Jesus Machado — OGILVIE

Jesus Machado2B FCL Tigers

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 152 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .265 / .271

PA6

HR0

K%34

BB%8

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	119	34	4	1	0	18	32	7	12	5	286	410	336	746	50	391	22	12	350	123	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2023	20	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	157	126	34	5	1	1	19	35	10	10	7	270	406	349	756	79	359	22	12	351	124	+4	-1	—	—	+3	0.7
2024	21	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	148	114	20	2	0	3	29	50	4	9	3	175	361	272	632	96	274	34	20	308	94	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	126	28	3	1	0	11	47	7	12	5	222	319	262	581	40	331	32	8	253	57	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	157	133	25	4	1	1	12	51	10	10	7	188	303	256	559	68	265	32	8	242	50	-9	-1	—	—	+3	-0.7
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	148	126	14	1	0	2	17	73	4	9	3	111	238	167	405	56	218	49	11	198	20	-14	+1	—	—	+3	-1.0
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	126	28	3	1	0	11	47	7	12	5	222	319	262	581	40	354	32	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	119	34	4	1	0	18	32	7	12	5	286	410	336	746	50	391	22	12	350	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	157	133	25	4	1	1	12	51	10	10	7	188	303	256	559	68	289	32	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	—	157	126	34	5	1	1	19	35	10	10	7	270	406	349	756	79	359	22	12	351	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	148	126	14	1	0	2	17	73	4	9	3	111	238	167	405	56	231	49	11	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	—	148	114	20	2	0	3	29	50	4	9	3	175	361	272	632	96	274	34	20	308	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	126	28	3	1	0	11	47	7	12	5	222	319	262	581	40	331	32	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	157	134	25	4	1	1	12	51	10	10	7	187	303	254	557	67	265	32	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	148	126	14	1	0	2	17	73	4	9	3	111	238	167	405	56	218	49	11	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	157	134	25	4	1	1	12	51	10	10	7	187	303	254	557	67	265	32	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	148	126	14	1	0	2	17	73	4	9	3	111	238	167	405	56	218	49	11	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	23	MLB MLE	DET	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		287	33	0	249	55	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	DET	30%	110	98	20	3	1	2	9	36	2	2	0	204	284	316	601	112	289	33	8	261	63	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	DET	30%	33	29	5	1	0	0	3	11	1	1	0	172	273	207	480	34	284	33	9	246	63	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	33	29	5	1	0	0	3	11	1	1	0	172	273	207	480	34	278	33	9	246	47	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	99	20	0	0	59	217	20	20	0	173	274	208	482	35	280	33	9	246	47	-29	+4	+0	+2	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	566	489	88	11	3	5	49	209	23	33	15	180	285	245	531	65	297	37	9	237	47	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	562	101	13	3	6	56	240	26	38	17	180	284	246	530	66	296	37	9	237	47	-29	+2	+0	+2	+14	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Machado (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	188/265/271	82	287	1	1	34%	8%	55	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39→40	39→45	49→45	36	186/240/271	86	298	6	9	38%	6%	44	-2.8	182/266/288	106	256	11	5	31%	9%	59	-1.6	164/257/264	101	226	11	3	30%	10%	49	-1.3
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	35	40→45	53→50	34	179/213/275	95	257	7	9	33%	4%	34	-3.5	216/264/299	83	296	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	37	42→40	46→40	40	180/259/284	104	282	9	8	37%	8%	55	-1.9	203/277/297	94	309	7	5	34%	7%	65	-1.2	203/279/289	86	310	6	2	34%	7%	62	-0.8
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	49	-2.4	199/265/283	84	347	5	9	41%	7%	57	-1.8	146/235/232	85	299	4	14	47%	8%	34	-0.6
✕Brock Carpenter 2018 · A	23	37	41→40	48→30	42	183/257/279	96	281	10	6	36%	8%	53	-2.1	199/261/302	103	329	8	6	39%	7%	59	-1.6	183/243/303	120	312	8	3	41%	7%	49	-0.8
✕Andy Yerzy 2021 · A	23	35	38→50	49→40	35	174/226/251	77	275	5	7	37%	5%	34	-3.5	188/272/333	145	263	18	6	34%	9%	72	-0.7	166/252/300	134	233	18	4	36%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Grayson Greiner 2016 · A	23	37	38→45	46→30	37	181/234/253	73	279	6	3	36%	6%	38	-3.2	211/265/312	101	293	9	3	29%	6%	63	-1.4	217/276/324	107	289	10	0	27%	7%	67	-0.6
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→45	49→40	39	180/241/289	109	274	11	4	37%	7%	49	-2.4	201/257/318	117	274	12	4	30%	6%	62	-1.4	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Matt Winn 2016 · A	23	40→34	40→45	50→30	37	197/245/288	92	293	7	7	34%	6%	50	-2.3	187/244/309	122	304	14	2	40%	7%	55	-2.0	153/215/263	110	288	11	0	48%	7%	31	-1.6
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	43→50	46→45	38	201/248/313	112	281	10	7	32%	5%	57	-1.8	196/259/294	98	295	9	10	34%	8%	57	-1.8	166/232/250	84	247	9	10	35%	8%	35	-0.9
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	36→34	44→50	47→50	32	186/229/299	113	278	11	13	37%	4%	47	-2.6	195/241/315	120	305	12	12	38%	5%	55	-2.0	189/239/340	151	271	18	12	36%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	41→36	42→45	49→50	39	204/254/301	97	266	10	15	27%	5%	57	-1.8	211/256/332	121	306	12	11	34%	5%	64	-1.3	186/219/331	145	265	16	11	36%	3%	51	-0.5
✕Ben Gobbel 2023 · A	23	42→41	36→45	47→50	41	197/257/265	68	280	4	7	30%	6%	49	-2.4	211/269/323	112	288	12	13	30%	6%	68	-1.0	212/261/335	123	271	15	11	27%	4%	64	-0.9
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	39	41→45	51→55	42	192/267/295	103	286	9	14	34%	8%	61	-1.5	205/269/313	108	292	7	12	30%	6%	65	-1.2	178/265/281	103	258	10	19	32%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Julio Carrion 2022 · A	23	39	38→40	50→45	42	188/269/267	79	279	6	5	33%	7%	55	-1.9	186/259/280	94	342	9	5	45%	7%	55	-2.0	160/236/251	91	316	11	4	49%	7%	37	-1.3
✕Connor Justus 2018 · A	23	40→38	38→40	46→45	45	189/272/265	76	270	5	9	30%	8%	56	-1.9	179/259/251	72	255	5	8	29%	8%	49	-2.4	164/243/223	59	238	4	6	30%	7%	34	-2.4
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→34	40	49→55	33	186/229/277	91	285	8	9	37%	4%	41	-3.0	175/226/265	90	273	8	12	37%	5%	38	-3.2	148/203/228	80	231	8	13	38%	5%	19	-2.4
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	186/240/263	77	257	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	207/267/299	92	292	8	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Grae Kessinger 2021 · A	23	43→31	39→45	50	47	208/276/293	85	264	7	12	23%	8%	63	-1.4	191/260/296	105	257	12	15	29%	8%	59	-1.7	179/261/273	93	244	9	8	29%	9%	52	-0.9