Kevin Rivas
SS Lake County Captains| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/A/ROK2 orgs | 157 | .148/.306/.195 | 0 | 4 | -5 | — | .095/.210/.132 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+CLE | 130 | .178/.307/.290 | 2 | 2 | 29 | — | .135/.244/.207 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA/AA/A+CLE | 115 | .090/.209/.170 | 2 | 1 | -25 | — | .066/.157/.133 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCLE | 1 | .162/.243/.238 | 0 | 0 | 39 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBCLE | 57 | .167/.249/.252 | 1 | 1 | 44 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 34
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Indians Red | — | 107 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 241 | 429 | 316 | 745 | 76 | 373 | 27 | 23 | 351 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL CLE Red | — | 136 | 115 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 51 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 270 | 382 | 391 | 774 | 122 | 476 | 38 | 13 | 353 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 34 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 265 | 138 | 403 | 364 | 53 | 15 | 209 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 89 | 76 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 145 | 270 | 211 | 480 | 66 | 324 | 47 | 15 | 235 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 34 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 174 | 441 | 217 | 659 | 43 | 333 | 32 | 29 | 344 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 130 | 107 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 307 | 290 | 597 | 112 | 315 | 42 | 12 | 276 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 133 | 321 | 182 | 25 | 6 | 157 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 294 | 461 | 176 | 100 | 33 | 6 | 205 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 81 | 68 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 222 | 147 | 369 | 74 | 154 | 51 | 16 | 192 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians Red | — | 107 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 163 | 314 | 221 | 535 | 58 | 242 | 33 | 17 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Red | — | 136 | 120 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 61 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 167 | 265 | 233 | 498 | 67 | 322 | 45 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 34 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 206 | 100 | 306 | 345 | 65 | 12 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 89 | 80 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 87 | 180 | 138 | 317 | 50 | 291 | 65 | 10 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 34 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 111 | 294 | 148 | 442 | 37 | 262 | 47 | 18 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 130 | 111 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 135 | 244 | 207 | 451 | 72 | 275 | 52 | 9 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 133 | 321 | 178 | 31 | 6 | 134 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 294 | 461 | 176 | 98 | 39 | 6 | 152 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 81 | 72 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 148 | 97 | 245 | 56 | 132 | 64 | 11 | 126 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians Red | — | 107 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 163 | 314 | 221 | 535 | 58 | 269 | 33 | 17 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Indians Red | — | 107 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 241 | 429 | 316 | 745 | 76 | 373 | 27 | 23 | 351 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Red | — | 136 | 120 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 61 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 167 | 265 | 233 | 498 | 67 | 339 | 45 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL CLE Red | — | 136 | 115 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 51 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 270 | 382 | 391 | 774 | 122 | 476 | 38 | 13 | 353 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 157 | 138 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 96 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 87 | 197 | 116 | 313 | 29 | 286 | 61 | 11 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 157 | 128 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 71 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 148 | 306 | 195 | 501 | 47 | 333 | 45 | 18 | 253 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 130 | 111 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 135 | 244 | 207 | 451 | 72 | 304 | 52 | 9 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 130 | 107 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 307 | 290 | 597 | 112 | 315 | 42 | 12 | 276 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 115 | 104 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 148 | 96 | 244 | 38 | 128 | 56 | 10 | 131 | -25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 115 | 100 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 209 | 170 | 379 | 80 | 149 | 44 | 13 | 189 | -25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians Red | — | 107 | 87 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 161 | 314 | 218 | 533 | 57 | 242 | 33 | 17 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Red | — | 136 | 119 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 61 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 168 | 265 | 235 | 500 | 67 | 322 | 45 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 157 | 137 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 96 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 88 | 197 | 117 | 314 | 29 | 296 | 61 | 11 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 130 | 113 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 133 | 244 | 204 | 448 | 71 | 275 | 52 | 9 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 115 | 103 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 148 | 97 | 245 | 39 | 133 | 56 | 10 | 131 | -25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 157 | 137 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 96 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 88 | 197 | 117 | 314 | 29 | 296 | 61 | 11 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 130 | 113 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 133 | 244 | 204 | 448 | 71 | 275 | 52 | 9 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 115 | 103 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 148 | 97 | 245 | 39 | 133 | 56 | 10 | 131 | -25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CLE | 0% | 200 | 179 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 76 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 162 | 243 | 239 | 482 | 77 | 263 | 38 | 8 | 225 | 39 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | CLE | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 243 | 238 | 481 | 76 | 263 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 39 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 30% | 187 | 167 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 70 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 167 | 249 | 253 | 501 | 85 | 265 | 37 | 9 | 233 | 44 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 30% | 57 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 249 | 252 | 501 | 84 | 265 | 37 | 9 | 233 | 44 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 57 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 275 | 538 | 98 | 276 | 37 | 9 | 233 | 24 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 102 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 57 | 239 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 175 | 262 | 271 | 533 | 96 | 274 | 37 | 9 | 233 | 24 | -44 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 939 | 822 | 109 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 97 | 434 | 12 | 24 | 8 | 133 | 234 | 191 | 425 | 58 | 267 | 46 | 10 | 204 | 24 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 569 | 75 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 67 | 300 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 132 | 233 | 188 | 421 | 56 | 267 | 46 | 10 | 204 | 24 | -45 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Lake County Captains · 81 PAwOBA .188 → .126 (−62)K% 50.6% → 64.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 50.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 64.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 11.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 6.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 5.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.96% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .188 → .126; ISO .074 → .043; BABIP .154 → .132. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 18 PAwOBA .199 → .152 (−46)K% 33.3% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 9.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 7.28% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .199 → .152; ISO .176 → .128; BABIP .100 → .098. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 16 PAwOBA .153 → .134 (−20)K% 25.0% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 17.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .153 → .134; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .182 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Lake County Captains · 130 PAwOBA .276 → .211 (−65)K% 41.5% → 51.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.54% | ÷1.020 | ×1.270 | — | — | 51.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.31% | ÷0.991 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.08% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 21.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷1.138 | ×0.810 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.952 | ×0.850 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.011 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.02% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 90, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .276 → .211; ISO .112 → .081; BABIP .315 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 89 PAwOBA .230 → .144 (−85)K% 47.2% → 65.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 47.19% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 65.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.61% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷1.056 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 18.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.941 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.906 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 3.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.844 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 111, 2B 88, 3B 81, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .230 → .144; ISO .066 → .041; BABIP .324 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lake County Captains · 34 PAwOBA .205 → .146 (−59)K% 52.9% → 65.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 52.94% | ÷1.023 | ×1.270 | — | — | 65.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 10.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 34.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.190 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 105, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .205 → .146; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .364 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Guardians · 34 PAwOBA .338 → .221 (−117)K% 32.4% → 47.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.35% | ÷0.988 | ×1.440 | — | — | 47.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 29.41% | ÷0.998 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 18.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.054 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 87, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .221; ISO .043 → .027; BABIP .333 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL CLE Red · 136 PAwOBA .344 → .223 (−122)K% 37.5% → 45.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.24% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.21% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.94% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | ×1.037 | ×0.995 | 24.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.987 | ×0.600 | ×1.037 | ×0.995 | 2.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.037 | ×0.995 | 4.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.187 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.62% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 103, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .344 → .223; ISO .122 → .070; BABIP .476 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).