Brody Jessee

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 217 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+CIN	32	0	63	6.11	3.18	23.1%	8.4%	—	K 17.8% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.76
2025	24	A+CIN	28	1	48	7.17	5.39	19.9%	12.1%	—	K 15.3% · BB 13.9% · FIP 5.95
2026	25	MIX2 levels	34	0	60	5.88	5.95	24.5%	10.0%	—	K 19.6% · BB 11.2% · FIP 7.04
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	67	0	70	6.08	6.08	16.6%	13.6%	-1.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCIN	25	0	26	5.92	5.94	17.3%	13.2%	-0.4
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCIN	38	0	40	5.86	5.90	17.6%	13.1%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsRoman Phansalkar (age 26) · Justin Courtney (age 26) · Stephen Johnson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 132

ERA6.08

FIP6.08

K%16.6%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%3.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	0	2	6	1	1	0	0%	0.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.80	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	0	2	6	1	1	0	0%	0.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.70	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	34	150	55	23	1	0%	1.7	24.9%	19.4%	5.5%	1.0%	1.83	3.98	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	0	34	150	55	23	1	0%	1.7	36.7%	15.3%	21.3%	0.7%	1.83	2.28	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	32	0	63	286	66	24	5	0%	2.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	1.7%	6.11	3.76	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	32	0	63	286	66	24	5	0%	2.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	1.7%	6.11	3.76	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	32	0	63	286	66	24	5	0%	2.0	23.1%	8.4%	14.7%	1.7%	6.11	3.18	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	28	1	48	231	46	28	9	4%	1.7	15.3%	13.9%	1.4%	4.3%	7.17	5.95	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	28	1	48	231	46	28	9	4%	1.7	15.3%	13.9%	1.4%	4.3%	7.17	5.95	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	28	1	48	231	46	28	9	4%	1.7	19.9%	12.1%	7.8%	3.9%	7.17	5.39	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	60	269	66	27	17	0%	1.8	19.6%	11.2%	8.4%	7.6%	5.88	7.04	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	60	269	66	27	17	0%	1.8	19.6%	11.2%	8.4%	7.6%	5.88	7.04	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	60	269	66	27	17	0%	1.8	24.5%	10.0%	14.5%	6.3%	5.88	5.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	67	0	70	296	49	40	12	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.2%	6.08	6.08	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	66	0	69	291	50	39	12	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	4.1%	5.92	5.94	-1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	64	0	67	282	50	37	12	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.1%	4.6%	4.1%	5.86	5.90	-1.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	270	48	35	11	0%	1.0	17.7%	13.1%	4.6%	4.2%	5.88	5.95	-1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	25	0	26	110	19	15	4	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	4.1%	5.92	5.94	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	38	0	40	169	30	22	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.1%	4.6%	4.1%	5.86	5.90	-0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	43	0	45	190	34	25	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	13.1%	4.6%	4.2%	5.88	5.95	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	82	61	19	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.1%	4.4%	4.1%	5.88	5.55	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	110	34	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.1%	4.4%	4.1%	5.88	5.55	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		116	1	207	942	177	120	37	1%	1.8	18.8%	12.7%	6.1%	3.9%	5.57	5.27	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	1	200	912	172	116	36	1%	1.8	18.8%	12.7%	6.1%	3.9%	5.57	5.27	-3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody Jessee (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.08	16.6%	13.6%	4.2%	—	5.93	17.5%	4.4%	200	-0.15	—	—	—
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	89
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	86
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	85
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	84
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	83
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	82
Andrew Gross R 2022 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	13.7%	10.6%	5.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	2.44	116	82
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	81
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Will Geerdes R 2024 · 5.57 FIP	24	SU	5.57	16.3%	12.2%	4.2%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	121	81
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	81
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	81
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	81
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	80
Jack Carey R 2024 · 5.32 FIP	24	SU	5.32	15.6%	11.3%	3.8%	.305	4.27	19.6%	5.3%	88	-1.05	3.79	250	80
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	80
Dylan Hall R 2024 · 7.24 FIP	26	SU	7.24	15.1%	12.7%	6.9%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	153	80
Casey Cobb R 2022 · 5.46 FIP	26	SU	5.46	15.8%	9.5%	4.5%	.342	5.72	18.7%	10.3%	58	+0.26	3.48	191	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.3%	13.3%	1.60	5.94
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*