Josh Rivera

SS Buffalo Bisons
Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AATOR368.169/.262/.2404911—.140/.210/.193
202524AAA/AATOR440.219/.321/.3227244—.180/.257/.261
202625AAATOR365.212/.282/.37611338—.171/.224/.283
2027PROJ10% MLB26MLBTOR16.179/.243/.2740045-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB27MLBTOR70.181/.246/.2781147-0.2
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Chase%72
Max EV69
Speed49
BB%33
Whiff%32
Z-Con%29
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%
CompsMatt O'Neill (age 26) · Cooper Johnson (age 26) · Joe Cronin (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†45
AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .243 / .274
PA16
HR0
K%38
BB%6
BABIP280
ISO67
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -10.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.40-0.4WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.4-0.22728
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT35
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202322 A+South Bend Cubs — 10392 23802 9261 11 250324402726 152323 259 322 45 — — — — — —
202423 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 368325 55724 401051 92 169262240502 71234 2911 237 11 — — — — — —
202524 AAABuffalo Bisons — 394336 761516 531241 11 226333330664 104337 3113 304 52 — — — — — —
202524 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 4643 7101 3240 10 163217256473 93333 527 217 -20 — — — — — —
202625 AAABuffalo Bisons — 365330 7019111 321210 31 212282376658 164295 339 292 38 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202322 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 10395 17501 6341 11 179235263498 84272 336 235 45 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 368336 47523 291291 92 140210193404 54212 358 185 11 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 394351 661115 381511 11 188269268537 80306 3810 245 52 — — — — — —
202524 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 4644 5101 2300 10 114152205357 91306 654 139 -20 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 365339 581517 231450 31 171224283507 112268 406 225 38 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 10395 17501 6341 11 179235263498 84262 336 235 45 — — — — — —
202322 A+ RAWSouth Bend Cubs — 10392 23802 9261 11 250324402726 152323 259 322 45 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 368336 47523 291291 92 140210193404 54214 358 185 11 — — — — — —
202423 AA RAWNew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 368325 55724 401051 92 169262240502 71234 2911 237 11 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 440395 721216 401811 21 182259263522 81314 419 234 44 — — — — — —
202524 AAA RAW2 teams — 440379 831617 561481 21 219321322643 103336 3413 295 44 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 365339 581517 231450 31 171224283507 112270 406 225 38 — — — — — —
202625 AAA RAWBuffalo Bisons — 365330 7019111 321210 31 212282376658 164295 339 292 38 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 10395 17501 6341 11 179235263498 84272 336 235 45 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 368335 47523 291291 92 140210194404 54212 358 185 11 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 440396 721216 401811 21 182259263522 81306 419 234 44 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 365339 581517 231450 31 171224283507 112268 406 225 38 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 368335 47523 291291 92 140210194404 54212 358 185 11 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 440396 721216 401811 21 182259263522 81306 419 234 44 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 365339 581517 231450 31 171224283507 112268 406 225 38 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLETOR 10% 380347 621316 291441 41 178243273516 95279 388 235 45 -25 +0 +0 +4 +8 -0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXTOR 10% 1615 3100 160 00 179243274517 95280 386 236 45 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLETOR 31% 225206 38814 17840 21 180246277523 97279 378 238 47 -14 +0 +0 +2 +5 -0.7
202827 MLB CTXTOR 31% 7065 11201 5260 10 181246278524 97280 377 239 47 -4 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 7065 11201 5260 10 169229246475 77263 377 239 36 -4 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650604 1021909 462410 90 169228245473 76263 377 239 36 -41 +2 +0 +7 +14 -1.8
Career— MLE — 16561513 25650523 1276323 186 169235254489 85269 388 222 36 -24 +0 +0 +4 +8 -1.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650594 1012029 502481 72 170236256492 86270 388 222 36 -41 +0 +0 +7 +14 -2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 365 PAwOBA .286 → .225 (−60)K% 33.2% → 39.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.15%÷1.000×1.200——39.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.77%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0186.16%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP18.66%÷1.000×0.930×1.008×1.01817.82%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷1.000×0.830×1.008×1.0187.75%
Triples /BIP0.48%÷1.000×0.970×1.008×1.0180.48%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0183.75%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .286 → .225; ISO .164 → .119; BABIP .295 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 394 PAwOBA .299 → .245 (−54)K% 31.5% → 38.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.47%÷0.988×1.200——38.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.45%÷0.984×0.690—×1.0339.74%
HBP% /PA0.25%—×0.940—×1.0330.25%
Singles /BIP25.47%÷1.007×0.930×0.996×1.03324.20%
Doubles /BIP7.08%÷1.098×0.830×0.996×1.0335.51%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷0.986×0.970×0.996×1.0330.48%
Home runs /BIP2.83%÷0.847×0.700—×1.0332.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .299 → .245; ISO .104 → .083; BABIP .337 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 46 PAwOBA .211 → .139 (−72)K% 52.2% → 66.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA52.17%÷0.964×1.220——66.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.52%÷0.983×0.700—×0.9984.63%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP26.32%÷1.029×0.970—×0.99824.75%
Doubles /BIP5.26%÷1.030×0.860—×0.9984.38%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.997×0.950—×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷0.885×0.780—×0.9984.63%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .211 → .139; ISO .093 → .057; BABIP .333 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 368 PAwOBA .233 → .185 (−48)K% 28.5% → 35.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.53%÷0.995×1.220——35.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.87%÷0.990×0.700—×1.0127.78%
HBP% /PA0.27%—×0.850—×1.0120.23%
Singles /BIP19.09%÷1.015×0.970×0.966×1.01217.85%
Doubles /BIP3.18%÷1.051×0.860×0.966×1.0122.55%
Triples /BIP0.91%÷1.150×0.950×0.966×1.0120.73%
Home runs /BIP1.82%÷1.145×0.780—×1.0121.25%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .233 → .185; ISO .071 → .050; BABIP .234 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 103 PAwOBA .317 → .235 (−82)K% 25.2% → 33.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.24%÷0.966×1.270——33.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.74%÷1.060×0.710—×0.9985.84%
HBP% /PA0.97%—×0.790—×0.9980.77%
Singles /BIP19.70%÷0.988×0.920×1.009×0.99818.46%
Doubles /BIP12.12%÷1.140×0.810×1.009×0.9988.67%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.850×1.009×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP3.03%÷1.197×0.800—×0.9982.02%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .317 → .235; ISO .152 → .099; BABIP .323 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).