Albert Rivas

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	ROKATL	5	1	19	4.26	3.10	24.1%	5.1%	—	K 16.4% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.70
2024	21	MIX2 levels	25	0	36	3.72	2.49	22.4%	7.2%	—	K 16.0% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.32
2025	22	AATL	27	0	50	3.62	3.62	21.7%	10.4%	—	K 16.1% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	24	MLBATL	54	0	57	5.37	5.37	16.1%	13.0%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBATL	24	0	25	5.20	5.15	17.4%	12.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBATL	36	0	38	5.09	5.06	18.1%	11.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

CompsDavid Trexler (age 24) · Juan Paniagua (age 25) · Jake Johansen (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%16.1%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%3.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	13	4	43	191	45	10	2	31%	3.3	16.0%	6.5%	9.5%	1.4%	4.85	3.33	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	13	4	43	191	45	10	2	31%	3.3	23.6%	5.2%	18.3%	1.0%	4.85	2.30	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	5	1	19	79	19	4	2	20%	3.8	16.4%	6.3%	10.0%	4.0%	4.26	4.70	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	5	1	19	79	19	4	2	20%	3.8	24.1%	5.1%	19.0%	2.5%	4.26	3.10	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	36	152	34	11	1	0%	1.5	16.0%	8.8%	7.3%	0.8%	3.72	3.32	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	36	152	34	11	1	0%	1.5	16.0%	8.8%	7.3%	0.8%	3.72	3.32	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	36	152	34	11	1	0%	1.5	22.4%	7.2%	15.1%	0.7%	3.72	2.49	—
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	27	0	50	212	46	22	4	0%	1.8	16.1%	12.2%	3.8%	1.9%	3.62	4.35	—
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	27	0	50	212	46	22	4	0%	1.8	16.1%	12.2%	3.8%	1.9%	3.62	4.35	—
2025	22	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	27	0	50	212	46	22	4	0%	1.8	21.7%	10.4%	11.3%	1.9%	3.62	3.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ATL	54	0	57	241	39	31	7	0%	1.1	16.1%	13.0%	3.1%	2.9%	5.37	5.37	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	55	0	58	244	42	30	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.2%	5.2%	2.9%	5.20	5.15	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	55	0	58	244	44	29	7	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.09	5.06	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	24	0	25	106	18	13	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	12.2%	5.2%	2.9%	5.20	5.15	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	36	0	38	160	29	19	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.09	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	266	47	32	8	0%	1.1	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	2.9%	5.13	4.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	102	25	0%	1.1	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	2.9%	5.13	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		70	5	148	634	102	57	11	7%	2.1	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	1.8%	4.08	3.84	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	7	200	859	138	77	15	7%	2.1	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	1.8%	4.08	3.84	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Albert Rivas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	16.1%	13.0%	2.9%	—	5.10	17.7%	5.7%	116	-0.27	—	—	—
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	91
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	90
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	89
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	89
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	89
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	89
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	89
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	89
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	87
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	87
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	86
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	86
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	86
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	86
Jack Carey R 2024 · 5.32 FIP	24	SU	5.32	15.6%	11.3%	3.8%	.305	4.27	19.6%	5.3%	88	-1.05	3.79	250	86
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	85
Mark McLaughlin R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SU	4.80	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	.247	4.16	18.9%	9.4%	84	-0.64	3.95	196	85
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	85
Jonathan Brand R 2024 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	13.6%	10.6%	2.4%	.284	4.87	22.0%	11.9%	115	+0.26	3.34	198	85
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	17.2%	12.3%	1.13	5.22
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*