Adam Fogel

OF Birmingham Barons

Age 28 R/R 6'5" / 220 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	27	AACWS	91	.250/.326/.512	5	1	82	—	.207/.270/.415
2026	27	ROKCWS	17	.462/.562/1.000	2	1	220	—	.429/.500/.929
2027PROJ2% MLB	28	MLBCWS	3	.225/.286/.377	0	0	84	-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	29	MLBCWS	44	.223/.285/.372	1	0	83	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO92

wRC+74

wOBA69

K%39

Whiff%32

BB%22

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsBrett Carroll (age 28) · Jerad Head (age 28) · Nick Gorneault (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .286 / .377

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP291

ISO161

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	27	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	91	80	20	6	0	5	7	24	2	1	1	250	326	512	838	262	288	26	8	358	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	17	13	6	1	0	2	3	1	0	1	0	462	562	1.000	1.562	538	364	6	18	603	220	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	27	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	91	82	17	5	0	4	5	29	2	1	1	207	270	415	684	207	259	32	5	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	17	14	6	1	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	429	500	929	1.429	500	262	6	12	494	220	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	108	97	23	6	0	6	6	31	2	2	1	237	295	485	780	247	274	29	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	108	93	26	7	0	7	10	25	2	2	1	280	362	581	943	301	302	23	9	397	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	108	99	23	6	0	6	6	31	2	2	1	232	295	475	770	242	259	29	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	108	99	23	6	0	6	6	31	2	2	1	232	295	475	770	242	259	29	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CWS	2%	200	183	42	9	1	6	13	57	2	3	1	224	285	374	658	150	290	28	6	293	84	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	CWS	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	225	286	377	663	152	291	33	0	294	84	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	23%	194	177	39	8	1	5	13	55	2	2	1	222	284	369	653	147	289	28	7	291	83	-4	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	23%	44	41	9	2	0	1	3	13	0	0	0	223	285	372	657	149	290	30	7	292	83	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	44	41	9	2	0	1	3	13	0	0	0	220	273	341	614	122	296	30	7	292	88	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	134	30	0	15	44	192	0	0	0	221	274	345	619	124	298	30	7	292	88	-13	+0	-5	-4	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	438	398	90	20	2	15	28	125	6	6	3	226	287	399	687	173	286	29	6	299	88	-7	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	134	30	3	22	42	186	9	9	4	227	289	399	688	173	288	29	6	299	88	-13	+0	-3	-4	+14	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adam Fogel (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	222/283/370	149	290	4	2	29%	7%	84	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brett Carroll 2011 · MLB	28	40→46	48→55	45→50	43	206/277/346	140	257	15	8	26%	6%	76	-0.4	210/274/349	139	266	16	11	27%	7%	76	-0.4	201/265/338	137	255	17	11	27%	7%	68	-0.7
✕Jerad Head 2011 · AAA	28	47→42	49→55	47→50	40	237/287/392	156	288	16	7	24%	5%	90	+0.6	223/272/368	145	273	17	7	25%	4%	80	-0.2	212/262/347	135	257	16	6	24%	4%	68	-0.7
✕Nick Gorneault 2008 · AAA	29	45→48	49→55	48→50	44	227/283/377	150	290	17	12	28%	7%	85	+0.2	205/260/338	133	270	15	11	29%	7%	68	-1.0	190/244/318	127	249	15	9	29%	6%	54	-1.4
✕Jack Mayfield 2019 · AAA	28	42→45	49→55	46→50	40	219/260/366	147	265	17	8	25%	5%	74	-0.5	223/270/395	172	261	21	8	24%	5%	85	+0.2	214/259/386	172	244	21	9	23%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43→42	46→50	49→50	42	216/272/344	128	288	14	11	30%	6%	74	-0.6	203/269/353	150	324	19	14	41%	7%	75	-0.5	141/210/279	138	225	21	18	47%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Niko Vasquez 2017 · AAA	28	47→42	51→50	45	43	241/291/403	162	295	19	7	25%	6%	94	+0.9	226/282/359	133	297	15	9	28%	6%	80	-0.1	205/265/309	104	278	13	8	30%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Mike Bianucci 2014 · AAA	28	41→40	53→60	43→40	39	221/270/389	168	270	22	4	27%	5%	84	+0.1	228/267/411	183	270	25	5	26%	5%	87	+0.4	220/252/409	189	250	28	2	25%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Stuart Fairchild 2024 · MLB	28	46→43	49→50	52→55	45	228/312/380	152	304	15	16	29%	8%	97	+1.1	225/305/369	144	290	15	23	26%	8%	92	+0.7	216/307/360	144	270	16	31	25%	9%	89	+0.3
✕Guillermo Rodriguez 2006 · AA	28	43	49→50	51→45	39	221/278/370	149	284	16	9	28%	5%	82	-0.0	225/287/366	141	261	15	6	20%	7%	84	+0.2	222/287/355	133	247	15	2	17%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Deibinson Romero 2015 · AAA	28	45	46→50	47→40	48	225/293/354	128	274	13	3	23%	8%	83	+0.1	223/290/351	128	263	13	4	20%	8%	82	-0.0	217/285/335	118	243	14	1	17%	7%	76	-0.1
✕Ben Guez 2015 · AAA	28	41→51	50	45→50	42	211/285/367	156	285	18	10	32%	7%	84	+0.2	210/287/359	149	309	17	16	36%	8%	83	+0.1	206/303/366	160	266	22	29	30%	11%	86	+0.1
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2014 · AAA	28	38→45	52→55	47→50	42	204/258/381	178	252	19	8	28%	6%	77	-0.3	219/265/380	161	254	17	8	21%	5%	79	-0.2	229/273/404	176	255	22	11	20%	5%	86	+0.2
✕Cam Devanney 2024 · AAA	27	43→42	48→50	43→45	45	219/284/368	149	274	15	7	26%	7%	84	+0.1	216/277/360	144	293	16	8	30%	6%	79	-0.2	205/266/344	140	282	16	7	32%	6%	69	-0.8
✕Nick Podkul 2024 · AAA	27	43	51→50	49→50	49	219/310/379	160	281	19	6	28%	9%	97	+1.1	208/293/334	126	310	14	5	35%	9%	80	-0.2	192/282/316	124	291	15	2	36%	10%	68	-0.5
✕Mitch Nay 2022 · AAA	28	39→49	51→50	45→30	45	206/274/361	156	264	19	4	30%	8%	78	-0.3	200/264/329	129	296	15	6	36%	7%	67	-1.1	136/194/223	87	214	13	0	42%	6%	13	-1.2
✕Dayron Varona 2016 · AA	28	48→36	47→55	45→50	40	242/277/387	145	285	14	8	21%	4%	84	+0.2	213/250/345	132	268	13	11	25%	4%	65	-1.2	185/218/308	123	229	13	11	26%	2%	41	-2.3
✕Matt Lloyd 2024 · AA	28	43→42	48→45	48→50	41	214/281/353	139	307	16	9	34%	7%	79	-0.2	214/281/334	120	287	12	12	28%	8%	74	-0.5	205/275/320	116	273	13	12	28%	8%	69	-0.5
✕Narciso Crook 2023 · AAA	28	44→43	50	48→50	39	216/285/370	154	316	17	14	36%	7%	85	+0.2	208/286/343	135	332	14	15	39%	8%	79	-0.2	169/264/285	115	292	12	17	42%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Devin Mann 2024 · AAA	27	45	50	45	48	223/305/381	158	297	16	5	29%	9%	95	+0.9	212/290/332	120	283	12	6	28%	8%	78	-0.3	193/274/289	96	254	10	4	27%	8%	60	-0.9
✕Shawn Bowman 2012 · AAA	27	46→42	49→50	44→40	37	233/273/379	146	305	17	4	30%	5%	82	-0.0	215/257/333	118	302	13	5	32%	5%	65	-1.2	200/239/304	104	282	12	1	33%	4%	49	-1.8