Cy Nielson

P Altoona Curve

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	44	1	60	3.92	2.38	29.4%	10.9%	—	K 23.1% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.30
2025	24	AAPIT	38	2	55	5.40	3.48	25.8%	11.5%	—	K 20.9% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.37
2026	25	MIX2 levels	42	0	71	4.94	3.20	24.0%	10.0%	—	K 19.7% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.79
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	67	0	70	4.88	4.88	19.4%	12.8%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBPIT	25	0	26	4.85	4.87	19.8%	12.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBPIT	38	0	40	4.87	4.91	19.9%	12.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command36FB velo40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsMatt Purke (age 26) · Colton Johnson (age 26) · Juan Grullon (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%19.4%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD3035

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	1	9	42	8	8	1	14%	1.2	19.0%	19.0%	0.0%	2.4%	8.31	5.21	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	1	9	42	8	8	1	14%	1.2	19.0%	19.0%	0.0%	2.4%	8.31	5.52	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	39	0	47	213	53	19	1	0%	1.2	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	0.5%	4.44	3.05	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	39	0	47	213	53	19	1	0%	1.2	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	0.5%	4.44	2.33	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	60	265	78	29	2	2%	1.4	23.1%	12.3%	10.8%	1.1%	3.92	3.30	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	60	265	78	29	2	2%	1.4	23.1%	12.3%	10.8%	1.1%	3.92	3.30	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	60	265	78	29	2	2%	1.4	29.4%	10.9%	18.5%	0.8%	3.92	2.38	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	38	2	55	260	67	30	5	5%	1.4	20.9%	12.7%	8.2%	2.6%	5.40	4.37	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	38	2	55	260	67	30	5	5%	1.4	20.9%	12.7%	8.2%	2.6%	5.40	4.37	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	38	2	55	260	67	30	5	5%	1.4	25.8%	11.5%	14.2%	1.9%	5.40	3.48	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	71	321	77	32	5	0%	1.7	19.7%	10.7%	9.1%	1.8%	4.94	3.79	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	71	321	77	32	5	0%	1.7	19.7%	10.7%	9.1%	1.8%	4.94	3.79	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	71	321	77	32	5	0%	1.7	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	1.6%	4.94	3.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	67	0	70	296	57	38	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.8%	6.5%	2.6%	4.88	4.88	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	66	0	69	291	58	37	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.6%	7.2%	2.7%	4.85	4.87	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	64	0	67	282	56	35	8	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.5%	7.4%	2.8%	4.87	4.91	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	61	0	64	270	54	34	8	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.5%	7.3%	3.0%	4.94	5.01	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	25	0	26	110	22	14	3	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.6%	7.2%	2.7%	4.85	4.87	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	38	0	40	169	34	21	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.5%	7.4%	2.8%	4.87	4.91	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	43	0	45	190	38	24	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.5%	7.3%	3.0%	4.94	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	93	59	13	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.5%	7.3%	2.8%	4.89	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	106	23	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.5%	7.3%	2.8%	4.89	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		170	4	241	1101	228	130	18	2%	1.4	20.7%	11.8%	8.9%	1.6%	4.82	3.72	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	3	200	914	189	108	15	2%	1.4	20.7%	11.8%	8.9%	1.6%	4.82	3.72	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cy Nielson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	19.4%	12.8%	2.6%	—	4.93	19.8%	7.3%	200	+0.05	—	—	—
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	90
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	90
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	85
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	85
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	85
Tom Windle L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	26	SU	4.56	19.0%	11.8%	2.9%	.269	4.37	17.2%	1.8%	74	-0.19	3.68	330	84
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	84
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	84
Jeff Belge L 2024 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	19.4%	12.3%	2.1%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	175	83
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	83
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	83
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	83
Diego Barrera L 2024 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	17.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.310	4.55	17.9%	7.4%	89	+0.86	3.66	155	83
Rob Zastryzny L 2018 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	18.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.264	4.81	19.8%	10.8%	142	+0.50	3.31	634	82
Russell Smith L 2024 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	19.0%	13.9%	1.4%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	175	82
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	82
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	82
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	82
Renyel Pinto L 2008 · 4.82 FIP	26	SU	4.82	19.7%	13.0%	3.2%	.236	3.99	21.0%	6.3%	78	-0.83	3.58	231	82
Adam Kolarek L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	17.2%	10.3%	1.5%	.281	2.61	20.9%	12.0%	183	-1.19	2.20	504	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	19.7%	12.6%	1.06	4.88
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Rich Loiselle ('01)	1.1	56	17.2%	12.0%	0.88	4.38
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*