Rafael Mendez — OGILVIE

Rafael Mendez P DSL Pirates Gold

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%23.3%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	22	0	29	136	12	17	3	0%	1.3	6.0%	15.6%	-9.6%	3.4%	3.38	6.46	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	22	0	29	136	12	17	3	0%	1.3	8.8%	12.5%	-3.7%	2.2%	3.38	5.35	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	14	0	29	133	28	17	2	0%	2.0	14.3%	16.0%	-1.7%	1.9%	5.34	4.95	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	14	0	29	133	28	17	2	0%	2.0	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	1.5%	5.34	3.83	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	18	0	22	114	30	18	0	0%	1.2	17.9%	19.7%	-1.8%	0.0%	6.65	4.09	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	18	0	22	114	30	18	0	0%	1.2	26.3%	15.8%	10.5%	0.0%	6.65	2.82	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	14	0	23	92	30	9	1	0%	1.6	22.2%	12.2%	9.9%	1.8%	2.74	3.76	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	14	0	23	92	30	9	1	0%	1.6	22.2%	12.2%	9.9%	1.8%	2.74	3.76	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	14	0	23	92	30	9	1	0%	1.6	32.6%	9.8%	22.8%	1.1%	2.74	2.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	—	13	0	14	59	14	6	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	—	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.35	4.32	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	—	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.35	4.32	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	3	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.35	3.94	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	70	23	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.35	3.94	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		68	0	103	475	68	76	9	0%	1.5	14.3%	16.1%	-1.7%	1.9%	4.47	4.95	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	925	132	149	17	0%	1.5	14.3%	16.1%	-1.7%	1.9%	4.47	4.95	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	23.3%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.32	23.7%	14.2%	20	-0.09	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	91
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	89
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	88
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	87
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	87
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	86
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	86
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	85
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	85
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	85
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	85
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.50	21.7%	10.0%	142	+0.88	3.62	311	85
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	84
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.05	20.5%	11.4%	128	+2.53	3.52	207	84
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	84
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	84
Fernando Salas R 2010 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	21.8%	9.8%	3.2%	.276	3.29	23.5%	16.8%	162	-0.98	2.60	539	84
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.55	20.8%	8.6%	123	+0.76	3.77	245	84