Mitch Nay
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 25 | AAA/AACIN | 393 | .278/.344/.504 | 17 | 1 | 82 | — | .220/.268/.388 |
| 2021 | 27 | AALAA | 430 | .237/.347/.480 | 23 | 1 | 65 | — | .184/.266/.337 |
| 2022 | 28 | A+/ROKLAA | 147 | .189/.272/.303 | 4 | 0 | 13 | — | .139/.197/.241 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 258 | 230 | 69 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 300 | 369 | 426 | 795 | 126 | 328 | 14 | 10 | 353 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 40 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 250 | 216 | 466 | 27 | 250 | 22 | 8 | 220 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 518 | 473 | 135 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 79 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 285 | 344 | 389 | 733 | 104 | 335 | 15 | 8 | 328 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 437 | 391 | 95 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 243 | 308 | 353 | 661 | 110 | 282 | 17 | 7 | 293 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 130 | 91 | 221 | 154 | 39 | 0 | 111 | -70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 275 | 252 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 271 | 393 | 664 | 171 | 241 | 21 | 5 | 288 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 259 | 221 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 43 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 262 | 366 | 389 | 755 | 127 | 299 | 17 | 12 | 342 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 281 | 251 | 68 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 57 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 271 | 344 | 418 | 762 | 147 | 330 | 20 | 9 | 339 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 109 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 275 | 360 | 635 | 150 | 243 | 24 | 8 | 286 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 284 | 253 | 77 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 25 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 304 | 371 | 561 | 933 | 257 | 327 | 17 | 9 | 400 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 430 | 367 | 87 | 20 | 0 | 23 | 59 | 113 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 347 | 480 | 827 | 243 | 276 | 26 | 14 | 364 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 132 | 119 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 242 | 227 | 469 | 67 | 243 | 36 | 8 | 223 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 15 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 462 | 533 | 1.000 | 1.533 | 538 | 400 | 7 | 13 | 637 | 199 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 258 | 239 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 282 | 331 | 613 | 96 | 268 | 19 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 40 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 200 | 184 | 384 | 26 | 239 | 32 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 518 | 486 | 125 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 106 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 257 | 299 | 342 | 641 | 84 | 318 | 20 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 437 | 398 | 82 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 112 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 262 | 296 | 558 | 90 | 258 | 26 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 87 | 45 | 132 | 122 | 57 | 0 | 65 | -70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 275 | 257 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 212 | 304 | 515 | 128 | 207 | 29 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 259 | 230 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 51 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 315 | 339 | 654 | 104 | 274 | 20 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 281 | 259 | 57 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 78 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 276 | 332 | 608 | 112 | 298 | 28 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 109 | 104 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 202 | 269 | 471 | 106 | 207 | 29 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 284 | 261 | 63 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 60 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 293 | 433 | 726 | 192 | 269 | 21 | 6 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 430 | 386 | 71 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 40 | 135 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 184 | 266 | 337 | 603 | 153 | 238 | 31 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 132 | 123 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 174 | 171 | 345 | 57 | 202 | 46 | 5 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 15 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 400 | 857 | 1.257 | 500 | 280 | 7 | 7 | 463 | 199 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 258 | 239 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 282 | 331 | 613 | 96 | 273 | 19 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 258 | 230 | 69 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 300 | 369 | 426 | 795 | 126 | 328 | 14 | 10 | 353 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 523 | 130 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 118 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 249 | 292 | 327 | 619 | 78 | 314 | 21 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 558 | 510 | 142 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 88 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 278 | 337 | 376 | 713 | 98 | 329 | 16 | 8 | 321 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 437 | 398 | 82 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 112 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 262 | 296 | 558 | 90 | 269 | 26 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 437 | 391 | 95 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 243 | 308 | 353 | 661 | 110 | 282 | 17 | 7 | 293 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 87 | 45 | 132 | 111 | 57 | 0 | 65 | -70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 130 | 91 | 221 | 154 | 39 | 0 | 111 | -70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 275 | 257 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 212 | 304 | 515 | 128 | 213 | 29 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 275 | 252 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 271 | 393 | 664 | 171 | 241 | 21 | 5 | 288 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 540 | 489 | 111 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 129 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 295 | 335 | 630 | 108 | 287 | 24 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 540 | 472 | 126 | 28 | 2 | 11 | 56 | 100 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 267 | 354 | 405 | 759 | 138 | 315 | 19 | 10 | 341 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 365 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 93 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 270 | 397 | 667 | 175 | 256 | 24 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 393 | 353 | 98 | 25 | 2 | 17 | 34 | 74 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 344 | 504 | 849 | 227 | 305 | 19 | 9 | 368 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 430 | 386 | 71 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 40 | 135 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 184 | 266 | 337 | 603 | 153 | 239 | 31 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 430 | 367 | 87 | 20 | 0 | 23 | 59 | 113 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 347 | 480 | 827 | 243 | 276 | 26 | 14 | 364 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 147 | 137 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 190 | 212 | 402 | 80 | 208 | 42 | 5 | 188 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 147 | 132 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 272 | 303 | 575 | 114 | 263 | 33 | 9 | 265 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 258 | 240 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 282 | 329 | 612 | 96 | 268 | 19 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 521 | 130 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 118 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 250 | 292 | 328 | 620 | 79 | 312 | 21 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 437 | 404 | 82 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 112 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 203 | 262 | 292 | 554 | 89 | 258 | 26 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 87 | 45 | 132 | 122 | 57 | 0 | 65 | -70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 275 | 261 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 212 | 299 | 511 | 126 | 207 | 29 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 540 | 488 | 111 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 129 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 295 | 336 | 631 | 109 | 286 | 24 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 366 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 93 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 270 | 396 | 666 | 175 | 252 | 24 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 430 | 384 | 71 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 40 | 135 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 266 | 339 | 604 | 154 | 238 | 31 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 147 | 136 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 190 | 213 | 404 | 81 | 210 | 42 | 5 | 188 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3061 | 2816 | 595 | 120 | 10 | 60 | 189 | 793 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 211 | 267 | 325 | 592 | 114 | 269 | 26 | 6 | 261 | 63 | -135 | -0 | +0 | +11 | +66 | -5.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 126 | 25 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 168 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 267 | 324 | 591 | 114 | 267 | 26 | 6 | 261 | 63 | -29 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 132 PAwOBA .218 → .157 (−61)K% 35.6% → 46.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.61% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 45.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.027 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.940 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.940 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.052 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×0.940 | 17.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.939 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×0.940 | 2.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.814 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.940 | 2.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 110, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 109, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .218 → .157; ISO .067 → .054; BABIP .243 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Angels · 15 PAwOBA .618 → .463 (−155)K% 6.7% → 9.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.011 | ×1.440 | — | — | 9.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.964 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 8.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 18.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.044 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 5.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.943 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 12.95% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 109, 3B 107, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .618 → .463; ISO .538 → .421; BABIP .400 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 430 PAwOBA .356 → .264 (−92)K% 26.3% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.28% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.72% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.968 | 9.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.32% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×0.981 | ×0.968 | 15.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷0.947 | ×0.870 | ×0.981 | ×0.968 | 6.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.06% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 5.47% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .356 → .264; ISO .243 → .160; BABIP .276 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 284 PAwOBA .393 → .316 (−78)K% 16.9% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.90% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.45% | ÷0.949 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 17.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.73% | ÷1.160 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.34% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.12% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 93, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .393 → .316; ISO .257 → .203; BABIP .327 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAALouisville Bats · 109 PAwOBA .278 → .218 (−60)K% 23.9% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.85% | ÷0.960 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.151 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 16.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 3.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 4.83% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 92, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .278 → .218; ISO .150 → .124; BABIP .243 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Daytona Tortugas · 281 PAwOBA .330 → .272 (−58)K% 20.3% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.28% | ÷1.035 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.19% | ÷0.994 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.16% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×0.978 | 20.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.28% | ÷1.088 | ×0.960 | ×1.030 | ×0.978 | 8.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.047 | ×0.810 | ×1.030 | ×0.978 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.58% | ÷1.058 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 2.10% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 118, 3B 109, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .330 → .272; ISO .147 → .118; BABIP .330 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 259 PAwOBA .336 → .293 (−43)K% 16.6% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.60% | ÷1.030 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.97% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 8.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.93% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.60% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×0.998 | 21.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.62% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×1.031 | ×0.998 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | ×1.031 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.37% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.96% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .336 → .293; ISO .127 → .115; BABIP .299 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ALansing Lugnuts · 275 PAwOBA .286 → .225 (−61)K% 20.7% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.73% | ÷0.960 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 3.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×0.980 | 16.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×0.980 | 3.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×0.980 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 4.50% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .286 → .225; ISO .171 → .135; BABIP .241 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).