Miguel Martinez (P, FCL Cardinals) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Miguel Martinez P FCL Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 143 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%23.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	20	0	24	113	28	15	0	0%	1.2	16.8%	16.6%	0.3%	0.0%	6.00	3.78	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	20	0	24	113	28	15	0	0%	1.2	24.8%	13.3%	11.5%	0.0%	6.00	2.64	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	17	0	27	130	45	16	2	0%	1.6	23.5%	15.4%	8.2%	2.1%	6.67	4.20	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	17	0	27	130	45	16	2	0%	1.6	34.6%	12.3%	22.3%	1.5%	6.67	2.51	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	16	0	19	77	24	5	2	0%	1.2	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	3.6%	4.82	4.33	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	16	0	19	77	24	5	2	0%	1.2	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	3.6%	4.82	4.33	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	16	0	19	77	24	5	2	0%	1.2	31.2%	6.5%	24.7%	2.6%	4.82	2.73	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	5	0	5	21	1	3	0	0%	1.0	4.8%	14.3%	-9.5%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	5	0	5	21	1	3	0	0%	1.0	4.8%	14.3%	-9.5%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	5	0	5	21	1	3	0	0%	1.0	4.8%	14.3%	-9.5%	0.0%	0.00	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	19	0	20	84	20	7	3	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.7%	15.2%	3.0%	4.24	4.20	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	9	0	9	38	9	3	1	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.7%	15.2%	3.0%	4.24	4.20	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	3	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.7%	15.2%	3.0%	4.24	3.82	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	70	23	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.7%	15.2%	3.0%	4.24	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		58	0	75	341	67	48	5	0%	1.3	19.6%	14.1%	5.6%	1.6%	5.54	4.11	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	0	200	913	179	129	15	0%	1.3	19.6%	14.1%	5.6%	1.6%	5.54	4.11	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	23.3%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.20	23.8%	15.2%	20	-0.10	—	—	—
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	90
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Chris Ray R 2005 · 3.68 FIP	23	SU	3.68	24.7%	8.6%	2.9%	.261	4.32	21.3%	12.1%	109	+0.64	3.48	281	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	87
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	87
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	87
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	86
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	86
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	86
Jake Bray R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.1%	7.7%	1.8%	.245	4.56	21.4%	10.8%	158	+1.28	2.51	198	86
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	85
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	85
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	85
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.05	20.5%	11.4%	128	+2.53	3.52	207	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	84
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	84
Henry Alberto Rodriguez R 2010 · 3.15 FIP	23	SU	3.15	27.3%	10.7%	1.8%	.315	4.03	21.3%	5.5%	117	+0.88	3.15	145	83