Jhonny Felix prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jhonny Felix P Salem Red Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%21.5%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	5	0	3	23	6	6	1	0%	0.6	26.1%	26.1%	0.0%	4.3%	30.00	6.59	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	5	0	3	23	6	6	1	0%	0.6	26.1%	26.1%	0.0%	4.3%	30.00	9.43	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	39	198	45	51	2	0%	1.2	16.1%	31.1%	-15.1%	1.5%	7.91	6.51	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	39	198	45	51	2	0%	1.2	22.7%	25.8%	-3.0%	1.0%	7.91	5.40	—
2023	24	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	24	1	45	210	42	33	5	4%	1.9	14.8%	18.5%	-3.7%	3.1%	6.55	5.90	—
2023	24	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	24	1	45	210	42	33	5	4%	1.9	14.8%	18.5%	-3.7%	3.1%	6.55	5.90	—
2023	24	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	24	1	45	210	42	33	5	4%	1.9	20.0%	15.7%	4.3%	2.4%	6.55	4.86	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	13.2%	8.4%	3.0%	4.98	4.98	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	25	0	26	111	24	14	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	3.1%	4.96	5.00	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	3.1%	4.96	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	40	9	5	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	3.1%	4.96	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	105	21	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	3.1%	4.96	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		60	1	87	431	69	107	10	2%	1.4	16.0%	24.7%	-8.7%	2.4%	7.97	6.22	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	2	200	991	158	245	24	2%	1.5	16.0%	24.7%	-8.7%	2.4%	7.97	6.22	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhonny Felix (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	21.5%	13.2%	3.0%	—	5.00	21.6%	8.7%	26	+0.02	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	89
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	87
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	85
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	84
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	84
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	84
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	83
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	82
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.5%	13.0%	1.18	4.97
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57