Hayden Senger
C Syracuse Mets| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/AANYM | 184 | .232/.304/.366 | 3 | 0 | 52 | — | .198/.260/.300 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 214 | .222/.273/.356 | 6 | 2 | 39 | — | .178/.219/.254 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLBNYM | 78 | .181/.224/.194 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.5 | |
| 2026 | 29 | AAANYM | 262 | .244/.306/.436 | 12 | 3 | 54 | — | .198/.248/.331 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLBNYM | 17 | .133/.133/.333 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.4 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 30 | MLBNYM | 70 | .196/.243/.307 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 31 | MLBNYM | 83 | .195/.241/.302 | 2 | 0 | 55 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | — | 41 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 488 | 600 | 1.088 | 200 | 500 | 20 | 10 | 479 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 353 | 304 | 70 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 64 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 328 | 345 | 673 | 115 | 275 | 18 | 7 | 306 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 205 | 181 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 338 | 387 | 725 | 133 | 368 | 30 | 8 | 327 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 47 | 43 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 362 | 605 | 966 | 302 | 440 | 34 | 6 | 416 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 40 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 375 | 226 | 601 | 32 | 250 | 18 | 20 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 23 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 261 | 304 | 565 | 43 | 375 | 30 | 0 | 253 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 297 | 265 | 63 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 99 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 238 | 315 | 362 | 678 | 125 | 356 | 33 | 7 | 306 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 309 | 261 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 95 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 188 | 309 | 295 | 604 | 107 | 270 | 31 | 12 | 283 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 166 | 147 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 325 | 401 | 727 | 150 | 321 | 23 | 7 | 321 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 18 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 111 | 59 | 170 | 91 | 33 | 6 | 89 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | — | 78 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 224 | 194 | 418 | 14 | 255 | 28 | 4 | 192 | 19 | -8 | +0 | +5 | +5 | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 182 | 165 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 270 | 339 | 609 | 121 | 263 | 24 | 5 | 268 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 32 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 290 | 448 | 739 | 207 | 261 | 19 | 6 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | — | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 133 | 333 | 467 | 200 | 100 | 24 | 0 | 176 | 6 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +0 | 0.4 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 262 | 234 | 57 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 73 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 306 | 436 | 742 | 192 | 300 | 28 | 7 | 323 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 95 | 87 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 209 | 218 | 427 | 46 | 230 | 27 | 3 | 189 | 14 | -10 | +0 | +5 | +10 | +2 | 0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 41 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 306 | 390 | 472 | 862 | 167 | 395 | 27 | 7 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 353 | 315 | 56 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 256 | 260 | 516 | 83 | 225 | 25 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 205 | 186 | 40 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 74 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 284 | 317 | 602 | 102 | 329 | 36 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 47 | 44 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 298 | 523 | 821 | 273 | 392 | 45 | 4 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 23 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 217 | 261 | 478 | 43 | 371 | 39 | 0 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 297 | 272 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 119 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 195 | 258 | 287 | 544 | 92 | 320 | 40 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 309 | 273 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 116 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 161 | 254 | 245 | 499 | 84 | 247 | 38 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 166 | 150 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 276 | 327 | 603 | 113 | 292 | 29 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 18 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 111 | 59 | 170 | 87 | 39 | 6 | 70 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | New York Mets | — | 78 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 224 | 194 | 418 | 14 | 255 | 28 | 4 | 197 | 19 | -8 | +0 | +5 | +5 | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 182 | 169 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 54 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 178 | 219 | 254 | 474 | 77 | 233 | 30 | 4 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | New York Mets | — | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 133 | 333 | 467 | 200 | 100 | 24 | 0 | 177 | 6 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +0 | 0.4 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 262 | 242 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 88 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 248 | 331 | 579 | 132 | 262 | 34 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 41 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 306 | 390 | 472 | 862 | 167 | 417 | 27 | 7 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK RAW | Kingsport Mets | — | 41 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 488 | 600 | 1.088 | 200 | 500 | 20 | 10 | 479 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 353 | 315 | 56 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 256 | 260 | 516 | 83 | 233 | 25 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 353 | 304 | 70 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 64 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 328 | 345 | 673 | 115 | 275 | 18 | 7 | 306 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 292 | 267 | 57 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 110 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 278 | 337 | 615 | 124 | 344 | 38 | 5 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 292 | 255 | 65 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 85 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 347 | 404 | 751 | 149 | 361 | 29 | 9 | 338 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 295 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 128 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 258 | 288 | 546 | 88 | 333 | 40 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 320 | 288 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 106 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 240 | 311 | 358 | 669 | 118 | 358 | 33 | 7 | 302 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 309 | 273 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 116 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 161 | 254 | 245 | 499 | 84 | 258 | 38 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 309 | 261 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 95 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 188 | 309 | 295 | 604 | 107 | 270 | 31 | 12 | 283 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 167 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 260 | 299 | 559 | 102 | 279 | 30 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 184 | 164 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 304 | 366 | 670 | 134 | 299 | 24 | 7 | 298 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 292 | 271 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 85 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 181 | 221 | 236 | 457 | 55 | 246 | 29 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 292 | 266 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 72 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 260 | 312 | 572 | 102 | 260 | 25 | 5 | 253 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 257 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 195 | 242 | 331 | 572 | 136 | 261 | 33 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 279 | 249 | 59 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 77 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 237 | 297 | 430 | 726 | 193 | 287 | 28 | 7 | 314 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 41 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 306 | 390 | 472 | 862 | 167 | 395 | 27 | 7 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 353 | 317 | 56 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 256 | 259 | 514 | 82 | 225 | 25 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 292 | 266 | 57 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 110 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 278 | 338 | 617 | 124 | 341 | 38 | 5 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 294 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 128 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 201 | 258 | 289 | 547 | 88 | 324 | 40 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 309 | 272 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 116 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 162 | 254 | 246 | 500 | 85 | 247 | 38 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 168 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 260 | 298 | 557 | 101 | 272 | 30 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 292 | 276 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 85 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 178 | 221 | 232 | 453 | 54 | 240 | 29 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 261 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 242 | 326 | 567 | 134 | 252 | 33 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 168 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 260 | 298 | 557 | 101 | 272 | 30 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 292 | 276 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 85 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 178 | 221 | 232 | 453 | 54 | 240 | 29 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 261 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 242 | 326 | 567 | 134 | 252 | 33 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYM | 45% | 304 | 283 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 248 | 315 | 562 | 113 | 265 | 30 | 5 | 252 | 56 | -16 | +0 | +3 | +5 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYM | 45% | 70 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 243 | 307 | 549 | 110 | 257 | 30 | 4 | 246 | 56 | -4 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | NYM | 48% | 174 | 162 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 247 | 310 | 556 | 109 | 264 | 29 | 5 | 249 | 55 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | NYM | 48% | 83 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 241 | 302 | 543 | 107 | 255 | 29 | 5 | 244 | 55 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 178 | 165 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 224 | 255 | 479 | 73 | 239 | 28 | 4 | 215 | 49 | -14 | +0 | +5 | +12 | +4 | 0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 110 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 183 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 225 | 255 | 481 | 73 | 240 | 28 | 4 | 215 | 49 | -52 | +0 | +18 | +43 | +14 | 2.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2399 | 2188 | 422 | 84 | 10 | 38 | 119 | 783 | 63 | 14 | 5 | 193 | 255 | 293 | 547 | 100 | 277 | 33 | 5 | 240 | 49 | -27 | +1 | +6 | +16 | +9 | 0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 115 | 23 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 212 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 194 | 255 | 293 | 549 | 99 | 279 | 33 | 5 | 240 | 49 | -42 | +1 | +9 | +25 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 262 PAwOBA .315 → .248 (−67)K% 27.9% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×0.982 | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×0.982 | 3.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×0.982 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 5.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .315 → .248; ISO .192 → .136; BABIP .300 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 182 PAwOBA .263 → .210 (−54)K% 24.2% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.18% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.49% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.31% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | ×0.967 | ×0.992 | 20.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.48% | ÷1.022 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×0.992 | 1.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.959 | ×0.970 | ×0.967 | ×0.992 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.13% | ÷1.167 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.46% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .263 → .210; ISO .121 → .079; BABIP .263 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 166 PAwOBA .314 → .264 (−50)K% 23.5% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.49% | ÷0.968 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.23% | ÷0.933 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.37% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 19.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.19% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 8.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.84% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 94, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .314 → .264; ISO .150 → .117; BABIP .321 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 18 PAwOBA .087 → .070 (−17)K% 33.3% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 3.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.978 | 8.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .087 → .070; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .091 → .087. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 309 PAwOBA .279 → .225 (−53)K% 30.7% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.74% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.65% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.24% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.28% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 18.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.63% | ÷1.032 | ×0.860 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 5.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.01% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.51% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .279 → .225; ISO .107 → .086; BABIP .270 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 297 PAwOBA .300 → .244 (−56)K% 33.3% → 40.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.07% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.30% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 23.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.43% | ÷0.988 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.01% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.62% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .300 → .244; ISO .125 → .099; BABIP .356 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 23 PAwOBA .245 → .215 (−30)K% 30.4% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 31.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .245 → .215; ISO .043 → .035; BABIP .375 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 205 PAwOBA .320 → .262 (−59)K% 30.2% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.24% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.80% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.41% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.37% | ÷1.045 | ×0.940 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 22.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.92% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 9.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.52% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 112, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .320 → .262; ISO .133 → .105; BABIP .368 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .