Josh Hartle — OGILVIE

Josh Hartle P Harrisburg Senators

Age 23 LHP 6'6" / 207 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION123 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%18.7%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—60

CMD4055

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$21M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.68	—
2024	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.68	—
2024	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.50	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	0.6%	2.54	3.16	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	0.6%	2.54	3.16	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	0.4%	2.54	2.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	25	24	123	520	115	49	9	96%	4.9	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	2.1%	3.45	4.04	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	25	24	123	520	115	49	9	96%	4.9	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	2.1%	3.45	4.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	WSH	25	24	123	520	115	49	9	96%	4.9	22.1%	9.4%	12.7%	1.7%	3.45	3.38	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	WSH	2	2	10	44	8	4	1	100%	5.2	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	2.4%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	133	564	123	53	10	—	—	21.9%	9.4%	12.4%	1.8%	3.52	4.07	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	137	577	115	50	14	100%	5.7	19.9%	8.7%	11.3%	2.4%	4.27	4.21	+1.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	138	584	120	49	14	100%	5.8	20.6%	8.3%	12.3%	2.4%	4.18	4.12	+1.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	138	584	122	48	14	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	2.5%	4.14	4.10	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	136	575	121	48	15	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.3%	12.7%	2.5%	4.15	4.15	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	132	558	116	47	15	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.5%	12.4%	2.6%	4.20	4.23	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	126	533	110	46	15	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.36	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	119	501	101	45	15	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.0%	11.3%	3.0%	4.44	4.54	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	111	467	93	44	15	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.3%	10.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.74	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	102	432	84	42	15	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.4%	4.83	4.97	-0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	94	396	75	40	15	100%	5.9	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	3.7%	5.06	5.22	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	60	253	51	22	6	100%	5.5	19.9%	8.7%	11.3%	2.4%	4.27	4.21	+0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	92	388	80	32	9	100%	5.8	20.6%	8.3%	12.3%	2.4%	4.18	4.12	+0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	110	464	97	38	11	100%	6.1	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	2.5%	4.14	4.10	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	116	490	103	41	12	100%	6.1	21.0%	8.3%	12.7%	2.5%	4.15	4.15	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	118	498	104	42	13	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.5%	12.4%	2.6%	4.20	4.23	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	115	486	100	42	13	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.36	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	109	460	93	41	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.0%	11.3%	3.0%	4.44	4.54	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	103	435	86	41	14	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.3%	10.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.74	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	96	405	79	39	14	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.4%	4.83	4.97	-0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	89	376	71	38	14	100%	5.9	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	3.7%	5.06	5.22	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	169	1009	4260	864	377	121	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.07	+9.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	75	24	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		50	48	238	989	180	102	14	96%	4.8	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	1.4%	3.11	3.62	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	832	152	86	11	96%	4.8	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	1.4%	3.11	3.62	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Hartle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	18.7%	9.3%	2.4%	—	4.14	20.5%	12.1%	413	-0.24	—	—	—
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	92
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	92
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	91
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	88
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	88
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	88
D.J. Snelten L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	23	SP	3.49	18.5%	7.8%	1.8%	.349	3.34	17.3%	8.4%	217	-0.15	3.25	373	87
Kevin Smith L 2019 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	21.2%	9.2%	1.4%	.337	5.78	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.52	3.26	248	86
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	86
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	86
Caleb Franzen L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	16.2%	10.1%	2.0%	.336	5.82	12.6%	0.2%	42	+1.72	4.10	155	85
Tyler DeLoach L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	19.0%	10.1%	2.6%	.332	2.96	21.7%	12.4%	63	-1.26	2.96	202	85
Michael Velasquez L 2016 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	16.7%	6.6%	2.5%	.350	5.07	10.3%	2.8%	88	+1.16	3.91	201	85
Scott Moss L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	15.3%	8.4%	2.7%	.307	3.97	24.1%	9.8%	151	-0.39	3.83	457	85
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.67	279	84
Anthony Banda L 2017 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	19.7%	9.7%	2.6%	.315	4.19	21.5%	12.1%	85	+0.10	2.89	876	84
Michael Prosecky L 2023 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	20.4%	10.7%	1.0%	.293	4.73	18.3%	4.9%	176	+1.47	3.26	285	84
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	84
Mitch Horacek L 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP	4.75	17.1%	9.1%	3.5%	.306	3.97	17.9%	8.6%	248	-0.78	3.21	466	84
Jared Poche L 2018 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	14.2%	6.9%	2.4%	.294	5.93	13.4%	-1.8%	25	+1.84	4.09	156	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.8	124	20.1%	8.9%	1.07	4.38
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14