Jared Kelley

P Birmingham Barons

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	30	52	4.47	4.21	17.8%	14.5%	—	K 14.3% · BB 16.3% · FIP 5.19
2025	23	MIX2 levels	38	48	3.19	2.87	26.2%	11.4%	—	K 19.7% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.25
2026	24	MIX2 levels	15	21	9.58	5.33	20.6%	15.9%	—	K 14.0% · BB 17.7% · FIP 5.68
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	14	15	5.40	5.40	18.0%	14.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCWS	18	19	5.26	5.23	19.2%	14.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsAndrew McInvale (age 25) · Francisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Grant Black (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%18.0%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%3.2%

Proj IP15

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	24	126	27	26	3	100%	2.0	16.5%	23.2%	-6.7%	1.3%	7.61	5.33	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	24	126	27	26	3	100%	2.0	21.4%	20.6%	0.8%	2.4%	7.61	5.76	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	77	328	71	47	8	100%	3.7	15.6%	16.9%	-1.3%	2.4%	3.52	5.22	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	77	328	71	47	8	100%	3.7	21.6%	14.3%	7.3%	2.4%	3.52	4.44	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	5	65	312	75	54	5	18%	2.3	18.9%	19.4%	-0.6%	1.9%	7.48	5.03	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	5	65	312	75	54	5	18%	2.3	24.0%	17.3%	6.7%	1.6%	7.48	4.28	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	52	242	43	35	3	0%	1.7	14.3%	16.3%	-2.0%	2.3%	4.47	5.19	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	52	242	43	35	3	0%	1.7	14.3%	16.3%	-2.0%	2.3%	4.47	5.19	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	52	242	43	35	3	0%	1.7	17.8%	14.5%	3.3%	1.2%	4.47	4.21	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	202	53	23	2	0%	1.3	19.7%	14.3%	5.3%	1.8%	3.19	4.25	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	202	53	23	2	0%	1.3	19.7%	14.3%	5.3%	1.8%	3.19	4.25	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	202	53	23	2	0%	1.3	26.2%	11.4%	14.9%	1.0%	3.19	2.87	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	21	107	22	17	3	0%	1.4	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	2.8%	9.58	5.68	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	21	107	22	17	3	0%	1.4	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	2.8%	9.58	5.68	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	21	107	22	17	3	0%	1.4	20.6%	15.9%	4.7%	2.8%	9.58	5.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	14	0	15	63	11	9	2	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.8%	3.2%	2.9%	5.40	5.40	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	41	0	43	182	35	26	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	14.2%	5.0%	2.9%	5.26	5.23	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	18	0	19	80	15	11	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	14.2%	5.0%	2.9%	5.26	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	80	15	11	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	14.2%	5.0%	2.9%	5.26	4.85	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	116	21	0%	1.1	19.2%	14.2%	5.0%	2.9%	5.26	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		144	38	286	1317	220	233	27	26%	2.0	16.7%	17.7%	-0.9%	2.1%	5.31	5.07	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	27	200	920	154	162	19	26%	2.0	16.7%	17.7%	-0.9%	2.1%	5.31	5.07	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Kelley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	18.0%	14.8%	2.9%	—	5.23	19.2%	5.0%	43	-0.17	—	—	—
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	81
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	81
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	81
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	81
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	79
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	78
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	77
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	77
Jimmy Joyce R 2024 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	17.8%	14.2%	1.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	259	77
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	77
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	77
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	77
Walker Brockhouse R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	18.7%	14.7%	3.2%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	126	77
Sean Wymer R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	25	SU	4.71	18.2%	14.1%	2.5%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	4.18	188	76
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	76
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	18.9%	14.3%	1.11	5.30
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*