Brayden Spears

P South Bend Cubs

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	ACHC	36	0	60	3.13	3.07	21.2%	8.9%	—	K 15.7% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.99
2026	25	A+CHC	23	2	66	4.34	3.60	25.2%	9.9%	—	K 19.4% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	67	0	70	5.19	5.19	17.0%	12.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBCHC	24	0	25	5.12	5.14	17.6%	11.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBCHC	37	0	39	5.12	5.16	18.0%	11.8%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsConor Steinbaugh (age 25) · Stephen Johnson (age 25) · D.J. Carrasco (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%17.0%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	36	0	60	259	55	23	3	0%	1.7	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	1.6%	3.13	3.99	—
2025	24	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	36	0	60	259	55	23	3	0%	1.7	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	1.6%	3.13	3.99	—
2025	24	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	36	0	60	259	55	23	3	0%	1.7	21.2%	8.9%	12.4%	1.2%	3.13	3.07	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	23	2	66	282	71	28	7	9%	2.9	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.1%	4.34	4.61	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	23	2	66	282	71	28	7	9%	2.9	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.1%	4.34	4.61	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	23	2	66	282	71	28	7	9%	2.9	25.2%	9.9%	15.2%	2.5%	4.34	3.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	67	0	70	296	50	36	9	0%	1.0	17.0%	12.1%	4.9%	2.9%	5.19	5.19	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	66	0	69	291	51	35	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.9%	5.8%	3.0%	5.12	5.14	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	64	0	67	282	51	33	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	3.1%	5.12	5.16	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	61	0	64	270	49	32	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	3.2%	5.18	5.25	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	24	0	25	106	19	13	3	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.9%	5.8%	3.0%	5.12	5.14	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	37	0	39	165	30	19	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	3.1%	5.12	5.16	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	43	0	45	190	34	23	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	3.2%	5.18	5.25	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	110	463	83	55	15	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	3.1%	5.14	4.81	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	100	27	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	3.1%	5.14	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		59	2	127	541	95	59	13	3%	2.1	17.6%	11.0%	6.7%	2.4%	3.77	4.32	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	3	200	854	151	94	20	3%	2.1	17.6%	11.0%	6.7%	2.4%	3.77	4.32	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayden Spears (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	17.0%	12.1%	2.9%	—	5.18	17.9%	6.0%	200	-0.01	—	—	—
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	89
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	87
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	87
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	84
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	83
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	83
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	83
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	82
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	82
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	82
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	82
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	82
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	82
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	81
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.6%	11.9%	1.19	5.15
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*