Alberto Pacheco

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 176 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	23	21	121	3.73	3.73	21.9%	10.3%	—	K 16.3% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.77
2025	22	A+COL	29	21	113	6.53	4.88	17.0%	10.9%	—	K 13.1% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.68
2026	23	MIX3 levels	24	2	36	8.50	6.35	21.1%	16.6%	—	K 18.0% · BB 19.3% · FIP 7.81
2027PROJ	24	MLBCOL	10	10	57	6.44	6.44	12.8%	16.2%	-0.9
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCOL	8	8	45	6.10	6.01	14.9%	14.6%	-0.5
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCOL	12	12	69	5.88	5.82	16.1%	14.0%	-0.7

Next 3 projected WAR -2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBryce Hubbart (age 23) · Brooks Gosswein (age 24) · Adam Loewen (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139147vR 155

ERA6.44

FIP6.44

K%12.8%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%-3.4%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	11	46	182	51	9	3	100%	4.2	19.1%	6.2%	12.9%	2.0%	2.93	3.39	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	11	46	182	51	9	3	100%	4.2	28.0%	4.9%	23.1%	1.6%	2.93	2.32	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	11	8	46	195	57	15	1	73%	4.2	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	0.8%	3.13	3.07	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	11	8	46	195	57	15	1	73%	4.2	29.2%	7.7%	21.5%	0.5%	3.13	1.88	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	14	14	73	321	69	23	4	100%	5.2	15.9%	8.5%	7.5%	1.4%	5.45	3.58	—
2023	20	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	14	14	73	321	69	23	4	100%	5.2	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	1.2%	5.45	2.87	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	121	515	113	53	11	91%	5.2	16.3%	12.1%	4.2%	2.8%	3.73	4.77	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	121	515	113	53	11	91%	5.2	16.3%	12.1%	4.2%	2.8%	3.73	4.77	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	121	515	113	53	11	91%	5.2	21.9%	10.3%	11.7%	2.1%	3.73	3.73	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	29	21	113	524	89	57	16	72%	3.9	13.1%	12.5%	0.6%	3.8%	6.53	5.68	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	29	21	113	524	89	57	16	72%	3.9	13.1%	12.5%	0.6%	3.8%	6.53	5.68	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	29	21	113	524	89	57	16	72%	3.9	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	3.1%	6.53	4.88	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	2	36	175	37	29	8	8%	1.5	18.0%	19.3%	-1.3%	6.9%	8.50	7.81	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	2	36	175	37	29	8	8%	1.5	18.0%	19.3%	-1.3%	6.9%	8.50	7.81	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	2	36	175	37	29	8	8%	1.5	21.1%	16.6%	4.6%	4.6%	8.50	6.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	COL	10	10	57	241	31	39	9	100%	5.7	12.8%	16.2%	-3.4%	3.6%	6.44	6.44	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	103	435	65	63	15	100%	5.7	14.9%	14.6%	0.3%	3.5%	6.10	6.01	-1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	103	435	70	61	15	100%	6.1	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	3.5%	5.88	5.82	-1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	102	429	70	59	15	100%	6.0	16.4%	13.8%	2.6%	3.5%	5.79	5.78	-1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	98	416	68	57	15	100%	6.2	16.4%	13.8%	2.6%	3.6%	5.80	5.83	-1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	94	397	64	56	15	100%	5.9	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	3.8%	5.89	5.96	-1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	88	374	59	53	15	100%	5.9	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	4.0%	6.04	6.14	-1.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	45	190	28	28	7	100%	5.6	14.9%	14.6%	0.3%	3.5%	6.10	6.01	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	69	291	47	41	10	100%	5.8	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	3.5%	5.88	5.82	-0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	79	334	55	46	12	100%	6.1	16.4%	13.8%	2.6%	3.5%	5.79	5.78	-0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	83	350	57	48	13	100%	5.9	16.4%	13.8%	2.6%	3.6%	5.80	5.83	-0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	82	346	56	48	13	100%	5.9	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	3.8%	5.89	5.96	-0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	80	338	53	48	13	100%	6.2	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	4.0%	6.04	6.14	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	438	1849	296	259	68	100%	6.0	16.0%	14.0%	2.0%	3.7%	5.90	5.54	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	135	118	31	100%	6.0	16.0%	14.0%	2.0%	3.7%	5.90	5.54	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		112	77	434	1912	309	219	56	69%	3.9	16.1%	11.4%	4.7%	2.9%	4.99	4.79	-6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	35	200	880	142	101	26	69%	3.9	16.1%	11.4%	4.7%	2.9%	4.99	4.79	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alberto Pacheco (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.44	12.8%	16.2%	3.6%	—	5.87	15.8%	1.7%	308	-0.57	—	—	—
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	76
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	75
Adam Loewen L 2008 · 6.87 FIP	24	SP-	6.87	13.7%	17.6%	4.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	340	74
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	73
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	73
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	68
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	68
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	66
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	66
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	265	-1.04	3.68	450	66
Aliangel Lopez L 2017 · 6.36 FIP	23	SW	6.36	13.0%	13.9%	4.7%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	260	66
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	65
Mark Reyes L 2017 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.9%	17.0%	2.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	378	65
Pedro Hernandez L 2013 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	11.0%	8.4%	3.8%	.347	4.09	13.1%	4.2%	68	-1.22	4.09	124	65
Jeff Malm L 2015 · 6.46 FIP	24	SW	6.46	12.1%	9.0%	5.9%	.339	3.13	22.0%	14.8%	48	-3.33	3.13	101	65
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	65
Shane Dawson L 2017 · 5.77 FIP	23	SP-	5.77	9.8%	10.3%	4.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	373	64
Matt Perisho L 2000 · 5.59 FIP	25	SW	5.59	14.4%	12.4%	3.9%	.325	4.96	9.3%	1.3%	50	-0.63	4.41	261	64
Jaime Arias L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	24	SP	5.99	17.5%	13.9%	4.8%	.333	5.33	15.1%	5.4%	54	-0.66	4.38	243	63
Ross Detwiler L 2010 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP-	5.29	12.6%	9.6%	3.7%	.290	3.86	14.5%	8.0%	302	-1.43	3.41	982	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	92	15.7%	14.3%	1.41	5.96
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Sean Douglass ('05)	1.0	52	16.6%	12.1%	1.47	6.11
Joe Giard ('25-'27, -1 WAR*)	1.4	93	15.4%*	12.8%*	1.79*	5.71*
Rube Fischer ('41-'46, -4 WAR*)	1.9	96	18.0%*	12.5%*	1.14*	6.04*
Mike Kekich ('65-'77, -7 WAR*)	4.3	108	17.8%*	11.4%*	1.17*	5.83*