Jesus Machado — OGILVIE

Jesus Machado2B FCL Tigers

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 152 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj PA

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .264 / .272

PA72

HR1

K%34

BB%8

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	126	28	3	1	0	11	47	7	12	5	222	319	262	581	40	354	32	8	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	119	34	4	1	0	18	32	7	12	5	286	410	336	746	50	391	22	12	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	157	133	24	4	1	1	12	51	10	10	7	180	297	248	545	68	277	32	8	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	157	126	34	5	1	1	19	35	10	10	7	270	406	349	756	79	359	22	12	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	148	126	14	1	0	2	17	73	4	9	3	111	238	167	405	56	231	49	11	197	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	148	114	20	2	0	3	29	50	4	9	3	175	361	272	632	96	274	34	20	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	DET	—	72	65	12	2	0	1	6	25	1	1	0	185	264	262	525	77	287	35	8	249	49	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	DET	30%	110	98	20	3	1	2	9	36	2	2	0	204	284	316	601	112	289	33	8	261	58	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	DET	44%	227	203	41	7	1	4	18	73	4	4	1	202	280	305	585	103	290	32	8	269	64	-9	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	DET	30%	33	29	5	1	0	0	3	11	1	1	0	172	273	207	480	34	285	33	9	246	46	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	DET	44%	100	90	19	3	1	2	8	32	2	2	0	211	290	333	623	122	285	32	8	253	52	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	133	119	24	4	1	2	11	43	3	3	0	202	286	303	588	101	297	32	8	252	51	-7	+1	+0	+0	+4	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	118	20	5	10	54	210	15	15	0	203	288	306	594	103	298	32	8	252	51	-36	+3	+0	+2	+18	-1.3
Career	—			—	859	751	139	20	4	10	73	305	28	38	16	185	282	262	544	77	293	36	8	246	47	-52	+1	+0	+3	+24	-2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	105	15	3	8	55	231	21	29	12	185	281	264	545	79	291	36	8	246	47	-39	+1	+0	+2	+18	-1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	119	34	4	1	0	18	32	7	12	5	286	410	336	746	50	391	22	12	350	126	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2023	20	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	157	126	34	5	1	1	19	35	10	10	7	270	406	349	756	79	359	22	12	351	127	+5	-1	—	—	+4	0.9
2024	21	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	148	114	20	2	0	3	29	50	4	9	3	175	361	272	632	96	274	34	20	308	94	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	205	3	4	199	272	297	+1	+2	-0.3	-0.2
	/162	664	10	12	199	272	297	+2.4	+6.5	-1.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Machado (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	188/264/272	84	287	1	1	34%	8%	49	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39	40→45	50→45	37	189/243/279	90	293	7	9	36%	6%	40	-2.4	181/265/289	108	254	11	5	31%	9%	54	-1.4	161/255/263	101	223	11	3	31%	10%	40	-1.3
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	34	40→45	53→50	34	176/209/269	93	256	6	9	34%	4%	22	-3.7	215/263/298	83	301	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	42	-2.3	199/264/283	84	349	5	9	41%	7%	51	-1.7	149/237/238	89	307	4	14	47%	8%	28	-0.6
✕Gift Ngoepe 2013 · A	23	40	37→45	47→50	39	192/249/264	71	295	5	14	35%	6%	39	-2.5	194/253/292	98	314	8	14	38%	7%	48	-1.9	171/250/283	112	296	11	5	43%	9%	43	-0.9
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	38	41→40	46→40	41	184/265/285	101	288	8	8	36%	8%	53	-1.5	205/278/297	92	316	7	5	34%	7%	60	-1.0	204/278/288	84	318	5	2	34%	7%	56	-0.7
✕Joe Donovan 2022 · A	23	39	41→45	52→40	37	183/264/283	100	312	9	10	41%	7%	52	-1.6	185/249/295	110	299	10	5	39%	6%	48	-1.9	171/233/286	115	268	11	2	38%	5%	36	-1.0
✕Chris Hess 2018 · A	23	39→34	37→45	49→30	38	187/245/270	83	282	3	5	33%	6%	39	-2.5	194/251/308	114	284	11	4	34%	4%	52	-1.6	181/239/309	128	257	14	1	34%	4%	46	-1.6
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Matt Winn 2016 · A	23	40→34	40→50	50→30	37	196/246/288	92	293	7	7	34%	6%	43	-2.2	190/247/324	134	306	16	2	41%	7%	54	-1.4	173/233/309	136	290	16	0	44%	7%	41	-1.5
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→50	38	201/251/299	98	265	10	15	28%	5%	49	-1.8	209/254/332	123	305	13	11	34%	5%	59	-1.1	181/215/331	150	258	17	11	37%	3%	42	-0.5
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	35→31	43→50	47→50	33	181/224/287	106	270	10	13	36%	4%	34	-2.8	185/234/295	110	296	11	12	39%	5%	40	-2.4	179/230/328	148	260	18	12	38%	5%	47	-1.3
✕Brock Carpenter 2018 · A	23	37	41→40	48→30	42	184/257/280	96	282	10	6	36%	8%	47	-1.9	201/263/302	101	330	8	6	38%	7%	55	-1.4	188/249/306	119	317	7	3	40%	7%	46	-0.7
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Andy Yerzy 2021 · A	23	35	38→50	49→40	35	174/224/252	77	276	5	7	37%	5%	25	-3.5	182/265/327	145	260	18	6	36%	8%	64	-0.8	160/246/298	138	227	19	4	38%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Connor Justus 2018 · A	23	41→37	38→40	46→45	45	193/275/270	77	281	5	9	31%	8%	53	-1.5	176/256/248	72	256	5	8	31%	8%	40	-2.4	158/238/217	59	235	4	6	32%	7%	21	-2.5
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	40	41→50	51→55	42	193/268/296	103	286	9	14	34%	8%	56	-1.3	205/269/314	109	292	8	12	30%	6%	60	-1.0	179/262/313	134	284	16	16	40%	8%	57	-0.7
✕James Parker 2023 · A	23	35→23	42→50	51→45	35	177/230/279	102	291	9	7	41%	6%	35	-2.8	182/248/308	126	328	15	7	45%	8%	50	-1.7	144/223/290	146	256	21	4	50%	9%	33	-1.4
✕Joe Cronin 2018 · A	24	36	40→45	46→50	45	178/268/270	92	268	8	8	34%	9%	50	-1.7	186/274/284	98	291	9	9	36%	9%	56	-1.3	170/264/263	93	267	9	10	36%	9%	45	-1.0
✕Connor Blair 2022 · A	24	37	39→45	48→45	45	178/255/258	80	271	7	11	34%	9%	40	-2.4	199/285/312	113	313	12	8	37%	9%	68	-0.5	163/272/277	114	257	15	5	39%	11%	52	-0.5
✕Ben Gobbel 2023 · A	23	41→40	36→50	47→50	41	197/258/265	68	279	4	7	29%	6%	43	-2.2	211/270/330	119	289	13	13	30%	6%	66	-0.6	213/262/352	139	271	17	12	28%	4%	64	-0.4