Josh Rivera — OGILVIE

Josh RiveraSS Buffalo Bisons

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION356 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†41

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP273

ISO82

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	103	92	23	8	0	2	9	26	1	1	1	250	324	402	726	152	323	25	9	322	104	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	325	55	7	2	4	40	105	1	9	2	169	262	240	502	71	234	29	11	237	47	-23	+1	—	—	+8	-1.5
2025	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	394	336	76	15	1	6	53	124	1	1	1	226	333	330	664	104	337	31	13	304	92	-4	-0	—	—	+9	0.5
2025	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	46	43	7	1	0	1	3	24	0	1	0	163	217	256	473	93	333	52	7	217	33	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	103	95	17	5	0	1	6	36	1	1	1	179	235	263	498	84	273	35	6	231	42	-7	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2024	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	337	45	5	1	3	28	129	1	9	2	134	202	181	383	47	204	35	8	180	8	-40	+1	—	—	+8	-3.2
2025	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	394	352	65	11	1	5	37	151	1	1	1	185	264	264	528	80	296	38	9	238	47	-25	-0	—	—	+9	-1.7
2025	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	46	44	5	1	0	1	2	30	0	1	0	114	152	205	357	91	299	65	4	137	-21	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	103	95	17	5	0	1	6	36	1	1	1	179	235	263	498	84	271	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	103	92	23	8	0	2	9	26	1	1	1	250	324	402	726	152	323	25	9	322	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	337	45	5	1	3	28	129	1	9	2	134	202	181	383	47	203	35	8	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	325	55	7	2	4	40	105	1	9	2	169	262	240	502	71	234	29	11	237	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	440	396	69	12	1	5	39	181	1	2	1	174	250	247	497	73	302	41	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	440	379	83	16	1	7	56	148	1	2	1	219	321	322	643	103	336	34	13	295	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	103	95	17	5	0	1	6	36	1	1	1	179	235	263	498	84	273	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	336	45	5	1	3	28	129	1	9	2	134	202	182	384	48	204	35	8	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	440	397	69	12	1	5	39	181	1	2	1	174	250	247	497	73	296	41	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	103	95	17	5	0	1	6	36	1	1	1	179	235	263	498	84	273	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	336	45	5	1	3	28	129	1	9	2	134	202	182	384	48	204	35	8	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	440	397	69	12	1	5	39	181	1	2	1	174	250	247	497	73	296	41	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	TOR	—	356	332	58	15	1	7	21	139	0	3	1	175	224	289	513	114	271	39	6	222	36	-27	+0	+0	+4	+8	-1.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA RAW	TOR	—	356	322	69	19	1	10	31	116	0	3	1	214	283	373	656	158	298	33	9	291	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AAA MLE	TOR	10%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		272	33	11	229	41	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	25	MLB CTX	TOR	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						273	0	0	228	41	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	MLB A+C	TOR	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	228	37	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	25	AAA MLE	TOR	—	365	340	59	15	1	7	22	142	0	3	1	174	224	285	509	112	269	39	6	222	37	-28	+0	+0	+4	+8	-1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	35%	365	335	61	13	1	7	26	134	1	3	1	182	243	290	533	107	273	37	7	239	48	-23	+0	+0	+4	+8	-1.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	388	355	65	14	1	7	29	138	1	3	1	183	247	287	534	104	274	36	7	245	52	-22	+0	+0	+4	+8	-1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	49%	400	366	69	15	1	8	30	140	1	3	1	189	252	301	552	112	275	35	8	248	54	-22	+0	-1	+4	+9	-1.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	50%	400	365	68	14	1	8	31	140	1	3	1	186	252	296	548	110	275	35	8	248	54	-22	+0	-1	+4	+9	-1.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	TOR	35%	127	117	21	5	0	2	9	47	0	1	0	179	238	274	512	94	274	37	7	238	48	-8	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	171	156	29	6	1	3	13	61	0	1	0	186	249	295	543	109	276	36	8	244	52	-10	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	49%	196	178	34	7	1	4	15	69	1	2	1	191	258	309	567	118	276	35	8	247	54	-11	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	50%	200	182	35	7	1	4	15	70	1	2	0	192	258	308	565	115	276	35	8	247	54	-11	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	695	634	119	25	3	13	52	247	2	6	1	188	251	298	550	110	280	36	7	244	43	-39	+1	-1	+7	+15	-1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	111	23	3	12	49	231	2	6	1	187	252	297	549	110	280	36	8	244	43	-37	+1	-1	+7	+14	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2473	2257	395	78	6	39	190	901	7	24	8	175	241	267	508	92	268	36	8	232	43	-89	+1	-2	+17	+34	-4.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	104	21	2	10	50	237	2	6	2	175	242	268	510	93	269	36	8	232	43	-37	+0	-1	+7	+14	-1.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.1	725	13	6	185	247	293	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.7
/162	664	12	6	+7.1	+5.5	-1.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Rivera (OGILVIE)	25	35	40	45	60	172/231/268	96	272	5	3	38%	7%	41	-1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cooper Johnson 2023 · AA	25	36	38→45	45→40	43	170/258/250	80	292	5	5	40%	9%	48	-2.5	184/267/299	115	295	12	6	38%	9%	62	-1.4	170/259/294	123	253	14	4	36%	10%	55	-0.9
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	175/237/270	95	265	8	7	36%	7%	43	-2.8	201/267/311	110	285	10	8	31%	7%	64	-1.3	188/261/294	106	261	9	5	30%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	38	40→45	45→50	44	182/273/271	90	286	8	7	36%	9%	59	-1.7	195/278/297	102	296	9	11	34%	8%	65	-1.2	169/259/271	102	251	9	13	34%	9%	50	-1.2
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	37→40	45→40	40	178/255/248	70	259	5	5	32%	6%	46	-2.6	192/272/277	85	272	7	6	30%	7%	59	-1.7	144/248/206	63	200	4	0	27%	8%	33	-0.8
✕Eric Yang 2023 · AAA	25	39	39→40	47→40	44	186/268/270	84	277	6	6	33%	8%	56	-1.9	197/273/272	75	298	5	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	178/263/231	54	280	4	1	35%	9%	43	-0.6
✕Cadyn Grenier 2022 · AAA	25	41→38	40	48→50	40	193/269/287	94	312	8	10	38%	8%	60	-1.6	198/279/295	97	292	8	13	32%	9%	65	-1.2	174/270/262	88	250	6	16	30%	10%	53	-1.4
✕Dennis Ortega 2022 · AAA	25	41	38→45	47→45	39	200/250/277	77	288	6	5	32%	6%	49	-2.4	214/269/308	94	322	8	10	34%	6%	63	-1.3	201/253/274	73	312	5	10	35%	6%	46	-0.8
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	37	43→45	47→50	44	189/257/298	109	258	11	5	31%	8%	57	-1.8	192/267/306	114	292	12	14	36%	9%	63	-1.3	172/260/273	101	275	11	16	38%	10%	51	-1.1
✕Jean Luc Blaquiere 2011 · AAA	25	39	40	40→45	36	192/241/277	85	286	8	4	35%	5%	46	-2.6	206/277/292	86	298	7	5	31%	8%	63	-1.3	206/313/286	80	269	6	0	23%	11%	73	-0.2
✕Allan de San Miguel 2012 · AAA	24	38	40→45	46→40	44	180/269/269	89	297	8	4	39%	10%	56	-1.9	202/277/317	115	294	11	7	33%	8%	70	-0.9	183/259/290	107	251	11	5	30%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Trevor Schwecke 2023 · AAA	25	39	43→45	41→50	39	194/254/302	108	288	10	6	35%	6%	57	-1.8	221/278/332	111	314	9	14	31%	6%	72	-0.7	228/287/337	109	320	8	17	29%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Rylan Sandoval 2013 · AA	25	39	42→40	45	36	194/249/295	101	286	9	5	34%	5%	53	-2.1	216/266/303	87	312	6	8	31%	5%	61	-1.5	219/269/292	73	315	5	8	30%	5%	56	-0.8
✕Mikey White 2019 · AA	25	41→42	43→45	46→40	38	200/255/305	104	297	10	4	35%	6%	57	-1.8	204/265/308	104	296	10	5	33%	6%	62	-1.4	202/261/304	102	277	11	2	30%	6%	58	-1.3
✕Austin Rei 2019 · AA	25	39	40	40	41	190/266/285	95	277	7	4	32%	7%	58	-1.7	196/266/290	94	304	8	7	35%	7%	59	-1.6	130/211/192	62	213	4	0	38%	8%	14	-0.9
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	39→41	42→45	47→50	39	194/249/297	103	281	10	12	34%	6%	54	-2.0	198/251/298	100	305	9	13	36%	6%	55	-2.0	203/255/298	95	293	7	9	31%	6%	54	-1.3
✕Jordan Betts 2017 · AA	25	35→28	40→45	46→40	35	176/222/267	91	273	7	4	37%	5%	36	-3.3	194/242/306	112	292	12	4	36%	6%	53	-2.1	187/235/301	114	276	14	3	37%	5%	48	-1.6
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	42→45	45→50	39	185/255/296	111	276	9	10	35%	7%	57	-1.8	191/270/296	105	294	8	13	35%	8%	62	-1.4	163/254/261	99	255	6	16	35%	9%	49	-1.1
✕Max Burt 2022 · AAA	25	41	42→45	49→55	37	205/251/307	102	287	10	9	32%	5%	57	-1.8	192/247/307	115	274	13	21	34%	6%	55	-1.9	171/232/261	89	254	9	26	35%	5%	37	-1.5
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/260/306	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	205/263/313	108	295	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/310	115	279	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Jesse Hodges 2019 · AA	25	40→44	41→40	42→40	37	198/246/294	96	287	8	4	33%	5%	51	-2.2	198/250/294	96	288	8	6	32%	5%	53	-2.1	156/211/234	79	224	6	0	32%	3%	25	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps