Josh Hartle

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 LHP 6'6" / 207 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#285ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	APIT	1	0	2	16.20	2.50	20.0%	10.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 2.68
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	24	113	2.54	2.47	23.3%	8.5%	—	K 18.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.16
2026	23	AAWSH	25	24	123	3.45	3.38	22.1%	9.4%	—	K 17.9% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.04
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	1	1	3	4.49	4.49	18.0%	9.5%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBWSH	9	9	51	4.39	4.34	19.3%	8.9%	0.6
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBWSH	12	12	71	4.32	4.28	19.9%	8.8%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Arb-2$1M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 8.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsBrandon Schaeffer (age 23) · Erik Bedard (age 25) · Juan Pablo Oramas (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%18.0%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP143

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$37M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$14M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.68	—
2024	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.68	—
2024	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.50	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	0.6%	2.54	3.16	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	0.6%	2.54	3.16	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	0.4%	2.54	2.47	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	25	24	123	520	115	49	9	96%	4.9	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	2.1%	3.45	4.04	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	25	24	123	520	115	49	9	96%	4.9	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	2.1%	3.45	4.04	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	25	24	123	520	115	49	9	96%	4.9	22.1%	9.4%	12.7%	1.7%	3.45	3.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	2.4%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	115	487	94	43	12	100%	5.8	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.5%	4.39	4.34	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	106	448	89	39	11	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.8%	11.2%	2.5%	4.32	4.28	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	101	425	85	37	11	100%	5.9	20.0%	8.8%	11.3%	2.6%	4.32	4.32	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	95	402	80	36	11	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	2.7%	4.37	4.40	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	88	373	73	34	11	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.1%	10.6%	2.8%	4.47	4.53	+0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	80	338	65	32	10	100%	6.2	19.4%	9.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.61	4.71	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	302	57	30	10	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.91	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	63	267	49	27	9	100%	5.8	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	3.5%	5.00	5.14	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	51	215	41	19	5	100%	5.7	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.5%	4.39	4.34	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	71	300	60	26	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.8%	11.2%	2.5%	4.32	4.28	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	78	329	66	29	9	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.8%	11.3%	2.6%	4.32	4.32	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	80	338	67	30	9	100%	6.2	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	2.7%	4.37	4.40	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	77	325	64	30	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.1%	10.6%	2.8%	4.47	4.53	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	72	304	59	29	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.61	4.71	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	66	279	53	27	9	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.91	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	59	249	46	25	9	100%	5.9	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	3.5%	5.00	5.14	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	92	554	2337	456	215	67	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.52	4.19	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	78	24	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.52	4.19	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		50	48	238	989	180	102	14	96%	4.8	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	1.4%	3.11	3.62	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	832	152	86	11	96%	4.8	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	1.4%	3.11	3.62	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 123 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.04 (+0.66)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.12%	—	×0.810	17.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.42%	—	×1.100	10.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 103 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.16 (+0.70)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.04%	—	×0.770	18.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.89%	—	×1.150	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.48%	÷1.011	×1.250	0.59%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 10 IPFIP 2.31 → 2.63 (+0.32)K% 16.3% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.28%	—	×0.810	13.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.65%	—	×1.100	5.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.926	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.31 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Hartle (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	4.31	19.7%	10.9%	322	-0.18	—	—	—
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	91
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	88
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	87
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	87
Tyler DeLoach L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	19.0%	10.1%	2.6%	.332	2.96	21.7%	12.4%	63	-1.26	2.96	202	86
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	85
Reid Love L 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	13.8%	6.8%	2.7%	.293	3.74	15.2%	9.0%	140	-0.55	3.66	280	85
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	85
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	84
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	84
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	84
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	84
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	83
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	83
Jonathan Dziedzic L 2015 · 4.01 FIP	24	SP	4.01	13.1%	6.7%	2.1%	.293	4.27	15.3%	6.1%	325	+0.26	3.88	522	83
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	83
Jeriome Robertson L 2003 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	13.9%	7.9%	3.2%	.295	7.27	8.0%	-1.3%	14	+2.57	4.70	175	82
Nick Raquet L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	16.8%	8.9%	2.7%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	434	82
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	82
Logan Boyd L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	14.9%	10.2%	1.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	276	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	96	19.3%	9.2%	1.06	4.49
Wily Peralta ('22)	4.6	91	16.7%	9.1%	1.09	4.29
Mike Bielecki ('84-'97, 9 WAR*)	6.2	95	18.4%*	9.1%*	1.15*	4.47*
Tom Gorzelanny ('16)	4.4	88	18.4%	10.0%	1.00	4.40
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Kelly Downs ('86-'93, 6 WAR*)	4.8	120	18.6%*	8.9%*	0.95*	4.52*
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*