125	266	14	4	28%	6%	75	-0.5	214/297/320	106	302	10	3	30%	9%	78	-0.3	204/295/299	95	291	10	0	30%	10%	69	-0.5
✕John Whittleman 2011 · AA	24	39→45	43→50	40→45	50	194/276/308	114	259	11	3	28%	10%	68	-1.0	190/273/341	151	262	17	3	32%	10%	74	-0.5	172/263/337	164	231	20	1	34%	11%	68	-0.7
✕Niko Vasquez 2012 · AA	23	40→42	44→50	40→45	45	199/272/315	116	271	11	3	30%	8%	67	-1.1	203/267/307	104	267	8	5	26%	8%	63	-1.4	220/276/351	131	285	16	6	28%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Lenyn Sosa 2024 · MLB	24	46→53	49→50	36→40	39	236/269/376	140	287	18	3	25%	4%	79	-0.2	242/274/383	141	292	18	4	23%	4%	83	+0.1	242/273/379	136	290	18	3	23%	3%	81	-0.0

Christian Cerda

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps