Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 4 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 26.3% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 4.21 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 4 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 26.3% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 4.46 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 12 | 86 | 363 | 87 | 51 | 9 | 40% | 2.9 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.47 | 5.23 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 12 | 86 | 363 | 87 | 51 | 9 | 40% | 2.9 | 24.0% | 14.0% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.47 | 4.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 27 | 0 | 30 | 161 | 38 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 19.8% | -0.7% | 6.0% | 9.00 | 7.27 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 52 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 17.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.65 | 5.65 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 17.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.65 | 5.65 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 100 | 457 | 97 | 81 | 17 | — | — | 21.2% | 17.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.66 | 6.14 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.9% | 17.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.65 | 5.27 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 60 | 50 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.50 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 60 | 47 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 16.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.43 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 27 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.50 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 38 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 16.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.43 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 66 | 53 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 16.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.46 | 5.09 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 140 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 16.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.46 | 5.09 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 14 | 123 | 562 | 108 | 105 | 19 | 23% | 2.0 | 19.3% | 18.7% | 0.6% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 5.74 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 99 | 23 | 200 | 914 | 176 | 171 | 32 | 23% | 2.0 | 19.3% | 18.7% | 0.6% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 5.74 | -0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ramsey David (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.65 | 19.9% | 17.6% | 2.9% | — | 5.47 | 20.6% | 4.0% | 139 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 87 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 21.2% | 18.6% | 1.9% | .329 | 4.35 | 25.0% | 5.4% | 107 | -0.34 | 4.20 | 311 | 85 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 84 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 82 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 82 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 82 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.2% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 82 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 82 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 82 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | .229 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.79 | 3.89 | 272 | 80 |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 80 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 80 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 79 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 79 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.50 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 181 | 78 |
| Josh Harlow R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 78 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 78 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.62 | 21.4% | 19.3% | 1.6% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 168 | 78 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 19.0% | 15.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.33 | 22.0% | 5.9% | 87 | -0.13 | 4.13 | 217 | 78 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.60 | 19.9% | 17.5% | 3.6% | .214 | 4.77 | 19.0% | 3.2% | 53 | -0.83 | 3.73 | 203 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 20.3% | 16.9% | 1.15 | 5.53 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |