Josh Hartle — OGILVIE

Josh Hartle P Akron RubberDucks

Age 23 LHP 6'6" / 207 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%18.7%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—60

CMD4055

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.68	—
2024	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.50	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	0.6%	2.54	3.16	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	0.4%	2.54	2.47	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	16	16	77	348	69	32	8	100%	4.8	16.1%	10.1%	5.9%	2.8%	4.58	4.54	+0.3
ROS	23	MLB	CLE	12	12	65	274	51	25	6	100%	5.4	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	2.4%	4.36	4.36	+0.2
ROS	23	MLB	CLE	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	2.4%	4.36	4.36	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	CLE	—	—	141	622	120	57	14	—	—	19.3%	9.2%	10.1%	2.3%	4.48	4.46	+1.6
2026 FULL	23	MLB	CLE	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	2.4%	4.36	3.98	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CLE	24	24	137	577	115	49	14	100%	5.7	19.9%	8.6%	11.4%	2.4%	4.26	4.20	+1.9
2028	25	MLB	CLE	24	24	138	584	120	48	14	100%	5.8	20.6%	8.2%	12.4%	2.4%	4.17	4.11	+2.1
2029	26	MLB	CLE	23	23	138	584	122	48	14	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.2%	12.8%	2.5%	4.13	4.09	+2.1
2030	27	MLB	CLE	23	23	136	575	121	47	15	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.2%	12.7%	2.5%	4.14	4.14	+2.0
2031	28	MLB	CLE	22	22	132	558	116	47	15	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.4%	12.5%	2.6%	4.19	4.22	+1.8
2032	29	MLB	CLE	21	21	126	533	110	46	15	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	2.8%	4.29	4.35	+1.5
2033	30	MLB	CLE	20	20	119	501	101	45	15	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.53	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	CLE	18	18	111	467	93	43	15	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.61	4.73	+0.9
2035	32	MLB	CLE	17	17	102	432	84	42	15	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.4%	4.82	4.96	+0.5
2036	33	MLB	CLE	16	16	94	396	75	40	15	100%	5.9	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	3.7%	5.05	5.21	+0.1
2037	34	MLB	CLE	14	14	85	361	66	38	15	100%	6.1	18.4%	10.6%	7.7%	4.0%	5.31	5.48	-0.4
2027	24	MLB	CLE	11	11	60	253	51	22	6	100%	5.5	19.9%	8.6%	11.4%	2.4%	4.26	4.20	+0.2
2028	25	MLB	CLE	16	16	92	388	80	32	9	100%	5.8	20.6%	8.2%	12.4%	2.4%	4.17	4.11	+1.2
2029	26	MLB	CLE	18	18	110	464	97	38	11	100%	6.1	20.9%	8.2%	12.8%	2.5%	4.13	4.09	+1.7
2030	27	MLB	CLE	19	19	116	490	103	40	12	100%	6.1	21.0%	8.2%	12.7%	2.5%	4.14	4.14	+1.7
2031	28	MLB	CLE	20	20	118	498	104	42	13	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.4%	12.5%	2.6%	4.19	4.22	+1.6
2032	29	MLB	CLE	19	19	115	486	100	42	13	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	2.8%	4.29	4.35	+1.4
2033	30	MLB	CLE	18	18	109	460	93	41	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.53	+1.1
2034	31	MLB	CLE	17	17	103	435	86	40	14	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.61	4.73	+0.8
2035	32	MLB	CLE	16	16	96	405	79	39	14	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.4%	4.82	4.96	+0.4
2036	33	MLB	CLE	15	15	89	376	71	38	14	100%	5.9	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	3.7%	5.04	5.20	-0.0
2037	34	MLB	CLE	13	13	77	325	60	34	13	100%	5.9	18.4%	10.6%	7.7%	4.0%	5.30	5.47	-0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			182	182	1087	4591	925	409	134	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.9%	11.2%	2.9%	4.46	4.13	+16.1
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	170	75	25	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.9%	11.2%	2.9%	4.46	4.13	+3.0
Career	—			41	40	192	817	143	83	12	98%	4.7	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	1.5%	3.47	3.74	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			43	42	200	853	149	87	13	98%	4.7	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	1.5%	3.47	3.74	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Hartle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	18.7%	9.2%	2.4%	—	4.13	20.5%	12.2%	413	-0.23	—	—	—
Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.1%	9.9%	2.7%	.283	3.84	18.1%	10.2%	325	-0.33	3.66	437	92
Brandon Schaeffer L 2026 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	134	91
Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	20.3%	10.4%	2.8%	.301	6.14	17.6%	4.8%	71	+1.88	4.26	176	89
Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	19.9%	10.7%	1.8%	.329	4.10	17.7%	6.7%	171	+0.37	3.73	280	88
David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.6%	8.8%	1.8%	.303	5.56	16.0%	8.2%	78	+2.01	3.08	517	88
D.J. Snelten L 2026 · 3.50 FIP	23	SP	3.50	18.5%	7.8%	1.8%	.349	3.38	17.3%	8.4%	217	-0.12	3.24	373	87
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2028 · 3.95 FIP	25	SP	3.95	16.5%	8.6%	2.1%	.313	3.78	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.17	3.37	440	86
Kevin Smith L 2025 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	21.2%	9.2%	1.3%	.337	5.79	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.60	3.19	248	86
Damon Jones L 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP	4.16	18.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.321	3.96	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.20	3.85	269	85
Mitch Horacek L 2026 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP	4.49	17.1%	9.1%	3.1%	.306	3.79	17.9%	8.6%	248	-0.70	3.12	466	85
Tyler DeLoach L 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	19.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.332	2.97	21.7%	12.4%	63	-1.27	2.97	202	85
Michael Velasquez L 2026 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP	3.87	16.7%	6.6%	2.5%	.350	5.26	10.3%	2.8%	88	+1.39	3.87	201	85
Adam Scott L 2026 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	20.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.318	5.02	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.49	4.53	315	85
Scott Moss L 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	15.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.307	4.13	24.1%	9.8%	151	-0.16	3.68	457	85
Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP	4.60	20.6%	10.9%	3.4%	.269	5.90	20.7%	8.4%	87	+1.30	4.60	308	85
Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.7%	6.7%	2.9%	.258	4.26	18.7%	10.2%	92	+0.11	4.15	200	85
David Peterson L 2026 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	19.8%	8.2%	2.1%	.333	3.77	24.8%	14.4%	248	+0.15	2.80	1,080	84
Nick Raquet L 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	16.8%	8.9%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	421	84
Tyler Thomas L 2025 · 3.25 FIP	22	SP	3.25	19.3%	7.3%	1.6%	.255	3.43	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.18	2.75	279	84
Anthony Banda L 2026 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	19.7%	9.7%	2.5%	.315	4.10	21.5%	12.1%	85	+0.07	2.98	876	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	121	20.0%	8.9%	1.10	4.43
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	9	125	18.6%	7.3%	1.03	4.25
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Dallas Keuchel ('23)	9	132	18.7%	7.3%	0.96	3.97