Andrew Pogue — OGILVIE

Andrew Pogue P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.21

FIP6.21

K%16.2%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%-2.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	0	5	27	5	5	0	0%	1.1	18.5%	18.5%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.88	—
2025	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	0	5	27	5	5	0	0%	1.1	18.5%	18.5%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.88	—
2025	24	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	0	5	27	5	5	0	0%	1.1	18.5%	18.5%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	4.04	—
2026	25	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	26	0	34	179	27	33	5	0%	1.3	11.2%	21.8%	-10.6%	3.6%	7.34	6.91	—
2026	25	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	26	0	34	179	27	33	5	0%	1.3	11.2%	21.8%	-10.6%	3.6%	7.34	6.91	—
2026	25	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	26	0	34	179	27	33	5	0%	1.3	15.1%	18.4%	-3.4%	2.8%	7.34	6.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	DET	19	0	20	84	14	16	3	0%	1.1	16.2%	19.1%	-2.9%	3.1%	6.21	6.21	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	29	0	30	128	22	23	4	0%	1.0	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	3.1%	6.05	6.06	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	10	0	11	46	8	8	1	0%	1.1	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	3.1%	6.05	6.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	8	8	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	3.1%	6.05	5.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	145	18	0%	1.1	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	3.1%	6.05	5.68	-2.6
Career	—	MLE		31	0	40	206	25	44	6	0%	1.3	12.1%	21.3%	-9.2%	3.2%	7.26	6.51	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	1039	126	222	33	0%	1.3	12.1%	21.3%	-9.2%	3.2%	7.26	6.51	-3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Pogue (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.21	16.2%	19.1%	3.1%	—	6.06	16.9%	-1.3%	30	-0.15	—	—	—
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	84
Jake Haberer R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	26	SU	6.54	13.4%	17.5%	4.3%	.287	5.15	19.6%	4.0%	106	-1.39	3.46	183	83
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	82
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	82
Harrison Cooney R 2018 · 6.60 FIP	26	SU	6.60	18.8%	21.9%	4.2%	.237	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	186	82
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	82
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	81
Tim Elliott R 2023 · 6.21 FIP	25	SU	6.21	15.5%	16.1%	4.3%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	5.54	138	80
Wandi Montout R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	25	SU	5.59	13.4%	18.7%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	103	80
Yennier Cano R 2019 · 5.94 FIP	25	SU	5.94	17.6%	20.2%	3.2%	.219	3.89	23.6%	12.1%	128	-2.05	2.43	381	79
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	79
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	79
Yunior Thibo R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SU	5.32	14.3%	15.6%	2.7%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	110	79
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2023 · 6.20 FIP	25	SU	6.20	17.4%	22.9%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	78
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	78
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	78
Andrew Bechtold R 2023 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	14.5%	22.7%	1.1%	.389	4.21	19.2%	7.5%	86	-1.18	3.56	104	78
Hunter Breault R 2024 · 5.98 FIP	25	SU	5.98	17.1%	17.6%	3.8%	.336	5.59	7.6%	-3.2%	45	-0.39	2.90	186	78
Chad Harville R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	17.3%	15.4%	2.9%	.328	4.84	17.6%	6.5%	142	-0.33	4.51	178	78
Jake Gozzo R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	16.2%	17.6%	2.0%	.227	4.32	15.6%	-1.3%	32	-0.72	4.32	162	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	16.6%	18.6%	1.19	6.11
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51