Matt Wyatt prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Matt Wyatt P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.2%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	35	0	55	237	59	30	3	0%	1.6	18.4%	14.9%	3.5%	1.5%	4.75	4.28	—
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	35	0	55	237	59	30	3	0%	1.6	18.4%	14.9%	3.5%	1.5%	4.75	4.28	—
2023	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	35	0	55	237	59	30	3	0%	1.6	24.9%	12.7%	12.2%	1.3%	4.75	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	11.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	37	0	38	163	37	19	5	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	15	0	16	68	15	8	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	16	69	16	8	2	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.67	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	97	24	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.67	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		35	0	55	237	44	35	4	0%	1.6	18.4%	14.9%	3.5%	1.5%	4.75	4.28	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	0	200	862	159	129	13	0%	1.6	18.4%	14.9%	3.5%	1.5%	4.75	4.28	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Wyatt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.2%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.67	22.5%	11.0%	38	-0.06	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	92
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	91
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	91
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	90
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	88
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	88
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	87
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	87
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	87
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	87
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	87
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	87
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	87
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	87
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	87
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	86
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	22.4%	11.7%	1.15	4.70
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43