Dylan Ray
P
Reno Aces
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.54
FIP5.54
K%17.2%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%7.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 14 | 62 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 100% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 6.59 | 8.10 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 14 | 62 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 100% | 1.7 | 27.4% | 6.5% | 21.0% | 8.1% | 6.59 | 6.25 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 113 | 471 | 138 | 40 | 11 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 3.89 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 113 | 471 | 138 | 40 | 11 | 100% | 4.5 | 29.3% | 8.5% | 20.8% | 2.3% | 4.37 | 2.99 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 73 | 320 | 74 | 33 | 16 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.03 | 5.37 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 73 | 320 | 74 | 33 | 16 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 5.0% | 5.03 | 5.27 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 140 | 613 | 123 | 55 | 26 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 5.45 | 5.58 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 140 | 613 | 123 | 55 | 26 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 5.45 | 4.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 13 | 11 | 53 | 233 | 43 | 21 | 9 | 85% | 4.1 | 16.2% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.47 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 47 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 5.54 | 5.54 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 5.54 | 5.54 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 117 | 507 | 90 | 48 | 20 | — | — | 17.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.51 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 26 | 109 | 19 | 11 | 5 | — | — | 17.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 5.54 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 28 | 167 | 706 | 131 | 68 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 5.37 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 28 | 169 | 713 | 133 | 68 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 5.29 | 5.29 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 28 | 169 | 713 | 134 | 68 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 5.29 | 5.32 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 161 | 681 | 127 | 67 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 5.36 | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 84 | 44 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 5.37 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 102 | 52 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 5.29 | 5.29 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 112 | 57 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 5.29 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 110 | 58 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 5.36 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 92 | 92 | 544 | 2298 | 427 | 222 | 93 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 4.98 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 82 | 34 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 89 | 393 | 1699 | 318 | 167 | 73 | 98% | 4.3 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 5.10 | 5.12 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 45 | 200 | 864 | 162 | 85 | 37 | 98% | 4.3 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 5.10 | 5.12 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Ray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.54 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 4.1% | — | 5.32 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 505 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 87 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 85 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 85 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.66 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 292 | 84 |
| Chandler Champlain R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.75 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 3.5% | .298 | 4.76 | 14.9% | 7.1% | 202 | +0.01 | 4.26 | 583 | 83 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.57 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 241 | -0.16 | 4.08 | 536 | 83 |
| Allen Webster R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 82 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.46 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.7% | .325 | 6.04 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 30 | +0.58 | 4.30 | 232 | 82 |
| Jayden Murray R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .258 | 4.95 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 105 | +0.51 | 3.38 | 372 | 81 |
| Shane Greene R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 81 |
| Austin Gordon R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 81 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.94 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 5.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 358 | 81 |
| Drew Rucinski R 2027 · 5.57 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.57 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 4.7% | .336 | 3.72 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 278 | -1.85 | 2.73 | 409 | 81 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.39 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 4.4% | .317 | 4.80 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 208 | -0.59 | 4.20 | 416 | 81 |
| Brady Feigl R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 5.6% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 257 | 80 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.72 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% | .261 | 4.54 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 282 | -0.18 | 3.06 | 584 | 80 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 80 |
| Shao-Ching Chiang R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.75 | 18.8% | 10.0% | 3.6% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 575 | 80 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 498 | 80 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.10 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.1% | .277 | 6.80 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 34 | +1.70 | 4.19 | 285 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 155 | 18.4% | 9.7% | 1.57 | 5.36 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |