Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 17 | 71 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 11.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 4.32 | 2.90 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 17 | 71 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 15.5% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 4.32 | 2.50 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 65 | 307 | 68 | 19 | 12 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 4.41 | 4.95 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 65 | 307 | 68 | 19 | 12 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 6.2% | 16.0% | 3.9% | 4.41 | 4.28 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 31 | 158 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5% | 1.4 | 8.5% | 7.9% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 7.84 | 4.72 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 31 | 158 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5% | 1.4 | 12.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 7.84 | 4.55 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 36 | 0 | 40 | 189 | 42 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 17.6% | -0.5% | 4.5% | 6.08 | 6.37 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 36 | 0 | 40 | 189 | 42 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 6.08 | 4.80 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 39 | 0 | 45 | 212 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 7.6% | 10.8% | -3.2% | 3.5% | 5.36 | 5.75 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 39 | 0 | 45 | 212 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 9.9% | 9.4% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 5.36 | 4.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 25 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 15.0% | -5.0% | 3.2% | 6.27 | 6.27 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 27 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.2% | 14.6% | -3.4% | 3.2% | 6.13 | 6.16 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 28 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.9% | 14.4% | -2.5% | 3.4% | 6.09 | 6.15 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.2% | 14.6% | -3.4% | 3.2% | 6.13 | 6.16 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 15 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.9% | 14.4% | -2.5% | 3.4% | 6.09 | 6.15 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 25 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.6% | 14.5% | -2.9% | 3.3% | 6.11 | 5.77 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 97 | 120 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.6% | 14.5% | -2.9% | 3.3% | 6.11 | 5.77 | -0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 157 | 1 | 198 | 937 | 125 | 96 | 33 | 1% | 1.3 | 13.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.49 | 5.22 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 1 | 200 | 945 | 126 | 97 | 33 | 1% | 1.3 | 13.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.49 | 5.22 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Breault (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.27 | 10.0% | 15.0% | 3.2% | — | 6.16 | 11.6% | -2.9% | 113 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.72 | 10.4% | 13.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.59 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 31 | -1.13 | 3.64 | 204 | 86 |
| Mike Hepple R 2025 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.74 | 11.1% | 18.5% | 2.2% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 116 | 85 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 82 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.23 | 11.9% | 16.3% | 1.9% | .308 | 5.15 | 15.9% | 2.1% | 61 | -0.08 | 3.64 | 237 | 80 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2024 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 80 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2029 · 5.27 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.27 | 8.3% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .365 | 4.44 | 11.4% | 3.1% | 109 | -0.83 | 4.15 | 152 | 79 |
| Roel Garcia III R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.46 | 10.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 252 | 79 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2026 · 6.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.69 | 10.3% | 13.8% | 4.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 144 | 78 |
| Jack Anderson R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 10.9% | 13.4% | 2.6% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 250 | 78 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 76 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.20 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 104 | 76 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 76 |
| Thomas Farr R 2026 · 6.15 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.15 | 9.5% | 12.9% | 4.0% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 408 | 76 |
| Jaycob Deese R 2025 · 5.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.90 | 13.4% | 13.9% | 4.0% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 185 | 76 |
| Landon Tomkins R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.15 | 10.7% | 15.1% | 1.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 161 | 75 |
| Jordan Gore R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.2% | 18.5% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 75 |
| Yunior Thibo R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.26 | 14.3% | 15.6% | 2.5% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 110 | 75 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.80 | 13.5% | 12.7% | 4.1% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 193 | 75 |
| Travis Kuhn R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 13.9% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 246 | 74 |
| CJ Weins R 2024 · 5.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.65 | 15.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 113 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 11.0% | 14.7% | 1.26 | 6.17 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |