Dylan Ray — OGILVIE

Dylan Ray P Reno Aces

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%16.7%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD4550

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	14	62	17	4	5	100%	1.7	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	11.1%	6.59	8.43	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	14	62	17	4	5	100%	1.7	27.4%	6.5%	21.0%	8.1%	6.59	6.25	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	471	138	40	11	100%	4.5	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	2.7%	4.37	3.89	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	471	138	40	11	100%	4.5	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	2.7%	4.37	3.89	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	113	471	138	40	11	100%	4.5	29.3%	8.5%	20.8%	2.3%	4.37	2.99	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	320	74	33	16	100%	4.3	17.8%	11.4%	6.4%	5.0%	5.03	5.80	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	320	74	33	16	100%	4.3	17.8%	11.4%	6.4%	5.0%	5.03	5.80	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	73	320	74	33	16	100%	4.3	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	5.0%	5.03	5.27	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	140	613	123	55	26	100%	5.0	16.5%	8.6%	7.9%	4.7%	5.45	5.41	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	140	613	123	55	26	100%	5.0	16.5%	8.6%	7.9%	4.7%	5.45	5.41	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	140	613	123	55	26	100%	5.0	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	4.2%	5.45	4.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	25	13	79	353	66	29	16	52%	3.2	15.5%	7.4%	8.1%	5.0%	5.79	5.46	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	25	13	79	353	66	29	16	52%	3.2	15.5%	7.4%	8.1%	5.0%	5.79	5.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	ARI	25	13	79	353	66	29	16	52%	3.2	18.7%	8.2%	10.5%	4.5%	5.79	5.05	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	14	57	10	5	2	100%	6.8	16.7%	9.2%	7.5%	4.0%	5.46	5.46	-0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	ARI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.7%	9.2%	7.5%	4.0%	5.46	5.46	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	93	410	76	34	18	—	—	18.4%	8.4%	10.1%	4.5%	5.74	5.46	-0.6
FULL	25	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	1	6	1	1	0	—	—	16.7%	9.2%	7.5%	4.0%	5.46	5.08	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	28	28	167	706	128	64	28	100%	6.0	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	3.9%	5.29	5.26	-0.7
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	28	28	169	713	131	64	28	100%	6.0	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	3.9%	5.22	5.22	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	28	28	169	713	131	65	28	100%	6.0	18.4%	9.1%	9.4%	4.0%	5.22	5.26	-0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	161	681	124	63	28	100%	6.0	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	4.1%	5.29	5.36	-0.8
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	152	640	115	61	28	100%	6.1	17.9%	9.6%	8.4%	4.3%	5.44	5.54	-1.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	81	342	62	31	13	100%	5.8	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	3.9%	5.29	5.26	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	112	473	87	43	19	100%	5.9	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	3.9%	5.22	5.22	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	130	549	101	50	22	100%	5.9	18.4%	9.1%	9.4%	4.0%	5.22	5.26	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	133	562	103	52	23	100%	6.0	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	4.1%	5.29	5.36	-0.7
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	131	553	99	53	24	100%	6.0	17.9%	9.6%	8.4%	4.3%	5.44	5.54	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	589	2486	453	229	101	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.2%	9.0%	4.1%	5.30	4.96	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	154	78	34	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.2%	9.0%	4.1%	5.30	4.96	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		103	91	420	1819	331	165	82	88%	4.1	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	4.5%	5.19	5.20	-4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	866	158	79	39	88%	4.1	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	4.5%	5.19	5.20	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Ray (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	16.7%	9.2%	4.0%	—	5.25	18.3%	9.3%	505	-0.21	—	—	—
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	86
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2015 · 6.02 FIP	25	SP-	6.02	14.1%	9.1%	5.4%	.298	4.65	15.0%	6.1%	146	-1.37	4.65	278	83
Rafael Montero R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	16.6%	11.0%	3.0%	.325	3.81	23.3%	13.2%	177	-0.95	2.43	670	82
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	81
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	81
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	81
Bubba Derby R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	18.0%	10.1%	4.7%	.287	5.14	19.4%	11.0%	71	-0.28	3.68	550	80
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	80
Jared Ruxer R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	14.0%	7.0%	3.7%	.301	6.47	13.8%	5.0%	19	+1.65	3.39	270	80
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	79
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	79
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	79
Kyle Dowdy R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	18.7%	10.0%	3.1%	.344	4.88	18.4%	4.5%	125	+0.37	2.98	606	79
Randy Bell R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	14.4%	6.6%	3.0%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	120	79
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	79
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	79
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	78
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	78
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	78
Blake Beers R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SP	5.32	16.9%	10.2%	4.3%	.317	4.75	17.9%	9.6%	208	-0.57	4.35	416	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	161	18.0%	9.2%	1.57	5.32
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64