Josh RiveraSS
Buffalo Bisons
Age 25
R/R
6'0" / 215 lbs
AAA
HR +12%BB +4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
wRC+†35
AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .251 / .266
PA320
HR5
K%38
BB%9
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
35→35
PWR
40→40
SPD
45→45
EYE
51↗60
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.4peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-7M | $-17M | -$10M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 103 | 95 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .179 | .235 | .263 | .498 | .084 | .262 | 33 | 6 | .238 | 40 | -7 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 368 | 337 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 135 | 1 | 9 | 2 | .134 | .202 | .181 | .383 | .047 | .209 | 37 | 8 | .179 | -5 | -44 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +10 | -2.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | 2 teams | 440 | 396 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 183 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .174 | .250 | .253 | .503 | .078 | .301 | 42 | 9 | .231 | 35 | -32 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +12 | -1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 68 | 63 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .143 | .206 | .270 | .476 | .127 | .179 | 32 | 7 | .212 | 20 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 252 | 227 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 95 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .172 | .248 | .264 | .512 | .093 | .266 | 38 | 9 | .236 | 38 | -18 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.8 |
| TOT | 25 | MLB | TOR | 320 | 290 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 117 | 1 | 4 | 1 | .166 | .239 | .266 | .505 | .100 | .250 | 37 | 8 | .231 | 35 | -24 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +9 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB 25% | TOR | 365 | 328 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 116 | 1 | 5 | 1 | .183 | .260 | .293 | .552 | .110 | .252 | 32 | 9 | .252 | 51 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB 43% | TOR | 388 | 347 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .184 | .265 | .291 | .556 | .107 | .256 | 31 | 9 | .258 | 55 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB 52% | TOR | 400 | 358 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 124 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .190 | .270 | .304 | .574 | .115 | .257 | 31 | 9 | .260 | 57 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB 63% | TOR | 400 | 358 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 124 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .190 | .270 | .304 | .574 | .115 | .257 | 31 | 9 | .259 | 57 | -20 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB 73% | TOR | 398 | 356 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 125 | 2 | 5 | 0 | .185 | .266 | .292 | .558 | .107 | .256 | 31 | 9 | .256 | 54 | -21 | +1 | -2 | +4 | +11 | -0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB 81% | TOR | 387 | 346 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 123 | 2 | 4 | 0 | .182 | .263 | .289 | .552 | .107 | .254 | 32 | 9 | .252 | 51 | -21 | +1 | -3 | +4 | +11 | -0.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 370 | 332 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 120 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .178 | .256 | .277 | .533 | .099 | .252 | 32 | 9 | .248 | 48 | -22 | +1 | -4 | +4 | +10 | -1.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 341 | 306 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 113 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .173 | .251 | .268 | .519 | .095 | .250 | 33 | 9 | .243 | 44 | -22 | +1 | -4 | +4 | +10 | -1.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 298 | 268 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 101 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .172 | .250 | .265 | .515 | .093 | .248 | 34 | 9 | .236 | 39 | -20 | +0 | -5 | +3 | +8 | -1.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4510 | 4054 | 717 | 123 | 12 | 82 | 403 | 1514 | 18 | 52 | 9 | .177 | .254 | .274 | .528 | .097 | .256 | 34 | 9 | .243 | 44 | -285 | +7 | -20 | +48 | +128 | -12.4 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 584 | 104 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 58 | 218 | 3 | 7 | 1 | .178 | .256 | .277 | .533 | .099 | .258 | 34 | 9 | .243 | 44 | -41 | +1 | -3 | +7 | +18 | -1.8 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 103 | 92 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .324 | .402 | .726 | .152 | .323 | 25 | 9 | .322 | 105 | +1 | -0 | — | — | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 368 | 325 | 55 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 105 | 1 | 9 | 2 | .169 | .262 | .240 | .502 | .071 | .234 | 29 | 11 | .237 | 40 | -25 | +1 | — | — | +10 | -1.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 394 | 336 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 53 | 124 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .226 | .333 | .330 | .664 | .104 | .337 | 31 | 13 | .304 | 91 | -4 | -0 | — | — | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 46 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .163 | .217 | .256 | .473 | .093 | .333 | 52 | 7 | .217 | 24 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.2 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Josh Rivera (OGILVIE) | 25 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 60 | .176/.251/.266 | .090 | .283 | 5 | 4 | 38% | 9% | 41 | -1.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA |
25 | 35 | 41→45 | 50→45 | 39 | .177/.239/.273 | .095 | .270 | 8 | 7 | 36% | 7% | 37 | -2.6 | .200/.266/.312 | .112 | .290 | 11 | 7 | 33% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .191/.265/.302 | .110 | .270 | 10 | 5 | 31% | 8% | 52 | -0.8 |
|
✕Trevor Schwecke 2023 · AAA |
25 | 40 | 43→45 | 42→50 | 39 | .196/.257/.308 | .111 | .294 | 11 | 7 | 36% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .222/.280/.337 | .115 | .319 | 10 | 13 | 32% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .230/.289/.344 | .113 | .326 | 10 | 17 | 30% | 7% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Cooper Johnson 2023 · AA |
25 | 37 | 38→45 | 45→40 | 43 | .174/.261/.256 | .082 | .294 | 6 | 5 | 39% | 9% | 43 | -2.2 | .182/.265/.300 | .118 | .291 | 12 | 6 | 39% | 9% | 56 | -1.3 | .169/.256/.297 | .129 | .249 | 15 | 4 | 37% | 10% | 50 | -0.8 |
|
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA |
25 | 38 | 40→45 | 45→50 | 44 | .183/.273/.272 | .089 | .281 | 8 | 7 | 35% | 9% | 53 | -1.5 | .192/.275/.296 | .104 | .296 | 10 | 10 | 35% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .166/.255/.274 | .108 | .249 | 11 | 13 | 35% | 9% | 43 | -1.1 |
|
✕Cadyn Grenier 2022 · AAA |
25 | 40→37 | 42→40 | 48→50 | 39 | .191/.265/.291 | .100 | .313 | 9 | 10 | 39% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .196/.279/.296 | .100 | .292 | 8 | 13 | 33% | 9% | 61 | -1.0 | .175/.272/.270 | .095 | .250 | 7 | 16 | 30% | 10% | 50 | -1.1 |
|
✕Jacob Nottingham 2020 · MLB |
25 | 37→47 | 43→45 | 48→50 | 37 | .186/.255/.296 | .110 | .281 | 10 | 9 | 36% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .202/.271/.348 | .146 | .295 | 18 | 11 | 36% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .185/.263/.338 | .153 | .248 | 21 | 12 | 34% | 6% | 63 | -0.4 |
|
✕Rylan Sandoval 2013 · AA |
25 | 39 | 41→40 | 45 | 36 | .193/.251/.293 | .100 | .287 | 9 | 5 | 35% | 5% | 48 | -1.9 | .216/.266/.305 | .089 | .313 | 7 | 8 | 31% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .221/.270/.295 | .074 | .319 | 5 | 8 | 31% | 5% | 52 | -0.6 |
|
✕Ryan Dorow 2021 · AA |
25 | 42 | 42→45 | 49→45 | 39 | .202/.266/.305 | .102 | .304 | 10 | 9 | 35% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .208/.272/.333 | .125 | .293 | 12 | 6 | 31% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .201/.266/.328 | .127 | .277 | 12 | 3 | 30% | 7% | 60 | -0.7 |
|
✕Allan de San Miguel 2013 · AAA |
25 | 39 | 43→45 | 48→40 | 42 | .190/.266/.299 | .109 | .297 | 10 | 6 | 37% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .208/.283/.326 | .118 | .296 | 12 | 8 | 32% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .174/.248/.262 | .088 | .232 | 10 | 2 | 28% | 6% | 36 | -0.7 |
|
✕Eric Yang 2023 · AAA |
25 | 39 | 39→40 | 47→40 | 44 | .187/.270/.275 | .087 | .280 | 7 | 6 | 33% | 8% | 52 | -1.6 | .195/.271/.273 | .078 | .298 | 5 | 6 | 33% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .175/.257/.234 | .060 | .269 | 4 | 2 | 33% | 8% | 33 | -0.7 |
|
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA |
25 | 37 | 38→40 | 45→40 | 39 | .179/.256/.255 | .076 | .265 | 6 | 5 | 33% | 6% | 41 | -2.3 | .189/.268/.274 | .085 | .271 | 7 | 6 | 31% | 7% | 51 | -1.7 | .144/.247/.211 | .068 | .201 | 5 | 0 | 28% | 8% | 25 | -0.8 |
|
✕Jayson Langfels 2014 · AA |
25 | 42→32 | 43→40 | 46→50 | 37 | .201/.264/.310 | .109 | .312 | 11 | 11 | 37% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .206/.279/.294 | .088 | .335 | 7 | 14 | 38% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .202/.285/.272 | .070 | .341 | 4 | 17 | 38% | 8% | 54 | -0.8 |
|
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA |
25 | 36 | 44→45 | 46→50 | 44 | .184/.253/.297 | .113 | .252 | 12 | 5 | 31% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .191/.266/.309 | .118 | .292 | 13 | 14 | 36% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .170/.258/.270 | .101 | .271 | 11 | 16 | 38% | 10% | 43 | -1.1 |
|
✕Max Burt 2022 · AAA |
25 | 40 | 42→45 | 48→55 | 36 | .201/.246/.303 | .102 | .283 | 11 | 8 | 32% | 5% | 48 | -1.9 | .195/.249/.317 | .122 | .283 | 14 | 20 | 35% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .172/.233/.265 | .093 | .260 | 10 | 26 | 36% | 6% | 31 | -1.4 |
|
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA |
25 | 39 | 43→45 | 43→45 | 46 | .192/.280/.301 | .108 | .265 | 11 | 7 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.8 | .198/.277/.336 | .138 | .251 | 16 | 10 | 27% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .186/.266/.336 | .150 | .221 | 18 | 12 | 25% | 7% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA |
25 | 36 | 45→50 | 48→50 | 37 | .186/.248/.306 | .120 | .290 | 14 | 12 | 39% | 7% | 50 | -1.7 | .185/.245/.287 | .102 | .286 | 9 | 10 | 36% | 7% | 43 | -2.2 | .153/.212/.244 | .092 | .224 | 3 | 6 | 32% | 7% | 14 | -1.0 |
|
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA |
25 | 39→42 | 42→45 | 47→50 | 39 | .194/.249/.297 | .104 | .281 | 10 | 12 | 34% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .200/.254/.303 | .103 | .309 | 9 | 13 | 36% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .206/.258/.305 | .100 | .300 | 8 | 9 | 32% | 6% | 50 | -1.1 |
|
✕Nick Quintana 2023 · AA |
25 | 38→40 | 44→45 | 43→45 | 48 | .192/.276/.305 | .113 | .261 | 12 | 6 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.9 | .193/.276/.302 | .109 | .277 | 10 | 6 | 32% | 9% | 62 | -0.9 | .109/.220/.196 | .087 | .164 | 8 | 0 | 36% | 9% | 11 | -1.0 |
|
✕Shea Vucinich 2014 · AA |
25 | 42→45 | 40 | 45→50 | 44 | .201/.277/.291 | .090 | .292 | 7 | 10 | 31% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .196/.271/.288 | .092 | .285 | 6 | 12 | 31% | 8% | 55 | -1.4 | .170/.249/.263 | .093 | .246 | 5 | 14 | 31% | 8% | 37 | -1.0 |
|
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA |
25 | 39→33 | 44→45 | 48→45 | 42 | .196/.263/.315 | .118 | .271 | 12 | 9 | 31% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .204/.262/.318 | .114 | .295 | 12 | 7 | 33% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .195/.242/.316 | .121 | .282 | 13 | 0 | 35% | 5% | 50 | -0.5 |