Calvin Harris
C Birmingham Barons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+CWS | 288 | .220/.305/.303 | 2 | 0 | 27 | — | .170/.228/.234 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/ACWS | 340 | .266/.335/.351 | 3 | 8 | 64 | — | .235/.285/.308 |
| 2026 | 24 | AA/A+/ROKCWS | 207 | .261/.364/.426 | 6 | 4 | 72 | — | .213/.286/.341 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBCWS | 2 | .216/.276/.314 | 0 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBCWS | 53 | .218/.279/.321 | 1 | 1 | 69 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBCWS | 89 | .218/.280/.323 | 2 | 1 | 70 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 130 | 108 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 364 | 315 | 679 | 74 | 294 | 18 | 15 | 317 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 286 | 552 | 71 | 333 | 33 | 7 | 253 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 288 | 254 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 66 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 305 | 303 | 608 | 83 | 286 | 23 | 10 | 279 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 205 | 186 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 319 | 312 | 630 | 59 | 333 | 24 | 8 | 290 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 135 | 119 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 286 | 361 | 412 | 773 | 126 | 367 | 22 | 10 | 342 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 148 | 126 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 222 | 327 | 349 | 676 | 127 | 253 | 19 | 14 | 308 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 41 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 389 | 463 | 694 | 1.158 | 306 | 400 | 10 | 12 | 498 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 18 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 286 | 444 | 429 | 873 | 143 | 400 | 22 | 22 | 398 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 130 | 113 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 212 | 310 | 274 | 584 | 62 | 277 | 24 | 12 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 15 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 214 | 414 | 71 | 262 | 47 | 7 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 288 | 265 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 91 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 228 | 234 | 462 | 64 | 242 | 32 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 205 | 191 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 236 | 284 | 293 | 578 | 58 | 321 | 29 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 135 | 124 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 234 | 286 | 331 | 616 | 97 | 334 | 30 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 148 | 133 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 188 | 265 | 286 | 551 | 98 | 219 | 23 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 41 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 366 | 579 | 945 | 263 | 323 | 12 | 7 | 386 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 18 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 278 | 250 | 528 | 62 | 291 | 33 | 11 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 145 | 128 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 203 | 292 | 266 | 557 | 62 | 278 | 26 | 10 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 145 | 122 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 354 | 311 | 666 | 74 | 298 | 19 | 14 | 311 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 288 | 265 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 91 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 228 | 234 | 462 | 64 | 246 | 32 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 288 | 254 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 66 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 305 | 303 | 608 | 83 | 286 | 23 | 10 | 279 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 340 | 315 | 73 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 100 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 232 | 282 | 302 | 583 | 70 | 326 | 29 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 340 | 305 | 81 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 80 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 266 | 335 | 351 | 686 | 85 | 347 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 207 | 187 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 214 | 286 | 342 | 629 | 128 | 254 | 22 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 207 | 176 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 261 | 364 | 426 | 790 | 165 | 296 | 17 | 14 | 353 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 145 | 128 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 203 | 292 | 266 | 557 | 62 | 275 | 26 | 10 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 288 | 266 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 91 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 228 | 233 | 461 | 64 | 242 | 32 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 340 | 315 | 73 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 100 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 232 | 282 | 302 | 583 | 70 | 326 | 29 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 207 | 186 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 215 | 286 | 344 | 630 | 129 | 246 | 22 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 288 | 266 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 91 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 228 | 233 | 461 | 64 | 242 | 32 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 340 | 315 | 73 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 100 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 232 | 282 | 302 | 583 | 70 | 326 | 29 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 207 | 186 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 215 | 286 | 344 | 630 | 129 | 246 | 22 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | CWS | 2% | 257 | 236 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 215 | 276 | 312 | 588 | 97 | 278 | 25 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | CWS | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 276 | 314 | 590 | 98 | 279 | 50 | 0 | 267 | 66 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 31% | 170 | 155 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 279 | 319 | 598 | 102 | 279 | 25 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 42% | 211 | 192 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 280 | 321 | 601 | 103 | 279 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 31% | 53 | 49 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 279 | 321 | 601 | 103 | 280 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 69 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 42% | 89 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 280 | 323 | 604 | 105 | 280 | 26 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 142 | 131 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 221 | 282 | 328 | 610 | 107 | 283 | 25 | 8 | 272 | 59 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 133 | 23 | 0 | 14 | 50 | 165 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 222 | 282 | 330 | 612 | 108 | 283 | 25 | 8 | 272 | 59 | -24 | +2 | +0 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1484 | 1354 | 285 | 46 | 7 | 20 | 108 | 401 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 210 | 273 | 299 | 572 | 89 | 281 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +9 | +11 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 125 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 47 | 176 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 211 | 273 | 300 | 573 | 89 | 281 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -24 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AABirmingham Barons · 148 PAwOBA .302 → .246 (−56)K% 18.9% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 9.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 17.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .302 → .246; ISO .127 → .106; BABIP .253 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 41 PAwOBA .484 → .386 (−98)K% 9.8% → 12.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 12.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 7.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 18.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 11.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 5.38% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .484 → .386; ISO .306 → .256; BABIP .400 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL White Sox · 18 PAwOBA .389 → .258 (−131)K% 22.2% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 13.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 15.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 13.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .389 → .258; ISO .143 → .096; BABIP .400 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABirmingham Barons · 205 PAwOBA .284 → .253 (−31)K% 24.4% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.39% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.80% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 28.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.68% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 3.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .284 → .253; ISO .059 → .057; BABIP .333 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 135 PAwOBA .338 → .278 (−60)K% 22.2% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.009 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.37% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.97% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 25.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.37% | ÷1.091 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 2.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.853 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.03% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 118, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .338 → .278; ISO .126 → .105; BABIP .367 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 288 PAwOBA .275 → .208 (−67)K% 22.9% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.92% | ÷0.952 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.72% | ÷1.006 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.81% | ÷0.972 | ×0.870 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 19.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.85% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.817 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 86, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .275 → .208; ISO .083 → .067; BABIP .286 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 130 PAwOBA .312 → .266 (−46)K% 17.7% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.69% | ÷1.004 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.951 | ×0.690 | — | — | 11.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.71% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.044 | — | 23.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×1.044 | — | 2.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.988 | ×0.910 | ×1.044 | — | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.861 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.09% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 98, K 101, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .312 → .266; ISO .074 → .065; BABIP .294 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL White Sox · 15 PAwOBA .246 → .153 (−93)K% 33.3% → 48.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.994 | ×1.440 | — | — | 48.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.951 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 4.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 17.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.942 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 8.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷2.194 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 339, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 120, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .246 → .153; ISO .071 → .042; BABIP .333 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).