Aldrin Lucas

C ACL Royals

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AKC	72	.143/.333/.161	0	2	17	—	.102/.264/.119
2024	21	ROKKC	82	.318/.438/.439	1	1	78	—	.239/.325/.338
2025	22	AKC	36	.103/.278/.172	0	0	3	—	.097/.222/.161
2025	22	ROKKC	51	.372/.460/.442	1	0	88	—	.283/.340/.348
2027PROJ0% MLB	24	MLBKC	200	.206/.279/.297	3	3	64	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBKC	39	.207/.280/.304	1	0	68	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBKC	104	.210/.283/.312	2	1	71	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

wRC+90

wOBA86

K%79

Whiff%58

BB%51

Z-Con%41

CompsDavid Sheaffer (age 24) · Sam Praytor (age 25) · Dylan Neuse (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .277 / .295

PA76

HR1

K%29

BB%8

ISO91

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL Royals White	—	120	98	19	1	0	1	12	21	4	2	2	194	304	235	539	41	228	18	10	251	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL KC Glass	—	119	94	20	1	1	3	19	28	4	2	0	213	368	340	708	128	266	24	16	327	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	95	73	22	5	0	1	18	18	4	5	0	301	463	411	874	110	389	19	19	405	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	72	56	8	1	0	0	10	22	6	2	1	143	333	161	494	18	235	31	14	264	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	ACL Royals	—	82	66	21	3	1	1	12	12	2	1	2	318	438	439	877	121	370	15	15	389	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	36	29	3	0	1	0	7	8	0	0	0	103	278	172	450	69	143	22	19	231	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	ACL Royals	—	51	43	16	0	0	1	7	8	0	0	0	372	460	442	902	70	429	16	14	403	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals White	—	120	102	14	1	0	1	9	26	4	2	2	137	235	176	411	39	147	22	8	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	—	119	100	14	1	1	2	13	34	4	2	0	140	265	230	495	90	165	29	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	95	80	18	4	0	1	11	26	4	5	0	225	347	312	660	87	299	27	12	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	72	59	6	1	0	0	7	31	6	2	1	102	264	119	383	17	212	43	10	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	82	71	17	2	1	1	7	17	2	1	2	239	325	338	663	99	277	21	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	36	31	3	0	1	0	5	11	0	0	0	97	222	161	384	65	126	31	14	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	51	46	13	0	0	1	4	12	0	0	0	283	340	348	688	65	334	24	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals White	—	120	102	14	1	0	1	9	26	4	2	2	137	235	176	411	39	167	22	8	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals White	—	120	98	19	1	0	1	12	21	4	2	2	194	304	235	539	41	228	18	10	251	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	—	119	100	14	1	1	2	13	34	4	2	0	140	265	230	495	90	185	29	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL KC Glass	—	119	94	20	1	1	3	19	28	4	2	0	213	368	340	708	128	266	24	16	327	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	95	80	18	4	0	1	11	26	4	5	0	225	347	312	660	87	321	27	12	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	—	95	73	22	5	0	1	18	18	4	5	0	301	463	411	874	110	389	19	19	405	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	154	130	23	3	1	1	14	48	8	3	3	177	296	238	535	62	268	31	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	154	122	29	4	1	1	22	34	8	3	3	238	388	311	700	74	318	22	14	330	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	87	77	15	0	1	1	9	23	0	0	0	195	279	260	539	65	259	26	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	87	72	19	0	1	1	14	16	0	0	0	264	384	333	717	69	321	18	16	332	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals White	—	120	106	14	1	0	1	9	26	4	2	2	132	235	170	405	38	147	22	8	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	—	119	101	14	1	1	2	13	34	4	2	0	139	265	228	493	89	165	29	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	95	80	18	4	0	1	11	26	4	5	0	225	347	312	660	87	299	27	12	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	154	131	23	3	1	1	14	48	8	3	3	176	296	237	533	61	247	31	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	87	78	15	0	1	1	9	23	0	0	0	192	279	256	535	64	248	26	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	154	131	23	3	1	1	14	48	8	3	3	176	296	237	533	61	247	31	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	87	78	15	0	1	1	9	23	0	0	0	192	279	256	535	64	248	26	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	0%	200	180	37	6	1	3	15	58	3	3	1	206	279	297	576	91	286	29	8	263	64	-8	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	30%	131	118	25	4	1	2	10	38	2	2	1	209	282	309	591	99	287	29	8	269	68	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	44%	235	212	45	7	2	4	18	67	3	3	1	212	285	317	602	105	287	29	8	273	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	49%	299	269	57	9	2	5	24	85	4	3	1	213	286	319	605	107	286	28	8	274	72	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	51%	340	306	64	10	2	6	27	96	4	3	1	212	285	319	604	107	286	28	8	274	72	-11	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	51%	359	324	68	11	2	6	28	101	4	2	1	212	284	317	601	106	284	28	8	273	71	-12	+0	-1	+6	+8	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	51%	370	334	69	11	2	6	29	106	4	1	1	208	280	309	590	101	282	29	8	268	68	-14	-0	-2	+7	+8	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	30%	39	35	7	1	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	207	280	304	584	96	285	28	8	266	68	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	44%	104	94	20	3	1	2	8	30	1	1	0	210	283	312	594	102	285	29	8	270	71	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	49%	146	131	27	4	1	2	12	41	2	2	1	210	284	313	597	103	285	28	8	271	72	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	51%	175	157	33	5	1	3	14	49	2	1	1	210	283	313	596	103	284	28	8	271	72	-6	-0	-0	+3	+4	0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	51%	185	166	35	6	1	3	15	52	2	1	1	209	282	311	593	102	283	28	8	270	71	-6	-0	-1	+3	+4	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	51%	190	171	36	6	1	3	15	54	2	0	0	206	278	304	582	97	281	28	8	265	68	-7	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	839	754	158	25	5	14	67	237	10	5	3	210	283	312	594	102	283	28	8	269	63	-30	-0	-2	+15	+18	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	122	19	4	11	52	184	8	4	2	209	283	312	594	103	282	28	8	269	63	-23	-0	-2	+12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2385	2121	426	63	15	36	198	672	42	27	11	201	282	296	578	95	273	28	8	261	63	-64	+1	-4	+32	+39	0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	116	17	4	10	54	183	11	7	3	201	281	296	577	95	272	28	8	261	63	-23	+0	-2	+12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Paul Richards'32-'46 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	15	15	218*	296*	337*	+29	+0	2.3	2.5
/162	664	6	6	+11.9	+0.0	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Malachi Kittridge'01-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,664 PA	2.5	1,664	4	11	219*	281*	319*	+30	+0	1.3	1.3
/162	664	2	4	+11.9	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.4	916	15	7	212	281	316	+16	+16	0.8	0.8
/162	664	11	5	+11.9	+11.6	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aldrin Lucas (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	204/277/295	91	286	1	1	29%	8%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Sheaffer 2019 · A	24	35	42→50	52→40	39	182/228/283	101	243	10	7	29%	5%	42	-2.9	209/254/329	120	292	12	5	31%	5%	63	-1.4	190/235/299	108	268	11	1	32%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Sam Praytor 2024 · A	25	37	42→45	49→55	40	187/249/289	101	268	10	6	33%	6%	53	-2.1	203/271/315	112	272	11	8	28%	8%	67	-1.1	191/269/298	107	248	11	9	26%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	40→45	48→30	43	189/253/279	90	264	9	6	31%	7%	51	-2.2	212/279/326	114	294	12	3	30%	8%	72	-0.7	205/275/317	113	280	13	1	30%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Connor Kaiser 2021 · A	24	38	42→45	46→50	46	189/265/291	102	263	10	6	30%	8%	59	-1.7	193/262/310	117	276	12	11	32%	8%	62	-1.4	179/257/294	115	257	12	17	33%	9%	54	-0.8
✕Andrés Alvarez 2021 · A	24	41→32	37→45	48→50	42	194/258/268	74	273	4	7	29%	6%	51	-2.3	203/269/323	120	290	13	15	33%	8%	68	-1.0	184/253/304	120	257	14	15	33%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	40→30	42→45	51→60	40	198/262/303	106	282	9	12	32%	6%	60	-1.6	182/252/273	91	277	7	13	35%	6%	50	-2.3	178/268/298	120	261	12	28	34%	10%	60	-0.9
✕Vito Friscia 2021 · A	24	43	40→45	49→40	42	206/262/298	93	286	7	5	30%	7%	59	-1.7	208/290/320	112	316	11	4	34%	9%	75	-0.5	196/287/310	113	296	11	2	34%	10%	70	-0.5
✕Blake Hunt 2023 · AA	24	39	42→50	50→40	39	193/251/299	106	278	10	5	33%	6%	55	-1.9	211/268/337	126	277	13	5	28%	6%	70	-0.8	215/280/358	143	272	16	1	27%	7%	77	-0.1
✕Joe Cronin 2018 · A	24	36	41→45	46→50	44	179/263/272	92	266	8	8	34%	8%	55	-2.0	185/271/281	96	287	9	9	35%	9%	59	-1.6	166/261/256	90	258	9	10	36%	9%	48	-1.2
✕Camden Duzenack 2019 · A	24	39→36	39→50	46→50	41	191/253/277	87	252	5	11	26%	5%	51	-2.3	186/241/309	123	254	15	9	32%	5%	54	-2.0	211/258/338	126	272	14	10	27%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2017 · A	24	43→36	42→50	50	38	209/268/316	107	294	9	13	31%	5%	65	-1.2	211/280/359	148	299	17	9	34%	7%	80	-0.1	199/274/363	164	277	21	7	34%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Collin Price 2024 · A	24	37→36	43→50	43→45	44	186/262/299	114	266	11	4	33%	9%	60	-1.6	190/264/324	134	268	16	7	33%	8%	67	-1.1	176/256/317	141	243	18	8	34%	8%	60	-1.1
✕Tate Blackman 2018 · A	23	39→34	42→45	49→40	43	194/265/299	104	264	9	4	29%	7%	61	-1.5	177/248/271	94	297	10	4	41%	7%	48	-2.5	156/231/243	86	268	10	3	43%	7%	35	-2.4
✕Shane Muntz 2023 · A	24	39	43→45	48→45	43	191/272/299	108	276	10	5	33%	8%	64	-1.3	201/273/311	110	301	11	7	34%	7%	67	-1.1	174/253/281	107	263	11	5	36%	7%	51	-0.9
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	35	41→45	45	45	174/251/274	101	254	8	6	33%	9%	50	-2.3	187/255/288	101	273	9	8	33%	8%	54	-2.0	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	32→40	43→45	47→45	44	169/250/274	105	239	11	6	33%	8%	50	-2.3	190/273/295	105	264	10	5	30%	9%	63	-1.3	177/267/274	97	242	10	3	29%	10%	54	-1.0
✕Willie MacIver 2021 · A	24	38→35	43→50	49→55	37	192/239/298	106	261	10	9	30%	4%	51	-2.3	195/262/314	119	281	13	15	34%	7%	63	-1.3	240/316/371	130	330	11	18	28%	8%	93	+0.5
✕Jacob Wetzel 2024 · A	24	38→34	41→45	50	44	185/262/277	92	271	8	12	33%	8%	55	-2.0	199/275/320	121	288	9	14	31%	9%	69	-0.9	196/279/346	150	275	11	17	30%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Duke Sardinha 2006 · A	25	42→33	40→50	46→45	45	206/264/301	94	266	8	8	25%	7%	60	-1.6	199/246/325	126	276	14	6	32%	5%	59	-1.6	191/239/324	133	257	16	5	32%	5%	54	-1.1

Aldrin Lucas

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps