Dylan Ray
P
Reno Aces
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA5.33
FIP5.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%8.8%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
OFP—45
STUF4550
CTRL—50
CMD4550
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 8 | 8 | 14 | 62 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 6.59 | 8.18 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 25 | 25 | 113 | 471 | 138 | 40 | 11 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 3.93 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 17 | 17 | 73 | 320 | 74 | 33 | 16 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 4.9% | 5.03 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | 28 | 28 | 140 | 613 | 123 | 55 | 26 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 5.45 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 3 | 3 | 13 | 59 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 20.9% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 38 | 20 | 8 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 61 | 262 | 52 | 24 | 10 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.20 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 105 | 51 | 21 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 108 | 52 | 21 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 5.11 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 109 | 51 | 21 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.08 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 106 | 50 | 21 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 5.12 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 102 | 49 | 20 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 5.15 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 97 | 48 | 20 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.21 | 5.25 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 92 | 47 | 20 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 5.29 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 86 | 46 | 19 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 5.38 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 80 | 44 | 19 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 5.48 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 74 | 43 | 18 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 4.4% | 5.59 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 67 | 41 | 17 | 17.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 5.72 | 5.80 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 81 | 81 | 354 | 1525 | 292 | 149 | 66 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 5.03 | 5.09 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 862 | 165 | 84 | 37 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 5.03 | 5.09 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Ray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 4.0% | — | 5.12 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 387 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 91 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 91 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.09 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.78 | 2.67 | 102 | 87 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 87 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.22 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 143 | 87 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 145 | 85 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.65 | 3.22 | 145 | 85 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 84 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .273 | 2.95 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -2.21 | 2.59 | 302 | 84 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 83 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 83 |
| Josh Hejka R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.8% | 2.9% | .363 | 3.93 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 77 | -0.74 | 2.91 | 166 | 83 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.97 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .293 | 7.35 | 17.3% | -10.8% | 11 | +2.38 | 4.61 | 194 | 83 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.75 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 5.9% | .263 | 4.74 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 111 | -1.01 | 3.86 | 157 | 83 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 83 |
| Mark Peterson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.66 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .287 | 4.76 | 13.7% | 1.8% | 52 | +0.10 | 4.66 | 185 | 83 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 83 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .286 | 4.37 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.45 | 4.37 | 141 | 83 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.42 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 134 | 83 |
| Mario Morales R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 108 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.