Will Geerdes
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
+0.2
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%11.9%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 5 | 2 | 14 | 69 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 18.2% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 4.40 | 3.51 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 34 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 59 | 26 | 4 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 4.58 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 34 | 0 | 51 | 227 | 48 | 24 | 7 | 16.3% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 5.79 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SD | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SD | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SD | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 38 | 19 | 6 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 33 | 18 | 6 | 20.3% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SD | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 5.20 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 2 | 121 | 531 | 94 | 69 | 15 | 17.7% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 4.77 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 3 | 200 | 880 | 156 | 114 | 25 | 17.7% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 4.77 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Geerdes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.59 | 22.1% | 12.2% | 153 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 91 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 91 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 90 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 90 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 89 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 88 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 88 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 87 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 87 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 87 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 87 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 87 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 86 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 86 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 86 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .300 | 3.68 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.92 | 3.09 | 377 | 86 |
| Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .307 | 5.33 | 13.0% | 4.1% | 59 | +1.59 | 3.36 | 204 | 86 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.