Andrew Bechtold — OGILVIE

Andrew Bechtold P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%21.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2019	23	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	20	0	18	95	16	24	1	0%	0.9	14.0%	22.7%	-8.8%	1.1%	11.00	5.43	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	20	0	18	95	16	24	1	0%	0.9	14.0%	22.7%	-8.8%	1.1%	11.00	5.43	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	20	0	18	95	16	24	1	0%	0.9	16.8%	25.3%	-8.4%	1.1%	11.00	6.04	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	33	160	32	20	2	0%	1.0	16.0%	10.8%	5.1%	0.8%	6.21	3.56	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	33	160	32	20	2	0%	1.0	16.0%	10.8%	5.1%	0.8%	6.21	3.56	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	33	160	32	20	2	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%	1.2%	6.21	3.76	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	42	195	58	22	6	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.1%	12.7%	2.7%	5.57	4.00	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	42	195	58	22	6	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.1%	12.7%	2.7%	5.57	4.00	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	42	195	58	22	6	0%	1.0	29.7%	11.3%	18.5%	3.1%	5.57	3.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	21	0	23	110	18	14	4	0%	1.1	12.3%	12.3%	-0.0%	3.8%	6.94	5.68	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	21	0	23	110	18	14	4	0%	1.1	12.3%	12.3%	-0.0%	3.8%	6.94	5.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	A RAW	PHI	4	0	4	16	4	1	1	0%	0.9	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	6.2%	4.91	5.21	—
2026	30	A+ RAW	PHI	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.80	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	PHI	16	0	19	88	13	12	3	0%	1.2	14.8%	13.6%	1.1%	3.4%	7.23	5.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.0%	9.7%	3.0%	4.74	4.82	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	PHI	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.0%	9.7%	3.2%	4.86	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.0%	9.7%	3.2%	4.86	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	109	27	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.0%	9.7%	3.2%	4.86	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		116	0	118	563	102	76	12	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.5%	4.6%	2.1%	6.81	4.43	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	0	200	957	173	129	20	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.5%	4.6%	2.1%	6.81	4.43	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Bechtold (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	21.9%	11.9%	2.8%	—	4.82	21.6%	9.7%	20	+0.16	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	92
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	89
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	85
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	85
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	83
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	82
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	80
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	79
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	79
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	78
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	78
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	77
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	77
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	77
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	76
Louis Coleman R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	30	SU	3.87	21.3%	10.4%	2.3%	.288	3.63	22.0%	10.9%	144	-0.24	3.10	256	75
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	75
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	74
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	74
Roman Mendez R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	230	74