Josh Hartle
P
Akron RubberDucks
+1.3
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'6" / 207 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.1 · 2030
ERA4.22
FIP4.22
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%11.5%
IP103
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.1peak
2030
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 16.20 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 24 | 24 | 113 | 459 | 107 | 39 | 2 | 18.5% | 10.2% | 0.6% | 2.54 | 3.16 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 3 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 1.9% | 2.45 | 3.63 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 92 | 42 | 10 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 118 | 499 | 109 | 48 | 11 | 21.9% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 112 | 47 | 12 | 21.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 4.15 | 4.11 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 135 | 572 | 127 | 50 | 14 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 135 | 52 | 15 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.06 | 4.04 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 137 | 53 | 15 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.06 | 4.05 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 137 | 53 | 15 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.07 | 4.08 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 133 | 53 | 15 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.12 | +1.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 128 | 52 | 15 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 122 | 51 | 15 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +1.6 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 127 | 538 | 116 | 49 | 15 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.35 | +1.4 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 109 | 48 | 15 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 102 | 47 | 14 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 94 | 45 | 14 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 102 | 430 | 86 | 43 | 14 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 27 | 130 | 532 | 101 | 55 | 4 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.71 | 3.21 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 821 | 156 | 85 | 6 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.71 | 3.21 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Hartle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 2.4% | — | 4.06 | 22.1% | 13.3% | 400 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 93 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 93 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 92 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 92 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 92 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 92 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 216 | +1.13 | 3.39 | 448 | 91 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 90 |
| Tyler Thomas L 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.37 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.8% | .255 | 3.52 | 24.2% | 14.6% | 54 | +0.15 | 2.75 | 279 | 90 |
| Gage Jump L 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 113 | 90 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 90 |
| Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.15 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .299 | 5.76 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.61 | 3.15 | 248 | 89 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 89 |
| Kevin Smith L 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.25 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 1.4% | .337 | 5.79 | 21.5% | 5.1% | 131 | +2.54 | 3.25 | 248 | 89 |
| Jackson Kent L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 89 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.34 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.02 | 280 | 88 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 88 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.5% | .329 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 171 | +0.50 | 3.56 | 280 | 88 |
| D.J. Snelten L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.7% | .349 | 3.35 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 217 | -0.13 | 3.25 | 373 | 88 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.0 | $17M | +$17M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.1 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.9 | $18M | +$14M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.7 | $17M | +$11M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.6 | $16M | +$8M |
| Totals | $21M | $106M | +$85M | ||