Nate Baez

C Portland Sea Dogs
Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 191 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2107ETA2030MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423A+MIN317.239/.333/.42012046—.171/.248/.273
202524AA/A+MIN396.278/.376/.4238379—.232/.309/.346
202625AAA/AABOS435.223/.305/.3539450—.190/.256/.291
2027PROJMLE26MLBBOS3.219/.281/.33300690.0
2028PROJ27% MLB27MLBBOS60.220/.282/.33510690.0
2029PROJ40% MLB28MLBBOS101.220/.282/.33421690.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Whiff%80
Z-Con%72
K%68
Max EV45
Chase%24
BB%20
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%
CompsSebastian Valle (age 26) · Neil Wilson (age 26) · Tomás Nido (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†69
AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .281 / .333
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%6
BABIP281
ISO120
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE30
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202221 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 5852 15403 4151 01 288351538889 250343 267 382 91 — — — — — —
202322 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 12597 26502 25402 10 268427381809 113429 3220 374 72 — — — — — —
202423 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 317276 6610212 31898 00 239333420754 181305 2810 336 46 — — — — — —
202524 AAWichita Wind Surge — 212190 45845 13355 20 237303400703 163260 176 308 53 — — — — — —
202524 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 184148 49903 32303 10 331459453912 122397 1617 412 109 — — — — — —
202625 AAAWorcester Red Sox — 5650 8200 4111 00 160236200436 40200 207 206 3 — — — — — —
202625 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 379335 782109 308510 41 233315376691 143283 228 310 57 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202221 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 5853 12302 3211 01 226281396677 170315 365 302 91 — — — — — —
202322 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 125106 20301 16562 10 189306245552 57391 4513 274 72 — — — — — —
202423 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 317286 49617 211168 00 171248273520 101251 377 236 46 — — — — — —
202524 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 212194 37634 9455 20 191245314560 124218 214 247 53 — — — — — —
202524 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 184157 44703 23393 10 280383382765 102339 2112 329 109 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 5651 7200 3131 00 137200176376 39178 235 173 3 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 379344 681707 2110410 41 198264308572 110254 276 252 57 — — — — — —
202221 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 5853 12302 3211 01 226281396677 170323 365 302 91 — — — — — —
202221 A RAWFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 5852 15403 4151 01 288351538889 250343 267 382 91 — — — — — —
202322 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 125106 20301 16562 10 189306245552 57380 4513 274 72 — — — — — —
202322 A RAWFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 12597 26502 25402 10 268427381809 113429 3220 374 72 — — — — — —
202423 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 317286 49617 211168 00 171248273520 101255 377 236 46 — — — — — —
202423 A+ RAWCedar Rapids Kernels — 317276 6610212 31898 00 239333420754 181305 2810 336 46 — — — — — —
202524 AA MLE2 teams — 396351 811337 32848 30 231309345654 114279 218 285 79 — — — — — —
202524 AA RAW2 teams — 396338 941748 45658 30 278376423799 145319 1611 356 79 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLE2 teams — 435395 761907 2411711 41 192258294552 101251 276 242 50 — — — — — —
202625 AA RAW2 teams — 435385 862309 349611 41 223305353658 130271 228 296 50 — — — — — —
202221 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 5854 12302 3211 01 222281389670 167315 365 302 91 — — — — — —
202322 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 125106 20301 16562 10 189306245552 57391 4513 274 72 — — — — — —
202423 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 317285 49617 211168 00 172248274521 102251 377 236 46 — — — — — —
202524 AA MLE2 teams — 396353 811337 32848 30 229309343652 113274 218 285 79 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLE2 teams — 435397 761907 2411711 41 191258292550 101244 276 242 50 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 317285 49617 211168 00 172248274521 102251 377 236 46 — — — — — —
202524 AA MLE2 teams — 396353 811337 32848 30 229309343652 113274 218 285 79 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLE2 teams — 435397 761907 2411711 41 191258292550 101244 276 242 50 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLEBOS 2% 380348 751627 22967 31 212274323597 110271 256 270 69 -14 +0 +0 +7 +8 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXBOS 2% 33 0000 010 00 219281333614 114281 330 276 69 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLEBOS 27% 225205 44914 14574 20 213276324600 112272 256 271 69 -8 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.1
202928 MLB MLEBOS 40% 253230 481014 16645 10 213276324600 111272 256 271 69 -9 +0 -1 +5 +5 0.0
203029 MLB MLEBOS 45% 263240 521115 16675 10 212275322597 110271 256 270 69 -10 +0 -1 +5 +6 -0.1
202827 MLB CTXBOS 27% 6055 12301 4151 00 220282335617 115282 257 278 69 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202928 MLB CTXBOS 40% 10192 20502 6262 10 220282334616 115282 266 278 69 -4 +0 -0 +2 +2 0.0
203029 MLB CTXBOS 45% 118108 23502 7302 00 219282332614 113282 256 277 69 -4 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 279255 551305 17715 10 216278325603 110276 256 277 64 -10 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650594 12830012 4016512 20 215279327606 111275 256 277 64 -24 +0 -2 +12 +14 0.0
Career— MLE — 22272008 41280840 15162147 132 205277313589 108273 287 264 64 -33 +1 -2 +16 +19 0.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650586 12023212 4418114 41 205276312589 108271 287 264 64 -24 +1 -2 +12 +14 0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 379 PAwOBA .304 → .252 (−52)K% 22.4% → 27.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.43%÷1.000×1.220——27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.92%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9985.53%
HBP% /PA2.64%—×0.850—×0.9982.24%
Singles /BIP19.20%÷1.000×0.970×0.969×0.99818.02%
Doubles /BIP8.40%÷1.000×0.860×0.969×0.9986.99%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×0.969×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP3.60%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9982.80%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .304 → .252; ISO .143 → .113; BABIP .283 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 56 PAwOBA .205 → .173 (−32)K% 19.6% → 23.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.64%÷1.000×1.200——23.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.14%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0335.09%
HBP% /PA1.79%—×0.940—×1.0331.73%
Singles /BIP15.38%÷1.000×0.930×0.950×1.03314.04%
Doubles /BIP5.13%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×1.0334.18%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0330.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .205 → .173; ISO .040 → .033; BABIP .200 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 212 PAwOBA .305 → .247 (−58)K% 16.5% → 21.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.51%÷0.941×1.220——21.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.13%÷0.992×0.700—×1.0124.38%
HBP% /PA2.36%—×0.870—×1.0122.08%
Singles /BIP18.06%÷1.025×0.920×0.955×1.01215.68%
Doubles /BIP5.16%÷1.031×0.840×0.955×1.0124.06%
Triples /BIP2.58%÷1.150×0.940×0.955×1.0122.04%
Home runs /BIP3.23%÷0.986×0.800—×1.0122.65%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .305 → .247; ISO .163 → .129; BABIP .260 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 184 PAwOBA .404 → .329 (−76)K% 16.3% → 21.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.30%÷0.979×1.270——21.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.39%÷0.989×0.710—×0.98812.34%
HBP% /PA1.63%—×0.790—×0.9881.27%
Singles /BIP31.36%÷0.990×0.920×0.974×0.98828.04%
Doubles /BIP7.63%÷1.088×0.810×0.974×0.9885.46%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.943×0.850×0.974×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP2.54%÷0.962×0.800—×0.9882.09%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .404 → .329; ISO .122 → .095; BABIP .397 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 317 PAwOBA .329 → .236 (−93)K% 28.1% → 36.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.08%÷0.972×1.270——36.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.78%÷1.043×0.710—×0.9986.64%
HBP% /PA2.52%—×0.790—×0.9981.99%
Singles /BIP22.46%÷0.984×0.920×0.950×0.99819.91%
Doubles /BIP5.35%÷1.119×0.810×0.950×0.9983.67%
Triples /BIP1.07%÷1.146×0.850×0.950×0.9980.75%
Home runs /BIP6.42%÷1.191×0.800—×0.9984.30%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 124, 3B 129, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .329 → .236; ISO .181 → .114; BABIP .305 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 125 PAwOBA .368 → .274 (−94)K% 32.0% → 44.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.00%÷0.969×1.360——44.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.00%÷1.050×0.690——13.14%
HBP% /PA1.60%—×0.780——1.25%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷0.938×0.920×0.979—31.99%
Doubles /BIP8.77%÷1.053×0.830×0.979—6.77%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910×0.979—0.00%
Home runs /BIP3.51%÷0.976×0.800——2.88%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 88, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .368 → .274; ISO .113 → .081; BABIP .429 → .391. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 58 PAwOBA .377 → .302 (−75)K% 25.9% → 35.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.86%÷0.991×1.360——35.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.90%÷1.026×0.690—×1.0154.71%
HBP% /PA1.72%—×0.780—×1.0151.36%
Singles /BIP21.62%÷0.988×0.920—×1.01520.43%
Doubles /BIP10.81%÷0.916×0.830—×1.0159.95%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910—×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP8.11%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0156.58%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .377 → .302; ISO .250 → .194; BABIP .343 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).