Nate Baez — OGILVIE

Nate BaezC Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 191 lbs AA H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION302 act + 201 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .256 / .313

PA201

HR5

K%29

BB%6

BABIP241

ISO126

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	58	53	13	4	0	2	3	22	1	0	1	245	298	434	732	189	367	38	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	58	52	15	4	0	3	4	15	1	0	1	288	351	538	889	250	343	26	7	382	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	125	105	20	3	0	1	17	61	2	1	0	190	315	248	562	57	432	49	14	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	125	97	26	5	0	2	25	40	2	1	0	268	427	381	809	113	429	32	20	374	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	317	287	46	6	1	6	20	127	8	0	0	160	235	251	486	91	256	40	6	218	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	317	276	66	10	2	12	31	89	8	0	0	239	333	420	754	181	305	28	10	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	2 teams	—	396	351	78	12	3	7	32	94	8	3	0	222	302	333	635	111	278	24	8	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	2 teams	—	396	338	94	17	4	8	45	65	8	3	0	278	376	423	799	145	319	16	11	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	BOS	—	302	276	52	15	0	8	15	89	9	4	1	188	253	330	583	141	243	29	5	254	53	-16	+0	+0	+5	+9	-0.2
YTD	25	AA	BOS	—	302	269	62	19	0	9	22	69	9	4	1	230	310	401	711	171	275	23	7	317	101	+0	+0	+0	+5	+9	1.5
ROS	25	AA	BOS	2%	201	182	34	8	0	5	12	58	5	2	0	186	256	313	568	126	241	29	6	254	53	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.1
ROS	25	MLB	BOS	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						247	25	0	242	43	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AA	BOS	—	306	280	52	15	0	8	15	90	9	4	1	186	250	325	575	139	239	29	5	254	52	-16	+0	+0	+5	+9	-0.2
TOT	25	AA	BOS	—	503	458	86	23	0	13	27	147	14	6	1	188	254	323	577	135	242	29	5	254	53	-27	+1	+0	+9	+14	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	BOS	31%	504	456	87	19	1	12	33	143	10	4	1	191	261	316	576	125	245	28	7	260	57	-24	+0	+0	+9	+14	-0.1
2028	27	MLB	BOS	42%	517	467	91	20	1	13	35	145	10	4	1	195	266	325	591	131	248	28	7	265	61	-23	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.2
2029	28	MLB	BOS	48%	520	469	92	20	1	13	36	145	10	4	1	196	268	326	594	130	250	28	7	267	63	-22	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.2
2030	29	MLB	BOS	49%	520	468	91	20	1	12	37	145	10	4	1	194	268	318	586	124	250	28	7	267	62	-22	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.1
2027	26	MLB	BOS	31%	156	142	27	6	0	4	10	44	3	1	0	190	258	317	575	127	251	28	6	250	49	-9	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.2
2028	27	MLB	BOS	42%	217	196	39	9	1	5	15	61	4	2	0	199	270	332	601	133	255	28	7	255	53	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.1
2029	28	MLB	BOS	48%	249	225	45	10	1	6	17	69	5	2	0	200	271	333	605	133	256	28	7	258	55	-13	+0	-0	+4	+7	-0.1
2030	29	MLB	BOS	49%	257	232	46	10	1	6	18	72	5	2	0	198	271	328	598	129	257	28	7	257	55	-13	+0	-1	+5	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	883	799	157	35	3	21	60	247	17	7	0	196	267	327	594	130	254	28	7	255	54	-46	+1	-1	+16	+25	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	115	26	2	15	44	182	13	5	0	196	267	323	590	128	254	28	7	255	54	-34	+1	-1	+12	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	3158	2838	552	112	8	71	225	940	64	22	5	194	269	315	584	120	260	30	7	263	59	-145	+2	-2	+56	+89	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	114	23	2	15	46	193	13	5	1	195	269	318	588	123	260	30	7	263	59	-30	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	58	52	15	4	0	3	4	15	1	0	1	288	351	538	889	250	343	26	7	382	150	+3	-0	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	125	97	26	5	0	2	25	40	2	1	0	268	427	381	809	113	429	32	20	374	144	+6	+0	—	—	+4	1.0
2024	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	317	276	66	10	2	12	31	89	8	0	0	239	333	420	754	181	305	28	10	336	115	+6	+0	—	—	+9	1.5
2025	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	212	190	45	8	4	5	13	35	5	2	0	237	303	400	703	163	260	17	6	308	94	-2	+0	—	—	+6	0.5
2025	24	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	184	148	49	9	0	3	32	30	3	1	0	331	459	453	912	122	397	16	17	412	173	+15	+0	—	—	+5	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	886	21	7	195	263	323	+16	+8	0.2	0.2
	/162	664	16	5	195	263	323	+11.9	+6.0	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nate Baez (OGILVIE)	25	45	45	45	30	188/254/323	135	242	13	6	29%	5%	53	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Julio E. Rodriguez 2022 · AA	25	41	43→50	48→30	40	207/256/310	103	267	12	6	27%	5%	54	-1.4	205/274/339	134	286	18	4	33%	8%	69	-0.4	185/255/317	132	254	19	1	34%	8%	54	-0.5
✕Grayson Greiner 2018 · AAA	25	41	43→45	47→30	40	204/253/314	110	278	10	2	30%	6%	53	-1.5	212/275/332	120	288	13	3	29%	8%	68	-0.5	204/275/302	97	298	10	0	33%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Alan Trejo 2021 · AA	25	38→42	41→50	42→45	36	194/232/287	94	263	10	6	30%	4%	37	-2.6	207/249/352	145	265	15	6	28%	5%	63	-0.9	211/267/341	130	267	14	7	26%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Joseph Odom 2017 · AA	25	42	42→45	44→30	40	211/255/318	107	275	10	3	27%	5%	55	-1.4	219/258/327	108	308	10	3	31%	5%	59	-1.1	199/254/318	119	330	12	2	41%	6%	52	-0.6
✕Joe Dunand 2021 · AA	25	42→48	42→50	45	38	209/263/315	105	286	10	4	30%	5%	59	-1.1	203/268/334	131	299	14	6	35%	6%	66	-0.6	199/270/344	145	289	17	5	35%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Joseph Muich 2008 · AA	25	41	43→40	49→30	38	207/245/310	103	272	12	5	28%	4%	49	-1.8	205/251/286	81	301	7	6	32%	5%	45	-2.1	179/227/201	22	283	0	0	34%	5%	10	-1.2
✕Osvaldo Abreu 2019 · AA	25	39→46	41→40	43→50	38	195/242/293	98	268	9	6	30%	5%	43	-2.2	197/252/290	93	307	8	8	36%	6%	47	-1.9	186/244/260	75	308	5	8	39%	6%	32	-1.2
✕Dusty Brown 2007 · AA	25	41	43→45	44→30	43	205/258/311	106	264	11	5	26%	6%	55	-1.4	224/282/344	120	300	12	3	28%	7%	74	-0.1	228/291/341	113	307	12	0	28%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Kevin Ahrens 2014 · AA	25	39→46	42→45	42→40	45	195/260/295	100	257	10	2	28%	8%	52	-1.6	220/276/338	118	275	11	5	23%	7%	70	-0.3	224/281/347	124	272	12	4	22%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Tyler Ladendorf 2013 · AAA	25	40→50	41→45	45→50	42	198/254/294	96	257	9	8	26%	6%	49	-1.8	218/278/321	103	278	9	6	24%	7%	66	-0.6	225/286/323	98	285	8	3	23%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Javi Herrera 2006 · AA	25	42	42→40	43→45	37	206/260/311	104	273	9	6	28%	4%	56	-1.3	213/283/307	94	268	8	6	23%	6%	66	-0.6	196/290/279	83	247	8	5	22%	9%	61	-0.3
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	38	43→45	42→45	46	189/279/295	106	260	11	6	30%	9%	62	-0.9	198/275/331	133	251	15	10	27%	7%	69	-0.4	185/264/327	142	224	17	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Omir Santos 2006 · AA	25	44→43	44→45	43→30	36	221/252/329	108	268	13	3	23%	2%	56	-1.3	223/260/307	84	283	8	4	23%	4%	54	-1.4	229/274/311	82	271	7	1	18%	4%	58	-0.5
✕Braeden Schlehuber 2013 · AA	25	41	44→45	43→40	38	207/256/325	118	253	12	4	24%	3%	59	-1.1	199/243/297	98	238	10	5	21%	4%	45	-2.1	186/224/254	68	222	4	2	18%	4%	24	-1.2
✕Adam Donachie 2009 · AA	25	39	43→45	42→30	45	198/264/301	103	265	12	3	29%	8%	55	-1.4	186/252/279	93	260	9	3	30%	8%	44	-2.1	165/235/251	86	229	8	0	30%	8%	29	-1.4
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2017 · AAA	25	41→38	43→45	46→40	39	203/259/316	113	279	11	4	30%	6%	57	-1.2	204/260/310	106	302	11	5	34%	5%	56	-1.3	200/258/297	97	302	12	3	36%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Gerson Montilla 2015 · AA	25	44→46	44→45	41→45	41	222/260/336	114	268	12	5	23%	5%	62	-0.9	217/263/335	118	265	14	6	23%	5%	63	-0.8	210/258/326	116	251	15	5	23%	5%	58	-1.0
✕Olivier Basabe 2022 · AA	25	39	43→40	45	42	197/254/301	103	257	11	7	28%	6%	50	-1.7	210/271/311	101	292	11	10	30%	7%	61	-1.0	199/266/281	82	279	10	10	31%	7%	47	-0.9
✕Drake Osborn 2023 · A	25	39	44→45	49→40	42	198/262/310	112	269	11	6	30%	7%	57	-1.2	190/247/298	108	260	12	4	31%	6%	47	-1.9	181/237/285	104	244	12	2	30%	6%	37	-1.2
✕Carlos Ramirez 2013 · AA	25	42	41→45	47→40	44	207/273/305	98	264	9	6	24%	6%	60	-1.0	210/273/339	129	261	13	7	24%	6%	69	-0.4	182/246/357	175	207	20	3	24%	5%	59	-0.3