Josh Rivera — OGILVIE

Josh RiveraSS Buffalo Bisons

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION300 act + 200 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†43

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .242 / .295

PA200

HR4

K%38

BB%8

BABIP279

ISO115

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	103	95	17	5	0	1	6	38	1	1	1	179	235	263	498	84	281	37	6	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	103	92	23	8	0	2	9	26	1	1	1	250	324	402	726	152	323	25	9	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	337	43	5	1	3	28	137	1	9	2	128	197	175	372	47	201	37	8	173	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	325	55	7	2	4	40	105	1	9	2	169	262	240	502	71	234	29	11	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	440	395	69	10	1	8	40	186	1	2	1	175	252	266	518	91	300	42	9	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	440	379	83	16	1	7	56	148	1	2	1	219	321	322	643	103	336	34	13	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	TOR	—	300	279	52	13	1	8	19	115	0	3	1	186	238	326	564	140	280	38	6	243	44	-19	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.7
YTD	25	AAA	TOR	—	300	270	60	16	1	10	28	96	0	3	1	222	295	400	695	178	303	32	9	308	94	-2	+0	+0	+3	+8	1.0
ROS	25	AAA	TOR	10%	200	183	33	7	1	4	15	76	0	2	1	180	242	295	538	115	276	38	8	241	43	-13	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.5
ROS	25	MLB	TOR	10%	20	19	3	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	158	200	211	411	53	277	40	5	241	42	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
FULL	25	AAA	TOR	—	320	298	55	14	1	8	20	123	0	3	1	185	236	319	555	134	280	38	6	243	44	-20	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.8
TOT	25	AAA	TOR	—	500	462	85	20	2	12	34	191	0	5	2	184	240	314	554	130	280	38	7	242	44	-32	+0	+0	+5	+14	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	TOR	35%	365	333	62	13	1	8	28	133	1	4	1	186	251	303	555	117	275	36	8	249	49	-21	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.7
2028	27	MLB	TOR	44%	388	354	67	14	1	9	30	137	1	4	1	189	255	311	565	121	277	35	8	255	53	-21	+0	+0	+4	+11	-0.5
2029	28	MLB	TOR	49%	401	365	69	14	1	9	32	140	1	4	1	189	256	307	563	118	277	35	8	257	55	-20	+0	-1	+4	+11	-0.5
2027	26	MLB	TOR	35%	127	116	21	4	0	3	10	46	0	1	0	181	246	293	539	112	276	36	8	248	48	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2028	27	MLB	TOR	44%	171	155	30	6	1	4	13	61	1	2	1	194	260	323	583	129	278	36	8	253	52	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.3
2029	28	MLB	TOR	49%	196	177	34	7	1	4	16	68	1	2	1	192	263	311	574	119	278	35	8	255	54	-10	+0	-0	+2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	514	467	88	18	2	11	40	183	2	5	2	188	255	306	562	118	279	36	8	252	51	-28	+0	-0	+6	+15	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	112	23	3	14	51	231	3	6	3	190	258	310	568	120	280	36	8	252	51	-36	+0	-0	+7	+18	-1.1
Career	—			—	2265	2062	360	68	6	42	179	847	6	26	8	175	243	274	517	100	268	37	8	233	37	-162	+2	-1	+24	+64	-7.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	104	20	2	12	51	243	2	7	2	176	243	277	520	101	271	37	8	233	37	-46	+1	-0	+7	+18	-2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	103	92	23	8	0	2	9	26	1	1	1	250	324	402	726	152	323	25	9	322	105	+1	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	325	55	7	2	4	40	105	1	9	2	169	262	240	502	71	234	29	11	237	40	-25	+1	—	—	+10	-1.4
2025	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	394	336	76	15	1	6	53	124	1	1	1	226	333	330	664	104	337	31	13	304	91	-4	-0	—	—	+11	0.7
2025	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	46	43	7	1	0	1	3	24	0	1	0	163	217	256	473	93	333	52	7	217	24	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	526	11	5	189	253	306	+6	+3	-0.8	-0.4
	/162	664	15	6	189	253	306	+7.1	+3.8	-1.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Rivera (OGILVIE)	25	35	40	45	60	184/240/314	130	280	12	5	38%	7%	44	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	38	40→45	45→50	44	181/274/268	88	287	8	7	37%	9%	53	-1.5	196/278/301	105	300	9	11	35%	8%	62	-0.9	171/260/279	108	256	10	13	35%	9%	46	-1.0
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	34	40→45	50→45	38	172/234/264	91	270	8	7	38%	7%	33	-2.9	198/262/311	113	286	10	8	32%	7%	57	-1.2	182/252/296	114	256	10	5	31%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Cooper Johnson 2023 · AA	25	37	39→50	45→40	42	171/257/255	84	300	6	5	41%	9%	42	-2.3	183/266/304	121	296	13	6	39%	9%	58	-1.2	171/259/303	132	252	15	4	36%	10%	52	-0.7
✕Trevor Schwecke 2023 · AAA	25	39	44→45	41→50	39	195/257/308	113	291	11	6	35%	7%	54	-1.4	218/275/332	114	316	10	14	32%	6%	68	-0.5	223/280/335	112	320	9	17	31%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	36	44→45	47→50	43	187/255/303	116	259	12	5	32%	8%	53	-1.5	191/267/312	121	296	14	14	37%	9%	60	-1.0	169/257/271	103	275	11	16	40%	10%	43	-1.1
✕Eric Yang 2023 · AAA	25	38	39→40	47→40	43	183/265/268	86	275	7	6	34%	8%	48	-1.9	196/271/271	75	301	5	6	34%	8%	51	-1.7	178/263/236	57	284	5	1	35%	8%	36	-0.6
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	36	37→40	45→40	39	177/253/247	71	262	5	5	32%	6%	38	-2.6	192/271/279	87	273	7	6	30%	7%	53	-1.5	147/251/218	70	204	5	0	28%	8%	28	-0.7
✕Dennis Ortega 2022 · AAA	25	40	39→45	47→45	38	197/244/276	79	285	7	5	33%	5%	40	-2.4	209/261/303	94	327	8	10	36%	6%	54	-1.4	187/240/258	72	308	5	10	39%	6%	30	-1.0
✕Rylan Sandoval 2013 · AA	25	38	41→40	45	35	187/242/284	97	286	9	5	36%	5%	42	-2.3	210/261/294	84	310	6	8	32%	6%	52	-1.6	210/261/280	69	308	5	8	31%	5%	44	-0.8
✕Cadyn Grenier 2022 · AAA	25	41→39	40	48→50	39	190/264/282	92	318	8	10	40%	8%	51	-1.7	201/280/301	100	296	8	13	32%	9%	63	-0.9	184/275/280	96	259	7	16	29%	10%	53	-1.0
✕Nick Quintana 2023 · AA	25	38→39	43→45	42→45	48	190/274/298	109	258	11	5	30%	10%	60	-1.0	194/275/299	105	281	10	7	32%	9%	61	-1.0	106/214/187	81	163	7	0	37%	8%	7	-1.1
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	37→39	42→45	47→50	38	186/242/289	103	277	10	12	35%	6%	43	-2.2	197/252/301	104	308	9	13	37%	6%	50	-1.8	206/260/308	103	297	8	9	32%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Jean Luc Blaquiere 2011 · AAA	25	39	40	40→45	36	191/241/278	86	285	8	4	35%	5%	39	-2.5	205/278/293	88	300	7	5	31%	8%	59	-1.1	203/315/285	82	271	6	0	24%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Wade Gaynor 2013 · AA	25	37→42	43→50	47→50	41	185/255/295	109	265	10	6	32%	7%	50	-1.7	186/237/311	125	273	12	11	35%	5%	46	-2.0	172/214/296	124	249	13	12	36%	4%	29	-2.4
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	38	43→45	42→45	46	189/279/295	106	260	11	6	30%	9%	62	-0.9	198/275/331	133	251	15	10	27%	7%	69	-0.4	185/264/327	142	224	17	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→33	43→45	48→45	41	191/257/300	109	268	10	9	32%	7%	53	-1.5	202/261/308	106	298	10	7	33%	7%	56	-1.3	189/237/299	111	279	11	0	35%	5%	42	-0.7
✕Max Burt 2022 · AAA	25	42	43→45	49→55	37	207/253/314	108	292	10	9	32%	5%	53	-1.5	193/248/316	123	281	14	21	35%	6%	53	-1.5	163/230/248	84	244	7	29	34%	6%	26	-1.3
✕Caleb Hamilton 2021 · AAA	26	39	42→45	45	42	196/255/296	101	271	9	9	30%	7%	50	-1.7	183/269/319	136	279	17	6	38%	10%	63	-0.8	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Austin Rei 2019 · AA	25	38	40	40	40	187/261/280	94	277	7	4	33%	7%	50	-1.8	192/262/285	93	308	8	7	37%	7%	51	-1.7	123/204/184	61	206	5	0	40%	8%	-2	-1.0
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	35→34	45→50	47→50	37	180/243/296	116	289	13	11	40%	7%	46	-2.0	189/248/293	104	291	9	10	36%	7%	46	-2.0	146/203/235	89	219	3	6	33%	7%	8	-1.2