Arij Fransen — OGILVIE

Arij Fransen P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%13.4%

BB%17.7%

K-BB%-4.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	9	5	33	135	43	3	3	56%	3.7	21.7%	2.8%	18.9%	3.0%	3.78	3.29	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	9	5	33	135	43	3	3	56%	3.7	31.9%	2.2%	29.6%	2.2%	3.78	1.96	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	13	65	306	46	30	13	59%	2.9	10.8%	11.9%	-1.1%	6.2%	6.96	7.11	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	13	65	306	46	30	13	59%	2.9	15.0%	9.8%	5.2%	4.2%	6.96	5.68	—
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	24	16	81	378	85	36	8	67%	3.4	16.6%	11.2%	5.4%	2.6%	6.09	4.54	—
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	24	16	81	378	85	36	8	67%	3.4	16.6%	11.2%	5.4%	2.6%	6.09	4.54	—
2023	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	24	16	81	378	85	36	8	67%	3.4	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	2.1%	6.09	3.62	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	68	313	56	38	1	0%	2.2	13.7%	13.8%	-0.1%	0.3%	4.10	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	68	313	56	38	1	0%	2.2	13.7%	13.8%	-0.1%	0.3%	4.10	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	68	313	56	38	1	0%	2.2	17.9%	12.1%	5.8%	0.3%	4.10	3.32	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	30	0	55	265	49	41	3	0%	1.8	15.0%	17.0%	-2.0%	1.3%	6.34	4.72	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	30	0	55	265	49	41	3	0%	1.8	15.0%	17.0%	-2.0%	1.3%	6.34	4.72	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	30	0	55	265	49	41	3	0%	1.8	18.5%	15.5%	3.0%	1.1%	6.34	4.26	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	CIN	6	0	6	25	3	4	1	0%	1.0	13.4%	17.7%	-4.4%	2.4%	5.90	5.90	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	67	0	70	296	45	50	7	0%	1.0	15.2%	16.8%	-1.6%	2.4%	5.70	5.67	-0.9
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	66	0	69	291	46	48	7	0%	1.0	15.8%	16.3%	-0.5%	2.5%	5.60	5.60	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	64	0	67	282	45	46	7	0%	1.0	16.1%	16.1%	-0.1%	2.7%	5.59	5.62	-0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	270	43	44	8	0%	1.0	16.0%	16.2%	-0.2%	2.8%	5.66	5.72	-0.8
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	30	0	31	131	20	22	3	0%	1.0	15.2%	16.8%	-1.6%	2.4%	5.70	5.67	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	42	0	44	186	29	30	5	0%	1.0	15.8%	16.3%	-0.5%	2.5%	5.60	5.60	-0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	49	0	51	215	35	35	6	0%	1.0	16.1%	16.1%	-0.1%	2.7%	5.59	5.62	-0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	50	0	52	220	35	36	6	0%	1.0	16.0%	16.2%	-0.2%	2.8%	5.66	5.72	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	119	122	20	0%	1.0	15.9%	16.3%	-0.5%	2.6%	5.63	5.27	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	134	138	23	0%	1.1	15.9%	16.3%	-0.5%	2.6%	5.63	5.27	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		116	34	303	1397	208	171	37	29%	2.6	14.9%	12.2%	2.6%	2.7%	5.62	4.86	-3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	22	200	923	137	113	25	29%	2.6	14.9%	12.2%	2.6%	2.7%	5.62	4.86	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Arij Fransen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	13.4%	17.7%	2.4%	—	5.63	15.7%	-0.7%	206	-0.27	—	—	—
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	79
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	77
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	76
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	75
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	74
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	74
David Lucroy R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	23	SU	4.99	15.8%	16.8%	2.0%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	103	74
Michael Kelly R 2018 · 6.36 FIP	25	SW	6.36	14.6%	24.2%	2.6%	.299	3.51	24.8%	15.9%	45	-2.85	2.77	666	73
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	73
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	73
Taylor Hawkins R 2017 · 5.98 FIP	23	SU	5.98	7.4%	19.5%	1.9%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	5.38	112	73
Brady Schanuel R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	25	SW	5.51	17.9%	23.5%	1.7%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	132	73
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	73
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	73
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	73
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	73
Tommy DeJuneas R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	25	SU	5.65	13.7%	17.6%	2.7%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	178	73
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	73
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	15.3%	16.7%	0.99	5.69
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77